SC Freiburg 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Freiburg at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bayer Leverkusen make the trip to Europa-Park Stadion to face SC Freiburg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Sunday 26 February 2023 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
SC Freiburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: D W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Europa-Park Stadion, SC Freiburg have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bayer Leverkusen have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W L L W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bayer Leverkusen's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — SC Freiburg lead 2W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2022, ended 3–2 with SC Freiburg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
SC Freiburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Bayer Leverkusen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SC Freiburg 58% versus Bayer Leverkusen 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SC Freiburg 62% | Bayer Leverkusen 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SC Freiburg 1.79 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SC Freiburg attack 1.000 / defence 0.865 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.150 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.864 / away 1.279. Data: 55 SC Freiburg games / 55 Bayer Leverkusen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SC Freiburg 48% | Draw 27% | Bayer Leverkusen 25%. Fair-value odds: SC Freiburg 2.08 | Draw 3.70 | Bayer Leverkusen 4.00. SC Freiburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SC Freiburg as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SC Freiburg if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.07 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SC Freiburg 60% | Bayer Leverkusen 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Europa-Park Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Feb 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SC Freiburg 48% | Draw 27% | Bayer Leverkusen 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG SC Freiburg 1.79 / Bayer Leverkusen 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: SC Freiburg attack 1.000 / def 0.865 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.150 / def 0.963 | league avg home 1.864 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
SC Freiburg xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Bayer Leverkusen xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 26 February 2023 at Europa-Park Stadion.
What was the final score in SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
SC Freiburg 1 - 1 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at Europa-Park Stadion.
What competition is SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives SC Freiburg a 48% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both SC Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen will score (BTTS).
Will SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen?
Record (3 meetings): SC Freiburg 2W | Draws 0 | Bayer Leverkusen 1W.
What form are SC Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen in?
SC Freiburg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from SC Freiburg's attack rating (1.00) and Bayer Leverkusen's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.79 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bayer Leverkusen's attack (1.15x) against SC Freiburg's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
48%
2.09
27%
3.71
25%
3.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
SC Freiburg xG
Total xG
3.07
1.27
Bayer Leverkusen xG
2.09
48%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.96
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
17%
6.02
Win to Nil
13%
7.47
4%
23.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 10.6 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are SC Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for SC Freiburg and 1.27 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SC Freiburg come into this having played 55 games, going 27W 14D 14L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-W. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Bayer Leverkusen sit at 1.65 PPG from 55 outings (27W 10D 18L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Bayer Leverkusen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.73 PPG for SC Freiburg against 1.65 for Bayer Leverkusen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
SC Freiburg's home form reads 15W 7D 5L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.93 PPG return.
Away from home, Bayer Leverkusen have taken 1.67 points per game from 27 outings (13W 6D 8L).
Attack vs Defence
SC Freiburg are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 2.09 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bayer Leverkusen in 60%.
Last 55 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SC Freiburg
Blended
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SC Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
SC Freiburg have gone 27W 14D 14L in their last 55 games (1.73 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 27W 10D 18L in their last 55 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SC Freiburg at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
SC Freiburg's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SC Freiburg at home: 1.93 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 1.67 PPG.
Have SC Freiburg or Bayer Leverkusen been keeping clean sheets recently?
SC Freiburg have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Bayer Leverkusen in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bayer Leverkusen won 5-1 on 21 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SC Freiburg have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bayer Leverkusen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
SC Freiburg
3
Draws
5
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SC Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen?
From 10 meetings on record, SC Freiburg have won 2, Bayer Leverkusen have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did SC Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when SC Freiburg 3-3 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between SC Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for SC Freiburg, 70% for Bayer Leverkusen — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for SC Freiburg and 70% for Bayer Leverkusen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SC Freiburg home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SC Freiburg play Bayer Leverkusen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of SC Freiburg's games and 70% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SC Freiburg vs Bayer Leverkusen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of SC Freiburg's matches and 70% of Bayer Leverkusen's.
Do SC Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen tend to score early?
SC Freiburg have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SC Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen finished level at 1-1 at Europa-Park Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SC Freiburg 1.79 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.27 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SC Freiburg attack 1.00 / defence 0.86 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.15 / defence 0.96, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SC Freiburg 48% | Draw 27% | Bayer Leverkusen 25%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SC Freiburg 62%, Bayer Leverkusen 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SC Freiburg's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SC Freiburg 1.73 PPG, Bayer Leverkusen 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.