FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates FSV Mainz 05 at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin meet at Mewa Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 28 November 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FSV Mainz 05 have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FSV Mainz 05 have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, FSV Mainz 05 have posted 2W 3D 5L at Mewa Arena — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.90 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Mewa Arena this season.
Union Berlin's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Union Berlin have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Union Berlin have posted 2W 0D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for FSV Mainz 05, 1.20 for Union Berlin — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Union Berlin hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 6 wins from 10 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 10 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 10 May 2026, ended 1–3 with Union Berlin winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Union Berlin have won 6 of 10 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
FSV Mainz 05 half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Union Berlin half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FSV Mainz 05 60% versus Union Berlin 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FSV Mainz 05 55% | Union Berlin 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FSV Mainz 05 2.17 xG and Union Berlin 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.824 / defence 1.284 | Union Berlin attack 0.768 / defence 1.320. League average goals — home 1.993 / away 1.401. Union Berlin bring a strong defensive rating of 1.320 — this is suppressing FSV Mainz 05's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 FSV Mainz 05 games / 40 Union Berlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 55% | Draw 21% | Union Berlin 24%. Fair-value odds: FSV Mainz 05 1.82 | Draw 4.76 | Union Berlin 4.17. The model has a clear lean to FSV Mainz 05 (55%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.55. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.55 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.17 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FSV Mainz 05 at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.55 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 69% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FSV Mainz 05 70% | Union Berlin 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Mewa Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 55% | Draw 21% | Union Berlin 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 66% | xG FSV Mainz 05 2.17 / Union Berlin 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.824 / def 1.284 | Union Berlin attack 0.768 / def 1.320 | league avg home 1.993 / away 1.401 • Poisson stance: FSV Mainz 05 (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Union Berlin xG
66%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin kick off?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin is scheduled to kick off at 14:30 on Saturday 28 November 2026 at Mewa Arena.
Where is FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at Mewa Arena.
What competition is FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin part of?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives FSV Mainz 05 a 55% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 24% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making FSV Mainz 05 the favourite.
Will both teams score in FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin will score (BTTS).
Will FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin?
Record (10 meetings): FSV Mainz 05 0W | Draws 4 | Union Berlin 6W.
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin in?
FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Union Berlin (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FSV Mainz 05's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Union Berlin's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.17. Flip it around — Union Berlin's attack (0.77x) against FSV Mainz 05's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FSV Mainz 05 Win
55%
1.80
21%
4.87
24%
4.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 0
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Total xG
3.55
1.38
Union Berlin xG
1.80
55%
Home win
4.87
21%
Draw
4.16
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.97
Clean Sheet
25%
3.98
11%
8.74
Win to Nil
14%
7.18
3%
36.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 8.6 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.7 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.38 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 3.55.
How confident is the prediction model for FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FSV Mainz 05 come into this having played 40 games, going 13W 11D 16L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for FSV Mainz 05, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Union Berlin sit at 1.10 PPG from 40 outings (11W 11D 18L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Union Berlin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for FSV Mainz 05 against 1.10 for Union Berlin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
FSV Mainz 05's home form reads 4W 6D 9L across 19 games on their own ground, a 0.95 PPG return.
Away from home, Union Berlin have taken 0.89 points per game from 19 outings (5W 2D 12L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FSV Mainz 05 are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 1.23 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FSV Mainz 05 have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FSV Mainz 05
Early Season
Union Berlin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
FSV Mainz 05 have gone 13W 11D 16L in their last 40 games (1.25 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 11W 11D 18L in their last 40 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FSV Mainz 05 at home or Union Berlin away?
FSV Mainz 05's home record (0.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FSV Mainz 05 at home: 0.95 PPG; Union Berlin away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union Berlin won 4-1 on 20 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FSV Mainz 05 have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Union Berlin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
FSV Mainz 05
4
Draws
6
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin?
From 10 meetings on record, FSV Mainz 05 have won 0, Union Berlin have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when FSV Mainz 05 1-3 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FSV Mainz 05 63%, Union Berlin 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (FSV Mainz 05) and 58% (Union Berlin).
On the defensive side: FSV Mainz 05 have failed to score in 32% of games; Union Berlin in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FSV Mainz 05 home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FSV Mainz 05 play Union Berlin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of FSV Mainz 05's games and 47% of Union Berlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of FSV Mainz 05's recent games and 58% of Union Berlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FSV Mainz 05 and Union Berlin tend to score early?
FSV Mainz 05 have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Union Berlin in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.