FC St. Pauli 1-1 1. FC Köln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC St. Pauli at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Köln fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Köln meet at Millerntor-Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Friday 17 April 2026 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
FC St. Pauli's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
FC St. Pauli's home record at Millerntor-Stadion: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
1. FC Köln (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, 1. FC Köln have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for FC St. Pauli, 0 for 1. FC Köln and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
FC St. Pauli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
1. FC Köln goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC St. Pauli 41% versus 1. FC Köln 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC St. Pauli 41% | 1. FC Köln 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC St. Pauli 1.29 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC St. Pauli attack 0.667 / defence 1.094 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.788 / defence 1.140. League average goals — home 1.699 / away 1.451. FC St. Pauli's attack strength of 0.667 is below the league average — the 1.29 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 63 FC St. Pauli games / 29 1. FC Köln games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 38% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Köln 36%. Fair-value odds: FC St. Pauli 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | 1. FC Köln 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC St. Pauli are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC St. Pauli if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: FC St. Pauli 50% | 1. FC Köln 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Köln | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Millerntor-Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 17 Apr 2026, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC St. Pauli 38% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Köln 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG FC St. Pauli 1.29 / 1. FC Köln 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: FC St. Pauli attack 0.667 / def 1.094 | 1. FC Köln attack 0.788 / def 1.140 | league avg home 1.699 / away 1.451 • Poisson stance: FC St. Pauli (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
FC St. Pauli xG
Expected Goals
1.25
1. FC Köln xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Köln kick off?
FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Köln kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 17 April 2026 at Millerntor-Stadion.
What was the final score in FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Köln?
FC St. Pauli 1 - 1 1. FC Köln.
Where is FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Köln being played?
The match is being played at Millerntor-Stadion.
What competition is FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Köln part of?
FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Köln is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Köln?
Our statistical model gives FC St. Pauli a 38% chance of winning, 1. FC Köln a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC St. Pauli the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Köln?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Köln will score (BTTS).
Will FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Köln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Köln?
Record (1 meetings): FC St. Pauli 0W | Draws 1 | 1. FC Köln 0W.
What form are FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Köln in?
FC St. Pauli (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. 1. FC Köln (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from FC St. Pauli's attack rating (0.67) and 1. FC Köln's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — 1. FC Köln's attack (0.79x) against FC St. Pauli's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 63/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC St. Pauli Win
38%
2.66
27%
3.74
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
FC St. Pauli xG
Total xG
2.54
1.25
1. FC Köln xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
11%
9.28
10%
10.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 9.8 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.7 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Köln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Köln expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for FC St. Pauli and 1.25 for 1. FC Köln, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Köln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC St. Pauli come into this having played 63 games, going 14W 15D 34L for 0.90 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, 1. FC Köln sit at 1.44 PPG from 63 outings (25W 16D 22L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-W across their last five.
1. FC Köln carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.54 PPG clear of FC St. Pauli — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
FC St. Pauli's home form reads 7W 9D 15L across 31 games on their own ground, a 0.97 PPG return.
Away from home, 1. FC Köln have taken 1.32 points per game from 31 outings (11W 8D 12L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC St. Pauli are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Köln are on 1.52 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Köln in 63%.
Last 63 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC St. Pauli
Current Season
1. FC Köln
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Köln in coming into this match?
FC St. Pauli have gone 14W 15D 34L in their last 63 games (0.90 PPG), while 1. FC Köln have gone 25W 16D 22L in their last 63 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC St. Pauli at home or 1. FC Köln away?
1. FC Köln's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC St. Pauli at home: 0.97 PPG; 1. FC Köln away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
FC St. Pauli
2
Draws
0
1. FC Köln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Köln?
From 2 meetings on record, FC St. Pauli have won 0, 1. FC Köln have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Köln last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when FC St. Pauli 1-1 1. FC Köln.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC St. Pauli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC St. Pauli 39%, 1. FC Köln 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (FC St. Pauli) and 48% (1. FC Köln).
On the defensive side: FC St. Pauli have failed to score in 55% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC St. Pauli home games / 1. FC Köln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC St. Pauli play 1. FC Köln?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of FC St. Pauli's recent matches and 55% of 1. FC Köln's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC St. Pauli vs 1. FC Köln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of FC St. Pauli's recent games and 48% of 1. FC Köln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Köln tend to score early?
FC St. Pauli have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, 1. FC Köln in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Köln share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC St. Pauli and 1. FC Köln finished level at 1-1 at Millerntor-Stadion, Regular Season - 30, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC St. Pauli 1.29 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.25 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC St. Pauli attack 0.67 / defence 1.09 against 1. FC Köln attack 0.79 / defence 1.14, drawn from 63/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC St. Pauli 38% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Köln 36%, with FC St. Pauli to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC St. Pauli 41%, 1. FC Köln 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC St. Pauli's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Köln's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, 1. FC Köln arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.