FC Augsburg 1-3 Bayern München – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bayern München at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Augsburg vs Bayern München encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Augsburg host Bayern München at WWK Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 4 April 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, FC Augsburg have gone 5W 5D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W D W W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at WWK Arena this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at WWK Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Bayern München — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bayern München, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bayern München's form when playing away from home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (FC Augsburg) versus 2.30 (Bayern München). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Bayern München have the better historical record — 5 wins from 7 previous contests against 2 for FC Augsburg.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2024, ended 0–3 with Bayern München winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bayern München have won 5 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.6 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
FC Augsburg in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Bayern München in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 57%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Augsburg 57% versus Bayern München 57%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Augsburg 56% | Bayern München 79%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 0.82 xG and Bayern München 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.723 / defence 0.692 | Bayern München attack 1.202 / defence 0.740. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.404. FC Augsburg's attack strength of 0.723 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bayern München's defence strength of 0.740 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Bayern München have an above-average attack strength of 1.202 — the away xG of 1.17 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. FC Augsburg's defence rating of 0.692 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 61 FC Augsburg games / 61 Bayern München games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 25% | Draw 31% | Bayern München 44%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 4.00 | Draw 3.23 | Bayern München 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bayern München as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bayern München offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.98 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 30% | Bayern München 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs Bayern München | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Friday 4 Apr 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 25% | Draw 31% | Bayern München 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG FC Augsburg 0.82 / Bayern München 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.723 / def 0.692 | Bayern München attack 1.202 / def 0.740 | league avg home 1.525 / away 1.404 • Poisson stance: Bayern München (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Bayern München xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs Bayern München kick off?
FC Augsburg vs Bayern München kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 4 April 2025 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs Bayern München?
FC Augsburg 1 - 3 Bayern München.
Where is FC Augsburg vs Bayern München being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs Bayern München part of?
FC Augsburg vs Bayern München is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs Bayern München?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 25% chance of winning, Bayern München a 44% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Bayern München the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs Bayern München?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both FC Augsburg and Bayern München will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs Bayern München have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Bayern München?
Record (7 meetings): FC Augsburg 2W | Draws 0 | Bayern München 5W.
What form are FC Augsburg and Bayern München in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Bayern München (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC Augsburg's attack at 0.72x the league average against Bayern München's defence at 0.74x — combine the two and it projects 0.82 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bayern München's attack versus FC Augsburg's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 0-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayern München Win
25%
3.92
31%
3.27
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
1.98
1.17
Bayern München xG
3.92
25%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
44%
2.26
Win to Nil
8%
12.61
19%
5.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 16.1 | 9.4 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.1 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs Bayern München?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and Bayern München expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.17 for Bayern München, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs Bayern München?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 61 outings, FC Augsburg have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 20W 18D 23L record — W-D-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bayern München's form line: 43W 8D 10L from 61 games, 2.25 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-W. The sample for Bayern München is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bayern München are the form team by 0.97 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Augsburg.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC Augsburg have posted 1.53 PPG from 30 outings (12W 10D 8L).
On the road, Bayern München have gone 17W 6D 7L from 30 away games — 1.90 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Bayern München are on 2.82 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: Bayern München in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Blended
Bayern München
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and Bayern München in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 20W 18D 23L in their last 61 games (1.28 PPG), while Bayern München have gone 43W 8D 10L in their last 61 (2.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or Bayern München away?
Bayern München's away record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.53 PPG; Bayern München away: 1.90 PPG.
Have FC Augsburg or Bayern München been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Augsburg have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Bayern München in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Nov 2024, when Bayern München won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Augsburg's record when hosting Bayern München specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC Augsburg
0
Draws
7
Bayern München
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Bayern München?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 3, Bayern München have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and Bayern München last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Bayern München 1-2 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and Bayern München?
Bayern München have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Bayern München are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC Augsburg at 60%, Bayern München at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for FC Augsburg and 80% for Bayern München. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 63% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / Bayern München away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play Bayern München?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of FC Augsburg's games and 70% of Bayern München's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs Bayern München usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of FC Augsburg's matches and 80% of Bayern München's.
Do FC Augsburg and Bayern München tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Bayern München in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bayern München cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over FC Augsburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayern München beat FC Augsburg 1-3 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 0.82 xG and Bayern München 1.17 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Bayern München outscored their 1.17 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.72 / defence 0.69 against Bayern München attack 1.20 / defence 0.74, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 25% | Draw 31% | Bayern München 44%, with Bayern München to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 56%, Bayern München 79%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Bayern München's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayern München arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.28. Form held, and they took the win. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.