Union Berlin 5-0 Arminia Bielefeld – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Union Berlin at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Union Berlin vs Arminia Bielefeld encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Arminia Bielefeld make the trip to Stadion An der Alten Försterei to face Union Berlin in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Saturday 7 November 2020 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Union Berlin have collected 1.50 PPG across 6 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 3D 1L. Last five: D W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.83 goals per game, with 1.17 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 83% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Union Berlin have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Union Berlin's home record at Stadion An der Alten Försterei: 1W 1D 1L from 3 Bundesliga appearances (1.33 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Arminia Bielefeld's overall Bundesliga record this term: 1W 1D 4L from 6 games (0.67 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 1.67 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Arminia Bielefeld have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Arminia Bielefeld have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 away fixtures this term (0.33 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.83 in Union Berlin's favour (1.50 vs 0.67) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Union Berlin have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Arminia Bielefeld in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Union Berlin — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
Arminia Bielefeld — key trading statistics (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Union Berlin 83% and Arminia Bielefeld 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Union Berlin 50% | Arminia Bielefeld 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Union Berlin 1.54 xG and Arminia Bielefeld 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Union Berlin attack 1.026 / defence 1.140 | Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.708 / defence 1.220. League average goals — home 1.230 / away 1.387. Arminia Bielefeld bring a strong defensive rating of 1.220 — this is suppressing Union Berlin's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Union Berlin games / 6 Arminia Bielefeld games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Union Berlin 43% | Draw 33% | Arminia Bielefeld 24%. Fair-value odds: Union Berlin 2.33 | Draw 3.03 | Arminia Bielefeld 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union Berlin are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union Berlin if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Union Berlin 67% | Arminia Bielefeld 67% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Union Berlin vs Arminia Bielefeld | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadion An der Alten Försterei • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Nov 2020, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Union Berlin 43% | Draw 33% | Arminia Bielefeld 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 57% | xG Union Berlin 1.54 / Arminia Bielefeld 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Union Berlin attack 1.026 / def 1.140 | Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.708 / def 1.220 | league avg home 1.230 / away 1.387 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Union Berlin xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Arminia Bielefeld xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Union Berlin vs Arminia Bielefeld kick off?
Union Berlin vs Arminia Bielefeld kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 7 November 2020 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What was the final score in Union Berlin vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Union Berlin 5 - 0 Arminia Bielefeld.
Where is Union Berlin vs Arminia Bielefeld being played?
The match is being played at Stadion An der Alten Försterei.
What competition is Union Berlin vs Arminia Bielefeld part of?
Union Berlin vs Arminia Bielefeld is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Union Berlin vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our statistical model gives Union Berlin a 43% chance of winning, Arminia Bielefeld a 24% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Union Berlin vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Union Berlin and Arminia Bielefeld will score (BTTS).
Will Union Berlin vs Arminia Bielefeld have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Arminia Bielefeld?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Union Berlin and Arminia Bielefeld in?
Union Berlin (all comps): 2W-3D-1L in 6 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.83 / GA 1.17 | L5 D-W-D-D-W. Arminia Bielefeld (all comps): 1W-1D-4L in 6 | 0.67 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.67 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Union Berlin's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Arminia Bielefeld's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. Flip it around — Arminia Bielefeld's attack (0.71x) against Union Berlin's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
43%
2.31
33%
3.07
24%
4.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Union Berlin xG
Total xG
2.66
1.12
Arminia Bielefeld xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
4.16
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
14%
7.07
5%
19.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.8 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.1 | 6.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Union Berlin vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Union Berlin and Arminia Bielefeld expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Union Berlin and 1.12 for Arminia Bielefeld, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Union Berlin vs Arminia Bielefeld?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 6 outings, Union Berlin have picked up 1.50 PPG on a 2W 3D 1L record — D-W-D-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Union Berlin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Arminia Bielefeld's form line: 1W 1D 4L from 6 games, 0.67 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Arminia Bielefeld, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Union Berlin are the form team by 0.83 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Arminia Bielefeld.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Union Berlin have posted 1.33 PPG from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L).
On the road, Arminia Bielefeld have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 away games — 0.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Union Berlin come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Union Berlin are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Arminia Bielefeld are on 0.67 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Berlin have seen both teams score in 83% of their recent games.
Last 6 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Union Berlin
Early Season
Arminia Bielefeld
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Union Berlin and Arminia Bielefeld in coming into this match?
Union Berlin have gone 2W 3D 1L in their last 6 games (1.50 PPG), while Arminia Bielefeld have gone 1W 1D 4L in their last 6 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Union Berlin at home or Arminia Bielefeld away?
Union Berlin's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Union Berlin at home: 1.33 PPG; Arminia Bielefeld away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union Berlin won 5-0 on 7 Nov 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Union Berlin have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Arminia Bielefeld — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Union Berlin
1
Draws
1
Arminia Bielefeld
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Union Berlin and Arminia Bielefeld?
From 4 meetings on record, Union Berlin have won 2, Arminia Bielefeld have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Union Berlin and Arminia Bielefeld last play each other?
They last met on 19 February 2022, when Arminia Bielefeld 1-0 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between Union Berlin and Arminia Bielefeld?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Arminia Bielefeld are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Union Berlin, 67% for Arminia Bielefeld — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Union Berlin) and 33% (Arminia Bielefeld).
On the defensive side: Union Berlin keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Arminia Bielefeld in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Union Berlin home games / Arminia Bielefeld away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Union Berlin play Arminia Bielefeld?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Union Berlin's games and 67% of Arminia Bielefeld's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Union Berlin vs Arminia Bielefeld usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Union Berlin's recent games and 33% of Arminia Bielefeld's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Union Berlin and Arminia Bielefeld tend to score early?
Union Berlin have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Arminia Bielefeld in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Union Berlin run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Arminia Bielefeld.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin beat Arminia Bielefeld 5-0 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Regular Season - 7, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Union Berlin 1.54 xG and Arminia Bielefeld 1.12 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Union Berlin beat their projection by 3.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Arminia Bielefeld landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Union Berlin attack 1.03 / defence 1.14 against Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.71 / defence 1.22, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Union Berlin 43% | Draw 33% | Arminia Bielefeld 24%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Union Berlin 50%, Arminia Bielefeld 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Union Berlin's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did not.
Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Union Berlin arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.67. That form edge translated into the three points. Union Berlin (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Arminia Bielefeld (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.