FC Augsburg 1-0 Hamburger SV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Augsburg vs Hamburger SV fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Hamburger SV travel to WWK Arena to take on FC Augsburg. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 November 2025, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Augsburg stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg's home record at WWK Arena: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Hamburger SV — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hamburger SV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Hamburger SV have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Augsburg 0.70 PPG, Hamburger SV 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
FC Augsburg in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Hamburger SV in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Augsburg 54% versus Hamburger SV 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 59% | Hamburger SV 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.62 xG and Hamburger SV 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.817 / defence 1.436 | Hamburger SV attack 0.627 / defence 1.206. League average goals — home 1.645 / away 1.446. Hamburger SV bring a strong defensive rating of 1.206 — this is suppressing FC Augsburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 FC Augsburg games / 10 Hamburger SV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 45% | Draw 25% | Hamburger SV 30%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 2.22 | Draw 4.00 | Hamburger SV 3.33. FC Augsburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Augsburg are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates are neutral: FC Augsburg 60% | Hamburger SV 40%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs Hamburger SV | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Nov 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 45% | Draw 25% | Hamburger SV 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG FC Augsburg 1.62 / Hamburger SV 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.817 / def 1.436 | Hamburger SV attack 0.627 / def 1.206 | league avg home 1.645 / away 1.446 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Hamburger SV xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs Hamburger SV kick off?
FC Augsburg vs Hamburger SV kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 22 November 2025 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs Hamburger SV?
FC Augsburg 1 - 0 Hamburger SV.
Where is FC Augsburg vs Hamburger SV being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs Hamburger SV part of?
FC Augsburg vs Hamburger SV is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs Hamburger SV?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 45% chance of winning, Hamburger SV a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs Hamburger SV?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both FC Augsburg and Hamburger SV will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs Hamburger SV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Hamburger SV?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Augsburg and Hamburger SV in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Hamburger SV (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC Augsburg's attack rating (0.82) and Hamburger SV's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hamburger SV's attack versus FC Augsburg's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
45%
2.24
25%
4.00
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
2.92
1.30
Hamburger SV xG
2.24
45%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
20%
5.06
Win to Nil
12%
8.25
6%
16.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 7.0 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.3 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs Hamburger SV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and Hamburger SV expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.30 for Hamburger SV, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs Hamburger SV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Augsburg come into this having played 44 games, going 13W 11D 20L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-L. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hamburger SV sit at 1.55 PPG from 44 outings (18W 14D 12L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Hamburger SV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hamburger SV carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC Augsburg's home form reads 7W 5D 10L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Hamburger SV have taken 1.36 points per game from 22 outings (8W 6D 8L).
The Goals Picture
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Hamburger SV are on 1.98 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hamburger SV in 61%.
Last 44 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Blended
Hamburger SV
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and Hamburger SV in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 13W 11D 20L in their last 44 games (1.14 PPG), while Hamburger SV have gone 18W 14D 12L in their last 44 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or Hamburger SV away?
Hamburger SV's away record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.18 PPG; Hamburger SV away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Augsburg and Hamburger SV runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
FC Augsburg
1
Draws
0
Hamburger SV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Hamburger SV?
From 2 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 1, Hamburger SV have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and Hamburger SV last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Hamburger SV 1-1 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and Hamburger SV?
FC Augsburg have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 54%, Hamburger SV 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for FC Augsburg and 73% for Hamburger SV. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / Hamburger SV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play Hamburger SV?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of FC Augsburg's games and 59% of Hamburger SV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs Hamburger SV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of FC Augsburg's matches and 73% of Hamburger SV's.
Do FC Augsburg and Hamburger SV tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Hamburger SV in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Augsburg edge out Hamburger SV 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Augsburg beat Hamburger SV 1-0 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.62 xG and Hamburger SV 1.30 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hamburger SV landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.82 / defence 1.44 against Hamburger SV attack 0.63 / defence 1.21, drawn from 44/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 45% | Draw 25% | Hamburger SV 30%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 59%, Hamburger SV 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Hamburger SV's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Hamburger SV arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 1.14. Form was overturned, with FC Augsburg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.59 average — tighter than their form line. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.