Union Berlin 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Union Berlin at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion An der Alten Försterei plays host to Union Berlin versus Bayer Leverkusen in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Saturday 14 August 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
Union Berlin (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Union Berlin haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Union Berlin's home record at Stadion An der Alten Försterei: 5W 5D 0L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Union Berlin are significantly better at Stadion An der Alten Försterei than their overall form suggests.
Bayer Leverkusen have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Bayer Leverkusen haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Bayer Leverkusen have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Union Berlin, 1.20 for Bayer Leverkusen — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Union Berlin — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Bayer Leverkusen — key trading statistics (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union Berlin 68% and Bayer Leverkusen 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 50% | Bayer Leverkusen 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.55 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 1.016 / defence 0.933 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 0.871 / defence 0.891. League average goals — home 1.720 / away 1.283. Data: 34 Union Berlin games / 34 Bayer Leverkusen games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 47% | Draw 30% | Bayer Leverkusen 23%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | Bayer Leverkusen 4.35. Union Berlin hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union Berlin are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union Berlin if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.60 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 80% | Bayer Leverkusen 30% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Aug 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 47% | Draw 30% | Bayer Leverkusen 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 54% | xG Union Berlin 1.55 / Bayer Leverkusen 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 1.016 / def 0.933 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 0.871 / def 0.891 | league avg home 1.720 / away 1.283 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Bayer Leverkusen xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 14 August 2021 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Union Berlin 1 - 1 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 47% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 23% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Union Berlin (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Union Berlin's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Bayer Leverkusen's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. Flip it around — Bayer Leverkusen's attack (0.87x) against Union Berlin's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
47%
2.14
30%
3.30
23%
4.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
2.60
1.04
Bayer Leverkusen xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
4.36
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
16%
6.07
5%
20.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.1 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.04 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 34 outings, Union Berlin have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 12W 14D 8L record — L-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. Union Berlin haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Bayer Leverkusen's form line: 14W 10D 10L from 34 games, 1.53 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-L. Bayer Leverkusen haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Union Berlin against 1.53 for Bayer Leverkusen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Union Berlin have posted 1.88 PPG from 17 outings (8W 8D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.47 PPG overall — Union Berlin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 6W 5D 6L from 17 away games — 1.35 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Berlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Union Berlin are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 1.56 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Berlin have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 34 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Pre-Season
Bayer Leverkusen
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 12W 14D 8L in their last 34 games (1.47 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 14W 10D 10L in their last 34 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
Union Berlin's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.88 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bayer Leverkusen won 5-0 on 6 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union Berlin have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bayer Leverkusen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Union Berlin
4
Draws
5
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen?
From 10 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 1, Bayer Leverkusen have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Union Berlin 1-0 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 76%, Bayer Leverkusen 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Union Berlin) and 41% (Bayer Leverkusen).
On the defensive side: Bayer Leverkusen in 41%; Bayer Leverkusen in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play Bayer Leverkusen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of Union Berlin's games and 35% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Union Berlin's recent games and 41% of Bayer Leverkusen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 1, as Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.55 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.04 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 1.02 / defence 0.93 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 0.87 / defence 0.89, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 47% | Draw 30% | Bayer Leverkusen 23%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 50%, Bayer Leverkusen 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Union Berlin 1.47 PPG, Bayer Leverkusen 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Union Berlin (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.