FSV Mainz 05 1-0 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Freiburg at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg meet at OPEL ARENA in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 March 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
FSV Mainz 05 (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FSV Mainz 05, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FSV Mainz 05 at OPEL ARENA this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
SC Freiburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Freiburg's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
FSV Mainz 05 — key trading statistics (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
SC Freiburg — key trading statistics (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FSV Mainz 05 54% versus SC Freiburg 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FSV Mainz 05 50% | SC Freiburg 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FSV Mainz 05 0.88 xG and SC Freiburg 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.672 / defence 1.186 | SC Freiburg attack 0.783 / defence 1.111. League average goals — home 1.184 / away 1.392. FSV Mainz 05's attack strength of 0.672 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 24 FSV Mainz 05 games / 24 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 23% | Draw 33% | SC Freiburg 44%. Fair-value odds: FSV Mainz 05 4.35 | Draw 3.03 | SC Freiburg 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SC Freiburg as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SC Freiburg if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: FSV Mainz 05 40% | SC Freiburg 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: OPEL ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Mar 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FSV Mainz 05 23% | Draw 33% | SC Freiburg 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG FSV Mainz 05 0.88 / SC Freiburg 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.672 / def 1.186 | SC Freiburg attack 0.783 / def 1.111 | league avg home 1.184 / away 1.392 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Expected Goals
1.29
SC Freiburg xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg kick off?
FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 13 March 2021 at OPEL ARENA.
What was the final score in FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg?
FSV Mainz 05 1 - 0 SC Freiburg.
Where is FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at OPEL ARENA.
What competition is FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg part of?
FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives FSV Mainz 05 a 23% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 44% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg will score (BTTS).
Will FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg in?
FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. SC Freiburg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FSV Mainz 05's attack rating (0.67) and SC Freiburg's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 0.88 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SC Freiburg's attack (0.78x) against FSV Mainz 05's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
23%
4.26
33%
3.07
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
FSV Mainz 05 xG
Total xG
2.17
1.29
SC Freiburg xG
4.26
23%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
41%
2.42
Win to Nil
6%
15.52
18%
5.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 14.7 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for FSV Mainz 05 and 1.29 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FSV Mainz 05's recent record stands at 4W 6D 14L from 24 games, a 0.75 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for FSV Mainz 05 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Freiburg, meanwhile, have gone 9W 7D 8L across 24 games — 1.42 PPG, with W-D-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours SC Freiburg by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FSV Mainz 05 heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FSV Mainz 05 have managed 2W 2D 7L from 11 games — 0.73 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SC Freiburg's away record stands at 4W 3D 4L across 11 trips, a 1.36 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Freiburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
FSV Mainz 05 are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.54 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SC Freiburg in 62%.
Last 24 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FSV Mainz 05
Blended
SC Freiburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
FSV Mainz 05 have gone 4W 6D 14L in their last 24 games (0.75 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 9W 7D 8L in their last 24 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FSV Mainz 05 at home or SC Freiburg away?
SC Freiburg's away record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FSV Mainz 05 at home: 0.73 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
SC Freiburg have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Freiburg won 4-0 on 30 Nov 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FSV Mainz 05 have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SC Freiburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
FSV Mainz 05
6
Draws
4
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg?
From 10 meetings on record, FSV Mainz 05 have won 0, SC Freiburg have won 4, and 6 have been drawn.
When did FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when FSV Mainz 05 0-1 SC Freiburg.
Who has won more matches between FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FSV Mainz 05 36%, SC Freiburg 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (FSV Mainz 05) and 64% (SC Freiburg).
On the defensive side: FSV Mainz 05 have failed to score in 54% of games; SC Freiburg in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FSV Mainz 05 home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FSV Mainz 05 play SC Freiburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of FSV Mainz 05's recent matches and 54% of SC Freiburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of FSV Mainz 05's recent games and 64% of SC Freiburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg tend to score early?
FSV Mainz 05 have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, SC Freiburg in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FSV Mainz 05 defy the odds to beat SC Freiburg 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FSV Mainz 05 beat SC Freiburg 1-0 at OPEL ARENA, Regular Season - 25, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FSV Mainz 05 0.88 xG and SC Freiburg 1.29 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. SC Freiburg landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.67 / defence 1.19 against SC Freiburg attack 0.78 / defence 1.11, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FSV Mainz 05 23% | Draw 33% | SC Freiburg 44%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a FSV Mainz 05 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FSV Mainz 05 50%, SC Freiburg 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
SC Freiburg's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Freiburg arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.75. Form was overturned, with FSV Mainz 05 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.