Hertha BSC 3-2 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hertha BSC at 37%, yet in-form Borussia Dortmund provide a compelling counter-argument — this Hertha BSC vs Borussia Dortmund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Olympiastadion Berlin plays host to Hertha BSC versus Borussia Dortmund in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Saturday 18 December 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hertha BSC have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Olympiastadion Berlin, Hertha BSC have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Olympiastadion Berlin.
Borussia Dortmund (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Borussia Dortmund have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Borussia Dortmund are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Hertha BSC, 2 for Borussia Dortmund and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2021, ended 0–2 with Borussia Dortmund winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Hertha BSC half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Borussia Dortmund half-time and goal-timing data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 92% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hertha BSC 54% and Borussia Dortmund 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Hertha BSC 58% | Borussia Dortmund 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hertha BSC 1.43 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hertha BSC attack 0.876 / defence 0.839 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.200 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.316. Data: 50 Hertha BSC games / 50 Borussia Dortmund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hertha BSC 37% | Draw 30% | Borussia Dortmund 32%. Fair-value odds: Hertha BSC 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Borussia Dortmund 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hertha BSC are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Borussia Dortmund (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hertha BSC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Hertha BSC 50% | Borussia Dortmund 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hertha BSC vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Olympiastadion Berlin • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Dec 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hertha BSC 37% | Draw 30% | Borussia Dortmund 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG Hertha BSC 1.43 / Borussia Dortmund 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Hertha BSC attack 0.876 / def 0.839 | Borussia Dortmund attack 1.200 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.712 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: Hertha BSC (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Hertha BSC xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Borussia Dortmund xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hertha BSC vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
Hertha BSC vs Borussia Dortmund kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 18 December 2021 at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What was the final score in Hertha BSC vs Borussia Dortmund?
Hertha BSC 3 - 2 Borussia Dortmund.
Where is Hertha BSC vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at Olympiastadion Berlin.
What competition is Hertha BSC vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
Hertha BSC vs Borussia Dortmund is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hertha BSC vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives Hertha BSC a 37% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Hertha BSC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hertha BSC vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Hertha BSC and Borussia Dortmund will score (BTTS).
Will Hertha BSC vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and Borussia Dortmund?
Record (2 meetings): Hertha BSC 0W | Draws 0 | Borussia Dortmund 2W.
What form are Hertha BSC and Borussia Dortmund in?
Hertha BSC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Hertha BSC's attack at 0.88x the league average against Borussia Dortmund's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Borussia Dortmund's attack (1.20x) against Hertha BSC's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hertha BSC Win
37%
2.69
30%
3.30
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Hertha BSC xG
Total xG
2.75
1.32
Borussia Dortmund xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
27%
3.76
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
10%
10.11
8%
12.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.1 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hertha BSC vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Hertha BSC and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Hertha BSC and 1.32 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Hertha BSC vs Borussia Dortmund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 50 outings, Hertha BSC have picked up 1.06 PPG on a 13W 14D 23L record — L-D-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Dortmund's form line: 31W 5D 14L from 50 games, 1.96 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-W. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Borussia Dortmund are the form team by 0.90 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hertha BSC.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Hertha BSC have posted 1.29 PPG from 24 outings (8W 7D 9L).
On the road, Borussia Dortmund have gone 12W 3D 9L from 24 away games — 1.62 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Hertha BSC are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 2.28 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Dortmund in 70%.
Last 50 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hertha BSC
Blended
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hertha BSC and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
Hertha BSC have gone 13W 14D 23L in their last 50 games (1.06 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 31W 5D 14L in their last 50 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hertha BSC at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
Borussia Dortmund's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hertha BSC at home: 1.29 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 1.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 February 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Borussia Dortmund go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Borussia Dortmund won 2-5 on 21 Nov 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hertha BSC have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Borussia Dortmund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Hertha BSC
0
Draws
5
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hertha BSC and Borussia Dortmund?
From 6 meetings on record, Hertha BSC have won 1, Borussia Dortmund have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Hertha BSC and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
They last met on 19 February 2023, when Borussia Dortmund 4-1 Hertha BSC.
Who has won more matches between Hertha BSC and Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hertha BSC 50%, Borussia Dortmund 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Hertha BSC and 71% for Borussia Dortmund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hertha BSC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Hertha BSC have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hertha BSC home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hertha BSC play Borussia Dortmund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Hertha BSC's games and 75% of Borussia Dortmund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hertha BSC vs Borussia Dortmund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Hertha BSC's matches and 71% of Borussia Dortmund's.
Do Hertha BSC and Borussia Dortmund tend to score early?
Hertha BSC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Borussia Dortmund in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hertha BSC edge out Borussia Dortmund 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hertha BSC beat Borussia Dortmund 3-2 at Olympiastadion Berlin, Regular Season - 17, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hertha BSC 1.43 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.32 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Hertha BSC beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hertha BSC attack 0.88 / defence 0.84 against Borussia Dortmund attack 1.20 / defence 0.95, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hertha BSC 37% | Draw 30% | Borussia Dortmund 32%, with Hertha BSC to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hertha BSC 58%, Borussia Dortmund 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hertha BSC's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.06. Form was overturned, with Hertha BSC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.