SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Schalke 04 at 38% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SC Paderborn 07 host FC Schalke 04 at Home Deluxe Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 November 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. SC Paderborn 07 have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SC Paderborn 07 at Home Deluxe Arena this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Schalke 04 stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. FC Schalke 04 have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, FC Schalke 04 have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (SC Paderborn 07) versus 1.40 (FC Schalke 04). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
FC Schalke 04 have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 8 encounters against SC Paderborn 07's 2 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2026, ended 2–3 with FC Schalke 04 winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. FC Schalke 04 have won 5 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
SC Paderborn 07 in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
FC Schalke 04 in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Paderborn 07 60% versus FC Schalke 04 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 60% | FC Schalke 04 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.40 xG and FC Schalke 04 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.664 / defence 1.110 | FC Schalke 04 attack 0.919 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 2.023 / away 1.400. SC Paderborn 07's attack strength of 0.664 is below the league average — the 1.40 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 6 SC Paderborn 07 games / 6 FC Schalke 04 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 37% | Draw 25% | FC Schalke 04 38%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 2.70 | Draw 4.00 | FC Schalke 04 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Schalke 04 are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Schalke 04 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: SC Paderborn 07 80% | FC Schalke 04 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 37% | Draw 25% | FC Schalke 04 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG SC Paderborn 07 1.40 / FC Schalke 04 1.43 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.664 / def 1.110 | FC Schalke 04 attack 0.919 / def 1.040 | league avg home 2.023 / away 1.400 • Poisson stance: FC Schalke 04 (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.43
FC Schalke 04 xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Saturday 28 November 2026 at Home Deluxe Arena.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 37% chance of winning, FC Schalke 04 a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FC Schalke 04 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04 will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04?
Record (8 meetings): SC Paderborn 07 2W | Draws 1 | FC Schalke 04 5W.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04 in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. FC Schalke 04 (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SC Paderborn 07's attack rating (0.66) and FC Schalke 04's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Schalke 04's attack versus SC Paderborn 07's defence, projects 1.43 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Schalke 04 Win
37%
2.72
25%
3.98
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
2.83
1.43
FC Schalke 04 xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
24%
4.17
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
9%
11.35
9%
10.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 8.5 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.8 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.3 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04 expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.43 for FC Schalke 04, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SC Paderborn 07's recent record stands at 19W 10D 11L from 40 games, a 1.68 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Schalke 04, meanwhile, have gone 22W 9D 9L across 40 games — 1.88 PPG, with D-W-D-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Schalke 04, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: SC Paderborn 07 on 1.68 PPG, FC Schalke 04 on 1.88. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, SC Paderborn 07 have managed 11W 3D 6L from 20 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Schalke 04's away record stands at 9W 4D 7L across 20 trips, a 1.55 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; FC Schalke 04 are on 1.35 scored and 0.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: FC Schalke 04 in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Early Season
FC Schalke 04
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04 in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 19W 10D 11L in their last 40 games (1.68 PPG), while FC Schalke 04 have gone 22W 9D 9L in their last 40 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or FC Schalke 04 away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.80 PPG; FC Schalke 04 away: 1.55 PPG.
Have SC Paderborn 07 or FC Schalke 04 been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Paderborn 07 have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, FC Schalke 04 in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04 runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Schalke 04 go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
SC Paderborn 07's record when hosting FC Schalke 04 specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
SC Paderborn 07
1
Draws
5
FC Schalke 04
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04?
From 8 meetings on record, SC Paderborn 07 have won 2, FC Schalke 04 have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04 last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when SC Paderborn 07 2-3 FC Schalke 04.
Who has won more matches between SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04?
FC Schalke 04 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
FC Schalke 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Paderborn 07 75%, FC Schalke 04 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for SC Paderborn 07 and 55% for FC Schalke 04. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 10% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Schalke 04 in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / FC Schalke 04 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play FC Schalke 04?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 50% of FC Schalke 04's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs FC Schalke 04 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 55% of FC Schalke 04's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and FC Schalke 04 tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, FC Schalke 04 in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.