SV Elversberg 4-3 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this SV Elversberg vs FC Augsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Augsburg make the trip to Ursapharm-Arena an der Kaiserlinde to face SV Elversberg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Form
SV Elversberg (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. SV Elversberg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SV Elversberg at Ursapharm-Arena an der Kaiserlinde this season: 7W 0D 3L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Augsburg have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W D L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. FC Augsburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, FC Augsburg have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — SV Elversberg have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, FC Augsburg in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
SV Elversberg — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
FC Augsburg — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SV Elversberg 56% and FC Augsburg 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Elversberg 59% | FC Augsburg 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Elversberg 1.84 xG and FC Augsburg 2.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Elversberg attack 0.908 / defence 1.155 | FC Augsburg attack 1.214 / defence 1.016. League average goals — home 1.999 / away 1.425. FC Augsburg have an above-average attack strength of 1.214 — the away xG of 2.00 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 5 SV Elversberg games / 39 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Elversberg 36% | Draw 21% | FC Augsburg 42%. Fair-value odds: SV Elversberg 2.78 | Draw 4.76 | FC Augsburg 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 21% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.84. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.84 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (1.84 / 2.00) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Augsburg are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 74% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 73% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SV Elversberg 60% | FC Augsburg 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Elversberg vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Ursapharm-Arena an der Kaiserlinde • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Elversberg 36% | Draw 21% | FC Augsburg 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 73% | xG SV Elversberg 1.84 / FC Augsburg 2.00 • Poisson strength factors: SV Elversberg attack 0.908 / def 1.155 | FC Augsburg attack 1.214 / def 1.016 | league avg home 1.999 / away 1.425 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
SV Elversberg xG
Expected Goals
2.00
FC Augsburg xG
73%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Elversberg vs FC Augsburg kick off?
SV Elversberg vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Ursapharm-Arena an der Kaiserlinde.
What was the final score in SV Elversberg vs FC Augsburg?
SV Elversberg 4 - 3 FC Augsburg.
Where is SV Elversberg vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at Ursapharm-Arena an der Kaiserlinde.
What competition is SV Elversberg vs FC Augsburg part of?
SV Elversberg vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Elversberg vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives SV Elversberg a 36% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 42% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Elversberg vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both SV Elversberg and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will SV Elversberg vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Elversberg and FC Augsburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SV Elversberg and FC Augsburg in?
SV Elversberg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. FC Augsburg (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from SV Elversberg's attack rating (0.91) and FC Augsburg's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.84 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Augsburg's attack (1.21x) against SV Elversberg's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 2.00.
These ratings are built from 5/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (7.9%), 2-1 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
36%
2.74
21%
4.74
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
SV Elversberg xG
Total xG
3.84
2.00
FC Augsburg xG
2.74
36%
Home win
4.74
21%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.68
Clean Sheet
14%
7.38
16%
6.33
Win to Nil
5%
20.26
7%
14.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 7.9 | 7.9 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 7.3 | 7.3 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Elversberg vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.9%.
How many goals are SV Elversberg and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for SV Elversberg and 2.00 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 3.84.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Elversberg vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SV Elversberg come into this having played 39 games, going 20W 9D 10L for 1.77 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for SV Elversberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FC Augsburg sit at 1.31 PPG from 39 outings (14W 9D 16L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Augsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SV Elversberg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
SV Elversberg's home form reads 12W 4D 3L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.11 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Augsburg have taken 1.05 points per game from 19 outings (6W 2D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Elversberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SV Elversberg are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.49 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Augsburg in 64%.
Last 39 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Elversberg
Early Season
FC Augsburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Elversberg and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
SV Elversberg have gone 20W 9D 10L in their last 39 games (1.77 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 14W 9D 16L in their last 39 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Elversberg at home or FC Augsburg away?
SV Elversberg's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Elversberg at home: 2.11 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 1 times since October 2026 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 17 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
SV Elversberg
0
Draws
0
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Elversberg and FC Augsburg?
From 1 meetings on record, SV Elversberg have won 1, FC Augsburg have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SV Elversberg and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2026, when SV Elversberg 4-3 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between SV Elversberg and FC Augsburg?
SV Elversberg have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SV Elversberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Elversberg 53%, FC Augsburg 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for SV Elversberg and 74% for FC Augsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SV Elversberg keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; FC Augsburg in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Elversberg home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Elversberg play FC Augsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of SV Elversberg's games and 68% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SV Elversberg vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of SV Elversberg's matches and 74% of FC Augsburg's.
Do SV Elversberg and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
SV Elversberg have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SV Elversberg defy the odds to beat FC Augsburg 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Elversberg beat FC Augsburg 4-3 at Ursapharm-Arena an der Kaiserlinde, Regular Season - 6, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Elversberg 1.84 xG and FC Augsburg 2.00 xG, a combined 3.84. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. SV Elversberg beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Augsburg outscored their 2.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Elversberg attack 0.91 / defence 1.16 against FC Augsburg attack 1.21 / defence 1.02, drawn from 5/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Elversberg 36% | Draw 21% | FC Augsburg 42%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual SV Elversberg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Elversberg 59%, FC Augsburg 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Elversberg's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Elversberg arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.31. That form edge translated into the three points. SV Elversberg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.05 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.