FC Augsburg 2-1 Werder Bremen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Werder Bremen make the trip to WWK Arena to face FC Augsburg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Saturday 4 March 2023 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Augsburg have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at WWK Arena this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Werder Bremen (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Werder Bremen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Werder Bremen's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for FC Augsburg, 1.20 for Werder Bremen — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: FC Augsburg 2W, Werder Bremen 1W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Sep 2022, ended 1–0 with FC Augsburg winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
FC Augsburg — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Werder Bremen — key trading statistics (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 95% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 79% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Augsburg 55% versus Werder Bremen 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 54% | Werder Bremen 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.62 xG and Werder Bremen 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.691 / defence 0.797 | Werder Bremen attack 0.898 / defence 1.258. League average goals — home 1.867 / away 1.254. FC Augsburg's attack strength of 0.691 is below the league average — the 1.62 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Werder Bremen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.258 — this is suppressing FC Augsburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. FC Augsburg's defence rating of 0.797 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 56 FC Augsburg games / 22 Werder Bremen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 52% | Draw 29% | Werder Bremen 18%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 1.92 | Draw 3.45 | Werder Bremen 5.56. FC Augsburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Augsburg as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: FC Augsburg 40% | Werder Bremen 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Mar 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 52% | Draw 29% | Werder Bremen 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG FC Augsburg 1.62 / Werder Bremen 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.691 / def 0.797 | Werder Bremen attack 0.898 / def 1.258 | league avg home 1.867 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Werder Bremen xG
50%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen kick off?
FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 4 March 2023 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen?
FC Augsburg 2 - 1 Werder Bremen.
Where is FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen part of?
FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 52% chance of winning, Werder Bremen a 18% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both FC Augsburg and Werder Bremen will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Werder Bremen?
Record (3 meetings): FC Augsburg 2W | Draws 0 | Werder Bremen 1W.
What form are FC Augsburg and Werder Bremen in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Werder Bremen (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FC Augsburg's attack rating (0.69) and Werder Bremen's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Werder Bremen's attack (0.90x) against FC Augsburg's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 56/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 2-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
52%
1.92
29%
3.39
18%
5.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
2.52
0.90
Werder Bremen xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
5.43
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
20%
5.07
Win to Nil
21%
4.71
4%
27.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 11.7 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and Werder Bremen expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 0.90 for Werder Bremen, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Augsburg's recent record stands at 17W 11D 28L from 56 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Werder Bremen, meanwhile, have gone 27W 12D 17L across 56 games — 1.66 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Werder Bremen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Werder Bremen by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Augsburg heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FC Augsburg have managed 11W 6D 10L from 27 games — 1.44 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Werder Bremen's away record stands at 14W 5D 8L across 27 trips, a 1.74 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Werder Bremen are on 1.77 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Werder Bremen in 62%.
Last 56 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Blended
Werder Bremen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and Werder Bremen in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 17W 11D 28L in their last 56 games (1.11 PPG), while Werder Bremen have gone 27W 12D 17L in their last 56 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or Werder Bremen away?
Werder Bremen's away record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.44 PPG; Werder Bremen away: 1.74 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Werder Bremen won 0-3 on 27 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Augsburg have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Werder Bremen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
FC Augsburg
2
Draws
3
Werder Bremen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Werder Bremen?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 5, Werder Bremen have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and Werder Bremen last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Werder Bremen 1-3 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and Werder Bremen?
FC Augsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Werder Bremen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 59%, Werder Bremen 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 48% for FC Augsburg and 74% for Werder Bremen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / Werder Bremen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play Werder Bremen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of FC Augsburg's games and 67% of Werder Bremen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs Werder Bremen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of FC Augsburg's matches and 74% of Werder Bremen's.
Do FC Augsburg and Werder Bremen tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Werder Bremen in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Augsburg edge out Werder Bremen 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Augsburg beat Werder Bremen 2-1 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.62 xG and Werder Bremen 0.90 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.69 / defence 0.80 against Werder Bremen attack 0.90 / defence 1.26, drawn from 56/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 52% | Draw 29% | Werder Bremen 18%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 54%, Werder Bremen 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Werder Bremen's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Werder Bremen arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.11. Form was overturned, with FC Augsburg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Werder Bremen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.