Hertha BSC 2-1 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hertha BSC at 40%, yet in-form VfB Stuttgart provide a compelling counter-argument — this Hertha BSC vs VfB Stuttgart fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hertha BSC host VfB Stuttgart at Olympiastadion Berlin in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 6 May 2023 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Hertha BSC — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Hertha BSC at Olympiastadion Berlin this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Hertha BSC are significantly better at Olympiastadion Berlin than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, VfB Stuttgart have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
VfB Stuttgart's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. VfB Stuttgart's 1.20 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Hertha BSC's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Hertha BSC have won 1, VfB Stuttgart 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Nov 2022, ended 1–2 with VfB Stuttgart winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Hertha BSC in-play tendencies (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
VfB Stuttgart in-play tendencies (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hertha BSC 59% and VfB Stuttgart 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hertha BSC 56% | VfB Stuttgart 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 1.71 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 0.874 / defence 1.248 | VfB Stuttgart attack 0.955 / defence 1.156. League average goals — home 1.696 / away 1.284. Data: 64 Hertha BSC games / 64 VfB Stuttgart games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 40% | Draw 28% | VfB Stuttgart 32%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | VfB Stuttgart 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Hertha BSC as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form VfB Stuttgart (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hertha BSC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.24 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: Hertha BSC 50% | VfB Stuttgart 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hertha BSC vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Olympiastadion Berlin • Kick-off: Saturday 6 May 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hertha BSC 40% | Draw 28% | VfB Stuttgart 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 67% | xG Hertha BSC 1.71 / VfB Stuttgart 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Hertha BSC attack 0.874 / def 1.248 | VfB Stuttgart attack 0.955 / def 1.156 | league avg home 1.696 / away 1.284 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Hertha BSC xG
Expected Goals
1.53
VfB Stuttgart xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hertha BSC vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
Hertha BSC vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 6 May 2023 at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What was the final score in Hertha BSC vs VfB Stuttgart?
Hertha BSC 2 - 1 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is Hertha BSC vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What competition is Hertha BSC vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
Hertha BSC vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hertha BSC vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives Hertha BSC a 40% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hertha BSC vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Hertha BSC and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will Hertha BSC vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and VfB Stuttgart?
Record (5 meetings): Hertha BSC 1W | Draws 2 | VfB Stuttgart 2W.
What form are Hertha BSC and VfB Stuttgart in?
Hertha BSC (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Hertha BSC's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against VfB Stuttgart's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. The same calculation in reverse, VfB Stuttgart's attack versus Hertha BSC's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
40%
2.51
28%
3.58
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Hertha BSC xG
Total xG
3.24
1.53
VfB Stuttgart xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.00
Clean Sheet
22%
4.63
18%
5.54
Win to Nil
9%
11.62
6%
17.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.2 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.8 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hertha BSC vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Hertha BSC and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Hertha BSC and 1.53 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Hertha BSC vs VfB Stuttgart?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hertha BSC come into this having played 64 games, going 15W 13D 36L for 0.91 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, VfB Stuttgart sit at 0.95 PPG from 64 outings (13W 22D 29L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hertha BSC on 0.91 PPG, VfB Stuttgart on 0.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Hertha BSC's home form reads 10W 8D 14L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.19 PPG return.
Away from home, VfB Stuttgart have taken 0.62 points per game from 32 outings (2W 14D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hertha BSC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hertha BSC are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 1.23 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VfB Stuttgart in 67%.
Last 64 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hertha BSC
Current Season
VfB Stuttgart
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hertha BSC and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
Hertha BSC have gone 15W 13D 36L in their last 64 games (0.91 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 13W 22D 29L in their last 64 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hertha BSC at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
Hertha BSC's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hertha BSC at home: 1.19 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hertha BSC and VfB Stuttgart runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2020. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 May 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Hertha BSC's record when hosting VfB Stuttgart specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Hertha BSC
2
Draws
2
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and VfB Stuttgart?
From 6 meetings on record, Hertha BSC have won 2, VfB Stuttgart have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hertha BSC and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 6 May 2023, when Hertha BSC 2-1 VfB Stuttgart.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hertha BSC 66%, VfB Stuttgart 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Hertha BSC) and 53% (VfB Stuttgart).
On the defensive side: VfB Stuttgart in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hertha BSC home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hertha BSC play VfB Stuttgart?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Hertha BSC's games and 62% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hertha BSC vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Hertha BSC's recent games and 53% of VfB Stuttgart's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hertha BSC and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
Hertha BSC have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hertha BSC edge out VfB Stuttgart 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hertha BSC beat VfB Stuttgart 2-1 at Olympiastadion Berlin, Regular Season - 31, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 1.71 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.53 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 0.87 / defence 1.25 against VfB Stuttgart attack 0.95 / defence 1.16, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 40% | Draw 28% | VfB Stuttgart 32%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 56%, VfB Stuttgart 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hertha BSC's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hertha BSC 0.91 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hertha BSC win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.