SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Paderborn 07 at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SC Paderborn 07 host FC Schalke 04 at Home Deluxe Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 November 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. SC Paderborn 07 have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SC Paderborn 07 at Home Deluxe Arena this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — SC Paderborn 07 are significantly better at Home Deluxe Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Schalke 04 stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. FC Schalke 04 have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, FC Schalke 04 have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (SC Paderborn 07) versus 2.00 (FC Schalke 04). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SC Paderborn 07 register both teams scoring in 100% of relevant matches, FC Schalke 04 in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
FC Schalke 04 have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 8 encounters against SC Paderborn 07's 2 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2026, ended 2–3 with FC Schalke 04 winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. FC Schalke 04 have won 5 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
SC Paderborn 07 in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games).
FC Schalke 04 in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Paderborn 07 63% versus FC Schalke 04 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 60% | FC Schalke 04 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 2.09 xG and FC Schalke 04 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.861 / defence 1.150 | FC Schalke 04 attack 0.688 / defence 1.251. League average goals — home 1.939 / away 1.339. FC Schalke 04 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.251 — this is suppressing SC Paderborn 07's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 1 SC Paderborn 07 games / 1 FC Schalke 04 games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 60% | Draw 22% | FC Schalke 04 18%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 1.67 | Draw 4.55 | FC Schalke 04 5.56. The model has a clear lean to SC Paderborn 07 (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SC Paderborn 07 are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.15 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: SC Paderborn 07 100% | FC Schalke 04 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 60% | Draw 22% | FC Schalke 04 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 58% | xG SC Paderborn 07 2.09 / FC Schalke 04 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.861 / def 1.150 | FC Schalke 04 attack 0.688 / def 1.251 | league avg home 1.939 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.06
FC Schalke 04 xG
58%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Saturday 28 November 2026 at Home Deluxe Arena.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 60% chance of winning, FC Schalke 04 a 18% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04 will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04?
Record (8 meetings): SC Paderborn 07 2W | Draws 1 | FC Schalke 04 5W.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04 in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-D-W-D. FC Schalke 04 (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SC Paderborn 07's attack rating (0.86) and FC Schalke 04's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 2.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Schalke 04's attack versus SC Paderborn 07's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
60%
1.66
22%
4.48
18%
5.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
3.15
1.06
FC Schalke 04 xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
5.70
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
12%
8.08
Win to Nil
21%
4.80
2%
46.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.0 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04 expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.06 for FC Schalke 04, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SC Paderborn 07's recent record stands at 18W 9D 8L from 35 games, a 1.80 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Schalke 04, meanwhile, have gone 21W 7D 7L across 35 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-W-L-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Schalke 04, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: SC Paderborn 07 on 1.80 PPG, FC Schalke 04 on 2.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SC Paderborn 07 have managed 10W 3D 4L from 17 games — 1.94 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Schalke 04's away record stands at 8W 4D 5L across 17 trips, a 1.65 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; FC Schalke 04 are on 1.43 scored and 0.97 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: FC Schalke 04 in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Early Season
FC Schalke 04
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04 in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 18W 9D 8L in their last 35 games (1.80 PPG), while FC Schalke 04 have gone 21W 7D 7L in their last 35 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or FC Schalke 04 away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.94 PPG; FC Schalke 04 away: 1.65 PPG.
Have SC Paderborn 07 or FC Schalke 04 been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Paderborn 07 have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, FC Schalke 04 in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04 runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Schalke 04 go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
SC Paderborn 07's record when hosting FC Schalke 04 specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
SC Paderborn 07
1
Draws
5
FC Schalke 04
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04?
From 8 meetings on record, SC Paderborn 07 have won 2, FC Schalke 04 have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04 last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when SC Paderborn 07 2-3 FC Schalke 04.
Who has won more matches between SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04?
FC Schalke 04 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
FC Schalke 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Paderborn 07 82%, FC Schalke 04 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for SC Paderborn 07 and 53% for FC Schalke 04. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 6% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Schalke 04 in 35%; FC Schalke 04 in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / FC Schalke 04 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play FC Schalke 04?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 47% of FC Schalke 04's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 53% of FC Schalke 04's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04 tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, FC Schalke 04 in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.