FC Augsburg 0-0 RB Leipzig – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Augsburg host RB Leipzig at WWK Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 14 February 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
FC Augsburg — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg at WWK Arena this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, RB Leipzig stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for RB Leipzig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
RB Leipzig away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC Augsburg at 1.50 PPG versus RB Leipzig's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, RB Leipzig have the better historical record — 4 wins from 7 previous contests against 0 for FC Augsburg.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2024, ended 0–4 with RB Leipzig winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. RB Leipzig have won 4 of 7 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
FC Augsburg trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
RB Leipzig trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Augsburg 62% and RB Leipzig 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 60% | RB Leipzig 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.42 xG and RB Leipzig 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.792 / defence 0.906 | RB Leipzig attack 1.030 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.698 / away 1.380. FC Augsburg's attack strength of 0.792 is below the league average — the 1.42 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 55 FC Augsburg games / 55 RB Leipzig games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 39% | Draw 28% | RB Leipzig 33%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | RB Leipzig 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Augsburg as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 60% | RB Leipzig 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Friday 14 Feb 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 39% | Draw 28% | RB Leipzig 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG FC Augsburg 1.42 / RB Leipzig 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.792 / def 0.906 | RB Leipzig attack 1.030 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.698 / away 1.380 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.29
RB Leipzig xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig kick off?
FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 14 February 2025 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig?
FC Augsburg 0 - 0 RB Leipzig.
Where is FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig part of?
FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 39% chance of winning, RB Leipzig a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both FC Augsburg and RB Leipzig will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and RB Leipzig?
Record (7 meetings): FC Augsburg 0W | Draws 3 | RB Leipzig 4W.
What form are FC Augsburg and RB Leipzig in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. RB Leipzig (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC Augsburg's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against RB Leipzig's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. The same calculation in reverse, RB Leipzig's attack versus FC Augsburg's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
39%
2.55
28%
3.61
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
2.71
1.29
RB Leipzig xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
24%
4.13
Win to Nil
11%
9.24
8%
12.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.2 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.7 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and RB Leipzig expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.29 for RB Leipzig, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 55 outings, FC Augsburg have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 17W 15D 23L record — W-W-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RB Leipzig's form line: 29W 14D 12L from 55 games, 1.84 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-W. The sample for RB Leipzig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, RB Leipzig are the form team by 0.64 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Augsburg.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC Augsburg have posted 1.52 PPG from 27 outings (11W 8D 8L).
On the road, RB Leipzig have gone 12W 7D 8L from 27 away games — 1.59 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; RB Leipzig are on 2.05 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Augsburg have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; RB Leipzig in 60%.
Defensively: RB Leipzig in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Blended
RB Leipzig
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and RB Leipzig in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 17W 15D 23L in their last 55 games (1.20 PPG), while RB Leipzig have gone 29W 14D 12L in their last 55 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or RB Leipzig away?
RB Leipzig's away record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.52 PPG; RB Leipzig away: 1.59 PPG.
Have FC Augsburg or RB Leipzig been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Augsburg have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, RB Leipzig in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
RB Leipzig go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Oct 2025, when RB Leipzig won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Augsburg's record when hosting RB Leipzig specifically: 0W 4D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
FC Augsburg
4
Draws
6
RB Leipzig
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and RB Leipzig?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 0, RB Leipzig have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and RB Leipzig last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when RB Leipzig 2-1 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and RB Leipzig?
RB Leipzig have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
RB Leipzig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Augsburg at 67%, RB Leipzig at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for FC Augsburg and 67% for RB Leipzig. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / RB Leipzig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play RB Leipzig?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of FC Augsburg's games and 70% of RB Leipzig's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs RB Leipzig usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of FC Augsburg's matches and 67% of RB Leipzig's.
Do FC Augsburg and RB Leipzig tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, RB Leipzig in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at FC Augsburg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 22, as FC Augsburg and RB Leipzig drew 0-0 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.42 xG and RB Leipzig 1.29 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. FC Augsburg fell 1.4 short of their projected output. RB Leipzig landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.79 / defence 0.91 against RB Leipzig attack 1.03 / defence 1.05, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 39% | Draw 28% | RB Leipzig 33%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 60%, RB Leipzig 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
RB Leipzig's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, RB Leipzig arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line. RB Leipzig (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.