FC Augsburg 0-1 Bayern München – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bayern München at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Augsburg vs Bayern München encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Augsburg host Bayern München at WWK Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 20 January 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, FC Augsburg have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 4L across 8 games at WWK Arena this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game.
Bayern München — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Bayern München, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bayern München's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 2L across 8 road games this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.25 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Bayern München's 2.10 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of FC Augsburg's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Trading Patterns
FC Augsburg in-play and half-time data (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Bayern München in-play and half-time data (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 62%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Augsburg 50% and Bayern München 88% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Augsburg 44% | Bayern München 88%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.20 xG and Bayern München 2.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.777 / defence 1.402 | Bayern München attack 1.147 / defence 1.303. League average goals — home 1.184 / away 1.483. FC Augsburg's attack strength of 0.777 is below the league average — the 1.20 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bayern München bring a strong defensive rating of 1.303 — this is suppressing FC Augsburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 FC Augsburg games / 16 Bayern München games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 16% | Draw 22% | Bayern München 62%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 6.25 | Draw 4.55 | Bayern München 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Bayern München (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.58. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.58 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.20 / 2.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bayern München as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.58 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 50% | Bayern München 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs Bayern München | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Wednesday 20 Jan 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 16% | Draw 22% | Bayern München 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 65% | xG FC Augsburg 1.20 / Bayern München 2.38 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.777 / def 1.402 | Bayern München attack 1.147 / def 1.303 | league avg home 1.184 / away 1.483 • Poisson stance: Bayern München (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
2.38
Bayern München xG
65%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs Bayern München kick off?
FC Augsburg vs Bayern München kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 20 January 2021 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs Bayern München?
FC Augsburg 0 - 1 Bayern München.
Where is FC Augsburg vs Bayern München being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs Bayern München part of?
FC Augsburg vs Bayern München is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs Bayern München?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 16% chance of winning, Bayern München a 62% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Bayern München the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs Bayern München?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both FC Augsburg and Bayern München will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs Bayern München have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Bayern München?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Augsburg and Bayern München in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Bayern München (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC Augsburg's attack at 0.78x the league average against Bayern München's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bayern München's attack versus FC Augsburg's defence, projects 2.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 9.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.0%), 0-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayern München Win
16%
6.15
22%
4.62
62%
1.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
7.9%
Away win
1 – 1
7.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
3.58
2.38
Bayern München xG
6.15
16%
Home win
4.62
22%
Draw
1.61
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.85
Clean Sheet
9%
10.86
30%
3.32
Win to Nil
1%
66.83
19%
5.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 6.6 | 7.9 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.8 |
| 1 | 3.3 | 7.9 | 9.5 | 7.5 | 4.5 | 2.1 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs Bayern München?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and Bayern München expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 2.38 for Bayern München, a combined total of 3.58.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs Bayern München?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 16 outings, FC Augsburg have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 5W 4D 7L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bayern München's form line: 11W 3D 2L from 16 games, 2.25 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W. The sample for Bayern München is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bayern München are the form team by 1.06 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Augsburg.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC Augsburg have posted 1.00 PPG from 8 outings (2W 2D 4L).
On the road, Bayern München have gone 5W 1D 2L from 8 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayern München come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Bayern München are on 3.00 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bayern München in 88%.
Last 16 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Blended
Bayern München
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and Bayern München in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 5W 4D 7L in their last 16 games (1.19 PPG), while Bayern München have gone 11W 3D 2L in their last 16 (2.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or Bayern München away?
Bayern München's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.00 PPG; Bayern München away: 2.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Nov 2024, when Bayern München won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Augsburg's record when hosting Bayern München specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC Augsburg
0
Draws
7
Bayern München
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Bayern München?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 3, Bayern München have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and Bayern München last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Bayern München 1-2 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and Bayern München?
Bayern München have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Bayern München are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Augsburg at 50%, Bayern München at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for FC Augsburg and 88% for Bayern München. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 62% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / Bayern München away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play Bayern München?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of FC Augsburg's games and 100% of Bayern München's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs Bayern München usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of FC Augsburg's matches and 88% of Bayern München's.
Do FC Augsburg and Bayern München tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Bayern München in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bayern München edge out FC Augsburg 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayern München beat FC Augsburg 0-1 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.20 xG and Bayern München 2.38 xG, a combined 3.58. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC Augsburg fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Bayern München landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.78 / defence 1.40 against Bayern München attack 1.15 / defence 1.30, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 16% | Draw 22% | Bayern München 62%, with Bayern München to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 44%, Bayern München 88%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 69%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bayern München's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 88% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayern München arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.19. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line. Bayern München (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.