SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-6 RB Leipzig – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates RB Leipzig at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs RB Leipzig encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees RB Leipzig travel to Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer to take on SpVgg Greuther Fürth. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 March 2022, 18:30 UTC.
Form Guide
SpVgg Greuther Fürth — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, RB Leipzig stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for RB Leipzig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RB Leipzig away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. RB Leipzig are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SpVgg Greuther Fürth register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, RB Leipzig in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, 1 for RB Leipzig and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2021, ended 1–4 with RB Leipzig winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
RB Leipzig in-play and half-time data (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 68% and RB Leipzig 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 72% | RB Leipzig 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.00 xG and RB Leipzig 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.731 / defence 1.104 | RB Leipzig attack 1.230 / defence 0.806. League average goals — home 1.697 / away 1.326. SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack strength of 0.731 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. RB Leipzig have an above-average attack strength of 1.230 — the away xG of 1.80 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 25 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games / 59 RB Leipzig games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 20% | Draw 24% | RB Leipzig 56%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 5.00 | Draw 4.17 | RB Leipzig 1.79. The model has a clear lean to RB Leipzig (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is RB Leipzig at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60% | RB Leipzig 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs RB Leipzig | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Mar 2022, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 20% | Draw 24% | RB Leipzig 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 53% | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.00 / RB Leipzig 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.731 / def 1.104 | RB Leipzig attack 1.230 / def 0.806 | league avg home 1.697 / away 1.326 • Poisson stance: RB Leipzig (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
1.80
RB Leipzig xG
53%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs RB Leipzig kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs RB Leipzig kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 13 March 2022 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What was the final score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs RB Leipzig?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1 - 6 RB Leipzig.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs RB Leipzig being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs RB Leipzig part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs RB Leipzig is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs RB Leipzig?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 20% chance of winning, RB Leipzig a 56% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making RB Leipzig the favourite.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs RB Leipzig?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and RB Leipzig will score (BTTS).
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs RB Leipzig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and RB Leipzig?
Record (1 meetings): SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0W | Draws 0 | RB Leipzig 1W.
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and RB Leipzig in?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. RB Leipzig (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against RB Leipzig's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. The same calculation in reverse, RB Leipzig's attack versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence, projects 1.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Leipzig Win
20%
4.92
24%
4.18
56%
1.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
2.80
1.80
RB Leipzig xG
4.92
20%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
1.79
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
16%
6.06
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
3%
29.80
20%
4.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.9 | 9.9 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs RB Leipzig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and RB Leipzig expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1.80 for RB Leipzig, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs RB Leipzig?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent record stands at 3W 5D 17L from 25 games, a 0.56 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RB Leipzig, meanwhile, have gone 12W 5D 8L across 25 games — 1.64 PPG, with L-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for RB Leipzig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours RB Leipzig by 1.08 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SpVgg Greuther Fürth heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have managed 3W 4D 5L from 12 games — 1.08 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.56 PPG overall — SpVgg Greuther Fürth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
RB Leipzig's away record stands at 3W 4D 5L across 12 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.64 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of RB Leipzig's season.
Goals in Recent Form
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 2.56 conceded per game recently; RB Leipzig are on 2.04 scored and 1.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; RB Leipzig in 60%.
Last 25 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
RB Leipzig
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and RB Leipzig in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 3W 5D 17L in their last 25 games (0.56 PPG), while RB Leipzig have gone 12W 5D 8L in their last 25 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home or RB Leipzig away?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 1.08 PPG; RB Leipzig away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
0
Draws
2
RB Leipzig
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and RB Leipzig?
From 2 meetings on record, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 0, RB Leipzig have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and RB Leipzig last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2022, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-6 RB Leipzig.
Who has won more matches between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and RB Leipzig?
RB Leipzig have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SpVgg Greuther Fürth see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 58%, RB Leipzig 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 42% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 25% for RB Leipzig.
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / RB Leipzig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SpVgg Greuther Fürth play RB Leipzig?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's games and 58% of RB Leipzig's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs RB Leipzig usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent games and 25% of RB Leipzig's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and RB Leipzig tend to score early?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, RB Leipzig in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant RB Leipzig run riot with a 1-6 hammering of SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Leipzig beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-6 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 26, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.00 xG and RB Leipzig 1.80 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-6 for 7 actual goals. RB Leipzig outscored their 1.80 projection by 4.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.73 / defence 1.10 against RB Leipzig attack 1.23 / defence 0.81, drawn from 25/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 20% | Draw 24% | RB Leipzig 56%, with RB Leipzig to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 72%, RB Leipzig 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
RB Leipzig's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, RB Leipzig arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 0.56. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual. RB Leipzig (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.