SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3-6 1899 Hoffenheim – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates 1899 Hoffenheim at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1899 Hoffenheim encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees 1899 Hoffenheim travel to Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer to take on SpVgg Greuther Fürth. The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 November 2021, 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
SpVgg Greuther Fürth — All Games: 0W 0D 10L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.00 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's form when playing at home: 0W 1D 4L across 5 games at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer this term (0.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, 1899 Hoffenheim have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for 1899 Hoffenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1899 Hoffenheim away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour 1899 Hoffenheim — 1.30 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play and half-time data (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
1899 Hoffenheim in-play and half-time data (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 58%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 67% versus 1899 Hoffenheim 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 75% | 1899 Hoffenheim 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.13 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.620 / defence 1.266 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.862 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.685 / away 1.183. SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack strength of 0.620 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 12 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games / 46 1899 Hoffenheim games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 29% | Draw 33% | 1899 Hoffenheim 37%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3.45 | Draw 3.03 | 1899 Hoffenheim 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, 1899 Hoffenheim are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1899 Hoffenheim offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60% | 1899 Hoffenheim 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1899 Hoffenheim | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 29% | Draw 33% | 1899 Hoffenheim 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 52% | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.13 / 1899 Hoffenheim 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.620 / def 1.266 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.862 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.685 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: 1899 Hoffenheim (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
1.29
1899 Hoffenheim xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1899 Hoffenheim kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1899 Hoffenheim kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What was the final score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3 - 6 1899 Hoffenheim.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1899 Hoffenheim being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1899 Hoffenheim part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1899 Hoffenheim is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 29% chance of winning, 1899 Hoffenheim a 37% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making 1899 Hoffenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1899 Hoffenheim will score (BTTS).
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1899 Hoffenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1899 Hoffenheim?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1899 Hoffenheim in?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 0W-0D-10L in 10 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. 1899 Hoffenheim (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attacking strength (0.62x league average) is weighed against 1899 Hoffenheim's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. The same calculation in reverse, 1899 Hoffenheim's attack versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
1899 Hoffenheim Win
29%
3.39
33%
2.99
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
2.42
1.29
1899 Hoffenheim xG
3.39
29%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
8%
12.33
12%
8.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 11.4 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1899 Hoffenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1.29 for 1899 Hoffenheim, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent record stands at 0W 1D 11L from 12 games, a 0.08 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
1899 Hoffenheim, meanwhile, have gone 5W 2D 5L across 12 games — 1.42 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for 1899 Hoffenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours 1899 Hoffenheim by 1.34 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SpVgg Greuther Fürth heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have managed 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — 0.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
1899 Hoffenheim's away record stands at 0W 1D 4L across 5 trips, a 0.20 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.42 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of 1899 Hoffenheim's season.
The Goals Picture
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.75 conceded per game recently; 1899 Hoffenheim are on 1.75 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Defensively: 1899 Hoffenheim in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
1899 Hoffenheim
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1899 Hoffenheim in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 0W 1D 11L in their last 12 games (0.08 PPG), while 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 5W 2D 5L in their last 12 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home or 1899 Hoffenheim away?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record (0.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 0.20 PPG; 1899 Hoffenheim away: 0.20 PPG.
Have SpVgg Greuther Fürth or 1899 Hoffenheim been keeping clean sheets recently?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, 1899 Hoffenheim in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1899 Hoffenheim runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1
Draws
1
1899 Hoffenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1899 Hoffenheim?
From 2 meetings on record, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 0, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1899 Hoffenheim last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2022, when 1899 Hoffenheim 0-0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Who has won more matches between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1899 Hoffenheim?
1899 Hoffenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
1899 Hoffenheim see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60%, 1899 Hoffenheim 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth) and 60% (1899 Hoffenheim).
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have failed to score in 40% of games; 1899 Hoffenheim in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / 1899 Hoffenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SpVgg Greuther Fürth play 1899 Hoffenheim?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent matches and 40% of 1899 Hoffenheim's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1899 Hoffenheim usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent games and 60% of 1899 Hoffenheim's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1899 Hoffenheim tend to score early?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, 1899 Hoffenheim in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant 1899 Hoffenheim run riot with a 3-6 hammering of SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1899 Hoffenheim beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3-6 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 13, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.13 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.29 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 3-6 for 9 actual goals. SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. 1899 Hoffenheim outscored their 1.29 projection by 4.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.62 / defence 1.27 against 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.86 / defence 1.08, drawn from 12/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 29% | Draw 33% | 1899 Hoffenheim 37%, with 1899 Hoffenheim to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 9, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 75%, 1899 Hoffenheim 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, 1899 Hoffenheim arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 6 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.