FC Augsburg 2-1 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 53%, yet the head-to-head data favours SC Freiburg — this FC Augsburg vs SC Freiburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

FC Augsburg and SC Freiburg meet at WWK Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 23). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 25 February 2024 at 18:30 UK time.

Form

FC Augsburg (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

FC Augsburg's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

SC Freiburg have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

On the road, SC Freiburg have gone 2W 1D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for FC Augsburg against 1.40 for SC Freiburg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

Across the 4 H2H matches in our data, SC Freiburg have the stronger record — 4 wins to FC Augsburg's 0, with 0 draws.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.2 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 1 Oct 2023, ended FC Augsburg 0–2 SC Freiburg — a SC Freiburg win.

The H2H data backs the away side. SC Freiburg have won 4 of 4 H2H matches, and at 3.2 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.

Trading

FC Augsburg half-time and goal-timing data (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

SC Freiburg half-time and goal-timing data (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Augsburg 66% versus SC Freiburg 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 57% | SC Freiburg 55%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: FC Augsburg surrender their half-time lead 56% of the time, while SC Freiburg have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that SC Freiburg surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while FC Augsburg recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 30% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.89 xG and SC Freiburg 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.964 / defence 1.126 | SC Freiburg attack 0.818 / defence 1.175. League average goals — home 1.663 / away 1.259. Data: built from FC Augsburg's last 56 games and SC Freiburg's last 56.

Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 53% | Draw 26% | SC Freiburg 22%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 1.90 | Draw 3.90 | SC Freiburg 4.62. FC Augsburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.89 / 1.16) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Augsburg at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 3.04 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (FC Augsburg's last 10 home games and SC Freiburg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Augsburg 90% (last 10 home games) | SC Freiburg 40% (last 10 away games).

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