1. FC Heidenheim 1-0 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Heidenheim at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Heidenheim vs Union Berlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
1. FC Heidenheim and Union Berlin meet at Voith-Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 30 September 2023 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
1. FC Heidenheim's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. 1. FC Heidenheim have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
1. FC Heidenheim's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Voith-Arena this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Voith-Arena. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — 1. FC Heidenheim are significantly better at Voith-Arena than their overall form suggests.
Union Berlin (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Union Berlin have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Union Berlin's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
1. FC Heidenheim half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Union Berlin half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Heidenheim 51% versus Union Berlin 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Heidenheim 59% | Union Berlin 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 2.12 xG and Union Berlin 2.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.158 / defence 1.308 | Union Berlin attack 1.095 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.979 / away 1.461. Data: 5 1. FC Heidenheim games / 39 Union Berlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 40% | Draw 21% | Union Berlin 39%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 2.50 | Draw 4.76 | Union Berlin 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 21% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 79% | BTTS probability 78% | Total xG 4.22. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 79% — a total xG of 4.22 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 78% reflects that both xG figures (2.12 / 2.09) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Heidenheim at 40% — marginal model lean. The opposing side holds a 39% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 4.22 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 79% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 78% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: 1. FC Heidenheim 40% | Union Berlin 60%.
The outsider holds a 39% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Sep 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 40% | Draw 21% | Union Berlin 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 79% | BTTS 78% | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 2.12 / Union Berlin 2.09 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.158 / def 1.308 | Union Berlin attack 1.095 / def 0.927 | league avg home 1.979 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Heidenheim (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
2.09
Union Berlin xG
78%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
79%
Over 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs Union Berlin kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs Union Berlin kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 30 September 2023 at Voith-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs Union Berlin?
1. FC Heidenheim 1 - 0 Union Berlin.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Union Berlin part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs Union Berlin is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 40% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 39% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Heidenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 78% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and Union Berlin will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 79%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and Union Berlin?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and Union Berlin in?
1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Union Berlin (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
1. FC Heidenheim's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Union Berlin's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.12. Flip it around — Union Berlin's attack (1.09x) against 1. FC Heidenheim's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 2.09.
These ratings are built from 5/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 7.4%. Close behind: 2-2 (7.3%), 2-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Heidenheim Win
40%
2.50
21%
4.70
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 2
7.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
7.0%
Home win
1 – 2
6.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
4.22
2.09
Union Berlin xG
2.50
40%
Home win
4.70
21%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
79%
Over 2.5
1.27
21%
Under 2.5
4.76
61%
Over 3.5
1.64
39%
Under 3.5
2.56
41%
Over 4.5
2.44
59%
Under 4.5
1.69
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
78%
BTTS Yes
1.29
22%
BTTS No
4.50
Clean Sheet
12%
8.10
12%
8.36
Win to Nil
5%
20.27
5%
21.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.5 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 3.1 | 6.6 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 7.0 | 7.3 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.8 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.4%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 2.09 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 4.22.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs Union Berlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
1. FC Heidenheim's recent record stands at 20W 11D 8L from 39 games, a 1.82 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Union Berlin, meanwhile, have gone 20W 8D 11L across 39 games — 1.74 PPG, with W-W-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Union Berlin, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.82 PPG for 1. FC Heidenheim against 1.74 for Union Berlin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, 1. FC Heidenheim have managed 13W 4D 2L from 19 games — 2.26 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.82 PPG overall — 1. FC Heidenheim are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Union Berlin's away record stands at 8W 2D 9L across 19 trips, a 1.37 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Heidenheim come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 1.95 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 1.54 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: 1. FC Heidenheim have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Early Season
Union Berlin
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 20W 11D 8L in their last 39 games (1.82 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 20W 8D 11L in their last 39 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Heidenheim at home or Union Berlin away?
1. FC Heidenheim's home record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Heidenheim at home: 2.26 PPG; Union Berlin away: 1.37 PPG.
Have 1. FC Heidenheim or Union Berlin been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Heidenheim have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Union Berlin in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
1. FC Heidenheim have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Heidenheim won 0-3 on 10 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Union Berlin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
1. FC Heidenheim
1
Draws
0
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and Union Berlin?
From 6 meetings on record, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 5, Union Berlin have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and Union Berlin last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when 1. FC Heidenheim 3-1 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and Union Berlin?
1. FC Heidenheim have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Heidenheim 53%, Union Berlin 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for 1. FC Heidenheim and 58% for Union Berlin. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Heidenheim keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Union Berlin in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Heidenheim play Union Berlin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of 1. FC Heidenheim's recent matches and 53% of Union Berlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Heidenheim vs Union Berlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of 1. FC Heidenheim's matches and 58% of Union Berlin's.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and Union Berlin tend to score early?
1. FC Heidenheim have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Union Berlin in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as 1. FC Heidenheim edge out Union Berlin 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Heidenheim beat Union Berlin 1-0 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 2.12 xG and Union Berlin 2.09 xG, a combined 4.22. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. 1. FC Heidenheim fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Union Berlin landed 2.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.16 / defence 1.31 against Union Berlin attack 1.09 / defence 0.93, drawn from 5/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 40% | Draw 21% | Union Berlin 39%, with 1. FC Heidenheim to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 93% and missed. Over 3.5 was 61% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 78% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 59%, Union Berlin 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Union Berlin's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Heidenheim 1.82 PPG, Union Berlin 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Heidenheim win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.47 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Union Berlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.