1. FC Heidenheim 1-3 VfL Wolfsburg – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates VfL Wolfsburg at 34% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as 1. FC Heidenheim face VfL Wolfsburg.

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Match Analysis

1. FC Heidenheim host VfL Wolfsburg at Voith-Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 10). Kick-off is Sunday 10 November 2024 at 18:30 UK time.

Form Guide

1. FC Heidenheim — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

1. FC Heidenheim's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, VfL Wolfsburg have recorded 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W L D D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

When travelling, VfL Wolfsburg have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (1. FC Heidenheim) versus 0.90 (VfL Wolfsburg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for 1. FC Heidenheim, 1 for VfL Wolfsburg and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Jan 2024, ended 1. FC Heidenheim 1–1 VfL Wolfsburg — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

1. FC Heidenheim in-play tendencies (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).

VfL Wolfsburg in-play tendencies (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Heidenheim 63% and VfL Wolfsburg 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Heidenheim 51% | VfL Wolfsburg 60%). Note also that VfL Wolfsburg surrender HT leads in 40% of cases while 1. FC Heidenheim recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 1.33 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 0.832 / defence 0.903 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 1.038 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.452. Data: built from 1. FC Heidenheim's last 43 games and VfL Wolfsburg's last 43.

Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 33% | Draw 33% | VfL Wolfsburg 34%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 3.05 | Draw 3.01 | VfL Wolfsburg 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates VfL Wolfsburg as the most likely outcome at 34% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VfL Wolfsburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (1. FC Heidenheim's last 10 home games and VfL Wolfsburg's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: 1. FC Heidenheim 60% (last 10 home games) | VfL Wolfsburg 40% (last 10 away games).

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