Union Berlin 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen at 38% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion An der Alten Försterei plays host to Union Berlin versus Bayer Leverkusen in Bundesliga (matchday 12). Kick-off: Saturday 30 November 2024 at 14:30 UK time.
Form
Union Berlin (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Union Berlin's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bayer Leverkusen have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: W D D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Bayer Leverkusen have posted 6W 4D 0L from their last 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Union Berlin, 1.70 for Bayer Leverkusen — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Union Berlin's last 10 home games and Bayer Leverkusen's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Union Berlin's games and 80% of Bayer Leverkusen's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Bayer Leverkusen have the stronger record — 3 wins to Union Berlin's 0, with 2 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 2.8 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 6 Apr 2024, ended Union Berlin 0–1 Bayer Leverkusen — a Bayer Leverkusen win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Bayer Leverkusen have won 3 of 5 H2H matches, and at 2.8 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Union Berlin — key trading statistics (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
Bayer Leverkusen — key trading statistics (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 91% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 62% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 100%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Union Berlin 38% versus Bayer Leverkusen 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 42% | Bayer Leverkusen 73%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Union Berlin surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Bayer Leverkusen have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 100% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.20 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 0.834 / defence 0.821 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.196 / defence 0.869. League average goals — home 1.655 / away 1.401. Data: built from Union Berlin's last 45 games and Bayer Leverkusen's last 45.
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 30% | Draw 32% | Bayer Leverkusen 38%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 3.36 | Draw 3.11 | Bayer Leverkusen 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bayer Leverkusen are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Bayer Leverkusen 3 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bayer Leverkusen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — low conviction — though recent form (Union Berlin's last 10 home games and Bayer Leverkusen's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches point the other way.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Union Berlin 70% (last 10 home games) | Bayer Leverkusen 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 12 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Saturday 30 November 2024 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 30% | Draw 32% | Bayer Leverkusen 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Union Berlin 1.20 / Bayer Leverkusen 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 0.834 / def 0.821 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.196 / def 0.869 | league avg home 1.655 / away 1.401 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Bayer Leverkusen xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen FAQs
What time does Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Saturday 30 November 2024 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Union Berlin 1 - 2 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 12) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 30% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 38% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Union Berlin's attacking strength (0.83x league average) is weighed against Bayer Leverkusen's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. Flip it around — Bayer Leverkusen's attack (1.20x) against Union Berlin's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from Union Berlin's last 45 games and Bayer Leverkusen's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
30%
3.36
32%
3.11
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
2.58
1.38
Bayer Leverkusen xG
3.36
30%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
8%
13.32
11%
8.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 10.5 | 7.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.6 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.5 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.38 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 45 outings, Union Berlin have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 13W 10D 22L record — W-D-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Bayer Leverkusen's form line: 33W 11D 1L from 45 games, 2.44 PPG, last five W-D-D-D-W.
Put side by side, Bayer Leverkusen are the form team by 1.35 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Union Berlin.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Union Berlin have posted 1.55 PPG from their last 22 home games (10W 4D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 1.09 PPG overall — Union Berlin are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 16W 6D 0L from their last 22 away games — 2.45 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayer Leverkusen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Union Berlin are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 2.56 scored and 0.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bayer Leverkusen in 62%.
Defensively: Bayer Leverkusen in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Blended
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
Union Berlin (Home) vs Bayer Leverkusen (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Union Berlin
Blended
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
❓ Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen Form FAQs
What form are Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 13W 10D 22L in their last 45 games (1.09 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 33W 11D 1L in their last 45 (2.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
Bayer Leverkusen's away record (2.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.55 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 2.45 PPG.
Have Union Berlin or Bayer Leverkusen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Union Berlin have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Bayer Leverkusen in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to January 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 5 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bayer Leverkusen won Bayer Leverkusen 5-0 Union Berlin on 6 Nov 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union Berlin have gone 1W 1D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Bayer Leverkusen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Union Berlin
3
Draws
6
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Union Berlin have won 1, Bayer Leverkusen have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 September 2026: Bayer Leverkusen 4-0 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 68% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Union Berlin 50%, Bayer Leverkusen 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Union Berlin) and 64% (Bayer Leverkusen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bayer Leverkusen in 36%; Union Berlin have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Union Berlin vs Bayer Leverkusen Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Union Berlin's games and 64% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Union Berlin's matches and 64% of Bayer Leverkusen's.
Do Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Union Berlin's recent matches and 91% of Bayer Leverkusen's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bayer Leverkusen edge out Union Berlin 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayer Leverkusen beat Union Berlin 1-2 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 12, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.20 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.38 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 0.83 / defence 0.82 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.20 / defence 0.87, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 30% | Draw 32% | Bayer Leverkusen 38%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 42%, Bayer Leverkusen 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 2.44 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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