SC Paderborn 07 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SC Paderborn 07 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
SC Paderborn 07 and Borussia Mönchengladbach meet at Home Deluxe Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 March 2027 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
SC Paderborn 07's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Paderborn 07's home record at Home Deluxe Arena: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Borussia Mönchengladbach have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L L L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.50. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. SC Paderborn 07's 1.30 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Borussia Mönchengladbach's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — SC Paderborn 07 have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — SC Paderborn 07 lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
SC Paderborn 07 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Borussia Mönchengladbach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Paderborn 07 57% versus Borussia Mönchengladbach 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Paderborn 07 57% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Paderborn 07 1.46 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.662 / defence 0.954 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.955 / defence 1.158. League average goals — home 1.897 / away 1.375. SC Paderborn 07's attack strength of 0.662 is below the league average — the 1.46 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 8 SC Paderborn 07 games / 42 Borussia Mönchengladbach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 41% | Draw 27% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 32%. Fair-value odds: SC Paderborn 07 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SC Paderborn 07 as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SC Paderborn 07 70% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Paderborn 07 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Home Deluxe Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Mar 2027, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Paderborn 07 41% | Draw 27% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG SC Paderborn 07 1.46 / Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.662 / def 0.954 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.955 / def 1.158 | league avg home 1.897 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Paderborn 07 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kick off?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Saturday 6 March 2027 at Home Deluxe Arena.
Where is SC Paderborn 07 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach being played?
The match is being played at Home Deluxe Arena.
What competition is SC Paderborn 07 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach part of?
SC Paderborn 07 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Paderborn 07 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our statistical model gives SC Paderborn 07 a 41% chance of winning, Borussia Mönchengladbach a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Paderborn 07 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both SC Paderborn 07 and Borussia Mönchengladbach will score (BTTS).
Will SC Paderborn 07 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Record (1 meetings): SC Paderborn 07 0W | Draws 1 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 0W.
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and Borussia Mönchengladbach in?
SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from SC Paderborn 07's attack rating (0.66) and Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack (0.95x) against SC Paderborn 07's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 8/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
41%
2.42
27%
3.74
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
SC Paderborn 07 xG
Total xG
2.71
1.25
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
12%
8.48
7%
13.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.4 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.2 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Paderborn 07 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are SC Paderborn 07 and Borussia Mönchengladbach expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for SC Paderborn 07 and 1.25 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Paderborn 07 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 42 outings, SC Paderborn 07 have picked up 1.69 PPG on a 20W 11D 11L record — W-L-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's form line: 10W 12D 20L from 42 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-D. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SC Paderborn 07 are the form team by 0.69 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Borussia Mönchengladbach.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 1.86 PPG from 21 outings (12W 3D 6L).
On the road, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 4W 5D 12L from 21 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Paderborn 07 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SC Paderborn 07 are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Borussia Mönchengladbach are on 1.26 scored and 1.79 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Paderborn 07 and Borussia Mönchengladbach in coming into this match?
SC Paderborn 07 have gone 20W 11D 11L in their last 42 games (1.69 PPG), while Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 10W 12D 20L in their last 42 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Paderborn 07 at home or Borussia Mönchengladbach away?
SC Paderborn 07's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Paderborn 07 at home: 1.86 PPG; Borussia Mönchengladbach away: 0.81 PPG.
Have SC Paderborn 07 or Borussia Mönchengladbach been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Paderborn 07 have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 31 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
SC Paderborn 07
1
Draws
0
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Paderborn 07 and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
From 1 meetings on record, SC Paderborn 07 have won 0, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SC Paderborn 07 and Borussia Mönchengladbach last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2026, when Borussia Mönchengladbach 0-0 SC Paderborn 07.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SC Paderborn 07 71%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for SC Paderborn 07 and 62% for Borussia Mönchengladbach. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Mönchengladbach in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Paderborn 07 home games / Borussia Mönchengladbach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Paderborn 07 play Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of SC Paderborn 07's games and 48% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Paderborn 07 vs Borussia Mönchengladbach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of SC Paderborn 07's matches and 62% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's.
Do SC Paderborn 07 and Borussia Mönchengladbach tend to score early?
SC Paderborn 07 have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.