1. FC Heidenheim 4-0 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates 1. FC Heidenheim at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC Augsburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Augsburg make the trip to Voith-Arena to face 1. FC Heidenheim in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Sunday 1 September 2024 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
1. FC Heidenheim (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. 1. FC Heidenheim have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, 1. FC Heidenheim have posted 3W 4D 3L at Voith-Arena — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
FC Augsburg have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC Augsburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Augsburg's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward 1. FC Heidenheim. A 0.90 PPG lead over FC Augsburg (1.70 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — 1. FC Heidenheim register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant games, FC Augsburg in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — 1. FC Heidenheim lead 0W to 2W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Mar 2024, ended 0–1 with FC Augsburg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
1. FC Heidenheim goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
FC Augsburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Heidenheim 71% and FC Augsburg 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Heidenheim 51% | FC Augsburg 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Heidenheim 1.82 xG and FC Augsburg 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.037 / defence 0.974 | FC Augsburg attack 1.001 / defence 1.092. League average goals — home 1.608 / away 1.478. Data: 35 1. FC Heidenheim games / 35 FC Augsburg games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 45% | Draw 26% | FC Augsburg 29%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Heidenheim 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | FC Augsburg 3.45. 1. FC Heidenheim hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.26. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.26 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.82 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates 1. FC Heidenheim as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Heidenheim if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.26 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: 1. FC Heidenheim 90% | FC Augsburg 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Voith-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Sep 2024, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Heidenheim 45% | Draw 26% | FC Augsburg 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 66% | xG 1. FC Heidenheim 1.82 / FC Augsburg 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.037 / def 0.974 | FC Augsburg attack 1.001 / def 1.092 | league avg home 1.608 / away 1.478 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Heidenheim (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Expected Goals
1.44
FC Augsburg xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC Augsburg kick off?
1. FC Heidenheim vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 1 September 2024 at Voith-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC Augsburg?
1. FC Heidenheim 4 - 0 FC Augsburg.
Where is 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at Voith-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC Augsburg part of?
1. FC Heidenheim vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Heidenheim a 45% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Heidenheim the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both 1. FC Heidenheim and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and FC Augsburg?
Record (2 meetings): 1. FC Heidenheim 0W | Draws 0 | FC Augsburg 2W.
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and FC Augsburg in?
1. FC Heidenheim (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. FC Augsburg (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
1. FC Heidenheim's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against FC Augsburg's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.82. Flip it around — FC Augsburg's attack (1.00x) against 1. FC Heidenheim's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Heidenheim Win
45%
2.22
26%
3.85
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
1. FC Heidenheim xG
Total xG
3.26
1.44
FC Augsburg xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.91
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
16%
6.18
Win to Nil
11%
9.38
5%
21.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.1 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are 1. FC Heidenheim and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for 1. FC Heidenheim and 1.44 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 3.26.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
1. FC Heidenheim come into this having played 35 games, going 11W 12D 12L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Heidenheim, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FC Augsburg sit at 1.14 PPG from 35 outings (10W 10D 15L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Augsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for 1. FC Heidenheim against 1.14 for FC Augsburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
1. FC Heidenheim's home form reads 7W 5D 5L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Augsburg have taken 0.88 points per game from 17 outings (4W 3D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Heidenheim come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
1. FC Heidenheim are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.49 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Heidenheim have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; FC Augsburg in 69%.
Last 35 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Heidenheim
Early Season
FC Augsburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Heidenheim and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
1. FC Heidenheim have gone 11W 12D 12L in their last 35 games (1.29 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 10W 10D 15L in their last 35 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Heidenheim at home or FC Augsburg away?
1. FC Heidenheim's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Heidenheim at home: 1.53 PPG; FC Augsburg away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 15 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Heidenheim won 4-0 on 1 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Heidenheim have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
1. FC Heidenheim
0
Draws
4
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Heidenheim and FC Augsburg?
From 6 meetings on record, 1. FC Heidenheim have won 2, FC Augsburg have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Heidenheim and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2026, when FC Augsburg 1-0 1. FC Heidenheim.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Heidenheim and FC Augsburg?
FC Augsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
1. FC Heidenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 76% for 1. FC Heidenheim, 65% for FC Augsburg — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for 1. FC Heidenheim and 65% for FC Augsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Heidenheim home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Heidenheim play FC Augsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of 1. FC Heidenheim's games and 65% of FC Augsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is 1. FC Heidenheim vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of 1. FC Heidenheim's matches and 65% of FC Augsburg's.
Do 1. FC Heidenheim and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
1. FC Heidenheim have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant 1. FC Heidenheim run riot with a 4-0 hammering of FC Augsburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Heidenheim beat FC Augsburg 4-0 at Voith-Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Heidenheim 1.82 xG and FC Augsburg 1.44 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. 1. FC Heidenheim beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Augsburg landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Heidenheim attack 1.04 / defence 0.97 against FC Augsburg attack 1.00 / defence 1.09, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Heidenheim 45% | Draw 26% | FC Augsburg 29%, with 1. FC Heidenheim to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Heidenheim 51%, FC Augsburg 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Heidenheim's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Heidenheim 1.29 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Heidenheim win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Heidenheim (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.76 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.