SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0-0 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Freiburg at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SC Freiburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer plays host to SpVgg Greuther Fürth versus SC Freiburg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Saturday 19 March 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
SC Freiburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Freiburg away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. SC Freiburg are 0.80 PPG clear of SpVgg Greuther Fürth in recent Bundesliga fixtures (1.80 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — SpVgg Greuther Fürth have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, SC Freiburg in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — SpVgg Greuther Fürth lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2021, ended 1–3 with SC Freiburg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
SpVgg Greuther Fürth goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
SC Freiburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 69% and SC Freiburg 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 73% | SC Freiburg 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.05 xG and SC Freiburg 1.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.737 / defence 1.390 | SC Freiburg attack 1.021 / defence 0.856. League average goals — home 1.666 / away 1.369. SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack strength of 0.737 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 26 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games / 60 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 20% | Draw 22% | SC Freiburg 58%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 5.00 | Draw 4.55 | SC Freiburg 1.72. The model has a clear lean to SC Freiburg (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SC Freiburg as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.99 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60% | SC Freiburg 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Mar 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 20% | Draw 22% | SC Freiburg 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 56% | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.05 / SC Freiburg 1.94 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.737 / def 1.390 | SC Freiburg attack 1.021 / def 0.856 | league avg home 1.666 / away 1.369 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
1.94
SC Freiburg xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SC Freiburg kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 19 March 2022 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What was the final score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SC Freiburg?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0 - 0 SC Freiburg.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SC Freiburg part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SC Freiburg is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 20% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 58% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SC Freiburg will score (BTTS).
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SC Freiburg?
Record (1 meetings): SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0W | Draws 0 | SC Freiburg 1W.
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SC Freiburg in?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. SC Freiburg (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack rating (0.74) and SC Freiburg's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SC Freiburg's attack (1.02x) against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 1.94.
These ratings are built from 26/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
20%
5.01
22%
4.54
58%
1.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
2.99
1.94
SC Freiburg xG
5.01
20%
Home win
4.54
22%
Draw
1.72
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
14%
6.97
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
3%
34.90
20%
4.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 9.8 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1.94 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SC Freiburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SpVgg Greuther Fürth come into this having played 26 games, going 3W 5D 18L for 0.54 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-L. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SC Freiburg sit at 1.69 PPG from 26 outings (12W 8D 6L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Freiburg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.15 PPG clear of SpVgg Greuther Fürth — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home form reads 3W 4D 6L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.54 PPG overall — SpVgg Greuther Fürth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, SC Freiburg have taken 1.46 points per game from 13 outings (5W 4D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Freiburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 2.69 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.65 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; SC Freiburg in 62%.
Last 26 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
SC Freiburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 3W 5D 18L in their last 26 games (0.54 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 12W 8D 6L in their last 26 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home or SC Freiburg away?
SC Freiburg's away record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 1.00 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 1.46 PPG.
Have SpVgg Greuther Fürth or SC Freiburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have kept a clean sheet in 12% of their recent games, SC Freiburg in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1
Draws
1
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SC Freiburg?
From 2 meetings on record, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 0, SC Freiburg have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SC Freiburg last play each other?
They last met on 19 March 2022, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0-0 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SC Freiburg?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SpVgg Greuther Fürth see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 62%, SC Freiburg 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth) and 54% (SC Freiburg).
On the defensive side: SC Freiburg in 38%; SpVgg Greuther Fürth have failed to score in 31% of games; SC Freiburg in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SpVgg Greuther Fürth play SC Freiburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's games and 54% of SC Freiburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SC Freiburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent games and 54% of SC Freiburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SC Freiburg tend to score early?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, SC Freiburg in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at SpVgg Greuther Fürth's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SC Freiburg finished level at 0-0 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 27, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.05 xG and SC Freiburg 1.94 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. SpVgg Greuther Fürth fell 1.1 short of their projected output. SC Freiburg landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.74 / defence 1.39 against SC Freiburg attack 1.02 / defence 0.86, drawn from 26/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 20% | Draw 22% | SC Freiburg 58%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 73%, SC Freiburg 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SC Freiburg's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Freiburg arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 0.54. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.