FC Augsburg 1-2 Eintracht Frankfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Eintracht Frankfurt at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Eintracht Frankfurt travel to WWK Arena to take on FC Augsburg. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 November 2022, 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, FC Augsburg have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W D L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at WWK Arena, FC Augsburg have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Eintracht Frankfurt — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eintracht Frankfurt's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Eintracht Frankfurt are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC Augsburg register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, FC Augsburg have won 0, Eintracht Frankfurt 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 16 Jan 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
FC Augsburg in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Eintracht Frankfurt in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Augsburg 56% and Eintracht Frankfurt 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 54% | Eintracht Frankfurt 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.52 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.839 / defence 1.179 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.240 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.800 / away 1.331. Eintracht Frankfurt have an above-average attack strength of 1.240 — the away xG of 1.95 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 46 FC Augsburg games / 46 Eintracht Frankfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 30% | Draw 23% | Eintracht Frankfurt 47%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 3.33 | Draw 4.35 | Eintracht Frankfurt 2.13. Eintracht Frankfurt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 1.95) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Eintracht Frankfurt are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Eintracht Frankfurt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.47 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 60% | Eintracht Frankfurt 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 30% | Draw 23% | Eintracht Frankfurt 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 67% | xG FC Augsburg 1.52 / Eintracht Frankfurt 1.95 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.839 / def 1.179 | Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.240 / def 1.010 | league avg home 1.800 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.95
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt kick off?
FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
FC Augsburg 1 - 2 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Where is FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt part of?
FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 30% chance of winning, Eintracht Frankfurt a 47% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both FC Augsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Record (2 meetings): FC Augsburg 0W | Draws 2 | Eintracht Frankfurt 0W.
What form are FC Augsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-D-L. Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC Augsburg's attack rating (0.84) and Eintracht Frankfurt's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Eintracht Frankfurt's attack versus FC Augsburg's defence, projects 1.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
30%
3.33
23%
4.42
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
3.47
1.95
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
3.33
30%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
46%
Over 3.5
2.17
54%
Under 3.5
1.85
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.48
33%
BTTS No
3.07
Clean Sheet
14%
7.01
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
4%
23.32
10%
9.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.95 for Eintracht Frankfurt, a combined total of 3.47.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Augsburg's recent record stands at 14W 10D 22L from 46 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with W-D-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Eintracht Frankfurt, meanwhile, have gone 16W 14D 16L across 46 games — 1.35 PPG, with W-L-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Augsburg on 1.13 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC Augsburg have managed 8W 6D 8L from 22 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Eintracht Frankfurt's away record stands at 9W 6D 7L across 22 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Frankfurt are on 1.52 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt in 65%.
Last 46 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Blended
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 14W 10D 22L in their last 46 games (1.13 PPG), while Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 16W 14D 16L in their last 46 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or Eintracht Frankfurt away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.36 PPG; Eintracht Frankfurt away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
FC Augsburg's record when hosting Eintracht Frankfurt specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
FC Augsburg
6
Draws
3
Eintracht Frankfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 1, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 3, and 6 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when FC Augsburg 1-1 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Augsburg at 68%, Eintracht Frankfurt at 68%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (FC Augsburg) and 54% (Eintracht Frankfurt).
On the defensive side: Eintracht Frankfurt in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / Eintracht Frankfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play Eintracht Frankfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of FC Augsburg's games and 68% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs Eintracht Frankfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of FC Augsburg's recent games and 54% of Eintracht Frankfurt's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Augsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Eintracht Frankfurt in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Eintracht Frankfurt edge out FC Augsburg 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Frankfurt beat FC Augsburg 1-2 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.52 xG and Eintracht Frankfurt 1.95 xG, a combined 3.47. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.84 / defence 1.18 against Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.24 / defence 1.01, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 30% | Draw 23% | Eintracht Frankfurt 47%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 54%, Eintracht Frankfurt 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Augsburg 1.13 PPG, Eintracht Frankfurt 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eintracht Frankfurt win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.