Union Berlin 0-0 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union Berlin at 40%, yet in-form Bayer Leverkusen provide a compelling counter-argument — this Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion An der Alten Försterei plays host to Union Berlin versus Bayer Leverkusen in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Saturday 29 April 2023 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
Union Berlin (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Union Berlin's home record at Stadion An der Alten Försterei: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion An der Alten Försterei. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Union Berlin are significantly better at Stadion An der Alten Försterei than their overall form suggests.
Bayer Leverkusen have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Bayer Leverkusen have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Bayer Leverkusen are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Union Berlin 0W, Bayer Leverkusen 1W, 2D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.7 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2022, ended 0–5 with Bayer Leverkusen winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Union Berlin — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Bayer Leverkusen — key trading statistics (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 56% versus Bayer Leverkusen 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 52% | Bayer Leverkusen 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.28 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.916 / defence 0.678 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.102 / defence 0.800. League average goals — home 1.744 / away 1.315. Union Berlin's defence rating of 0.678 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 63 Union Berlin games / 63 Bayer Leverkusen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 40% | Draw 35% | Bayer Leverkusen 25%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 2.50 | Draw 2.86 | Bayer Leverkusen 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union Berlin are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bayer Leverkusen (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union Berlin if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Union Berlin 50% | Bayer Leverkusen 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Apr 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 40% | Draw 35% | Bayer Leverkusen 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 49% | xG Union Berlin 1.28 / Bayer Leverkusen 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.916 / def 0.678 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.102 / def 0.800 | league avg home 1.744 / away 1.315 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Bayer Leverkusen xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 29 April 2023 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Union Berlin 0 - 0 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 40% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 25% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen?
Record (3 meetings): Union Berlin 0W | Draws 2 | Bayer Leverkusen 1W.
What form are Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Union Berlin's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Bayer Leverkusen's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. Flip it around — Bayer Leverkusen's attack (1.10x) against Union Berlin's defence (0.68x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
40%
2.51
35%
2.85
25%
3.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
2.26
0.98
Bayer Leverkusen xG
2.51
40%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
3.98
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
15%
6.70
7%
14.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 10.2 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.1 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Union Berlin and 0.98 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 63 outings, Union Berlin have picked up 1.78 PPG on a 32W 16D 15L record — W-W-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Bayer Leverkusen's form line: 33W 12D 18L from 63 games, 1.76 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.78 PPG for Union Berlin against 1.76 for Bayer Leverkusen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Union Berlin have posted 2.16 PPG from 31 outings (19W 10D 2L).
On the road, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 15W 8D 8L from 31 away games — 1.71 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Berlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Union Berlin are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 2.11 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bayer Leverkusen in 60%.
Last 63 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Current Season
Bayer Leverkusen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 32W 16D 15L in their last 63 games (1.78 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 33W 12D 18L in their last 63 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
Union Berlin's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 2.16 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Union Berlin or Bayer Leverkusen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union Berlin have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Bayer Leverkusen in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bayer Leverkusen won 5-0 on 6 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union Berlin have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bayer Leverkusen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Union Berlin
4
Draws
5
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 1, Bayer Leverkusen have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Union Berlin 1-0 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 55%, Bayer Leverkusen 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Union Berlin) and 68% (Bayer Leverkusen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 19% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Union Berlin keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play Bayer Leverkusen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Union Berlin's games and 68% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 45% of Union Berlin's matches and 68% of Bayer Leverkusen's.
Do Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Union Berlin's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen finished level at 0-0 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 30, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.28 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 0.98 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Union Berlin fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Bayer Leverkusen landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.92 / defence 0.68 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.10 / defence 0.80, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 40% | Draw 35% | Bayer Leverkusen 25%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 52%, Bayer Leverkusen 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union Berlin 1.78 PPG, Bayer Leverkusen 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Union Berlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.