FC Augsburg 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bayer Leverkusen at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
WWK Arena plays host to FC Augsburg versus Bayer Leverkusen in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Sunday 21 February 2021 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
FC Augsburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 0D 7L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg at WWK Arena this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Bayer Leverkusen (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Bayer Leverkusen have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for FC Augsburg, 1.10 for Bayer Leverkusen — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
FC Augsburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Bayer Leverkusen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Augsburg 52% versus Bayer Leverkusen 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 48% | Bayer Leverkusen 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 0.83 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.740 / defence 1.302 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 0.903 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.148 / away 1.455. FC Augsburg's attack strength of 0.740 is below the league average — the 0.83 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 21 FC Augsburg games / 21 Bayer Leverkusen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 17% | Draw 25% | Bayer Leverkusen 58%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 5.88 | Draw 4.00 | Bayer Leverkusen 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Bayer Leverkusen (58%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 50% | Bayer Leverkusen 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Feb 2021, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 17% | Draw 25% | Bayer Leverkusen 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 47% | xG FC Augsburg 0.83 / Bayer Leverkusen 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.740 / def 1.302 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 0.903 / def 0.972 | league avg home 1.148 / away 1.455 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Bayer Leverkusen xG
47%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 21 February 2021 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
FC Augsburg 1 - 1 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 17% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 58% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC Augsburg's attack at 0.74x the league average against Bayer Leverkusen's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 0.83 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bayer Leverkusen's attack (0.90x) against FC Augsburg's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.71.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.1%), 0-2 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
17%
5.86
25%
3.96
58%
1.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.6%
Away win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
2.54
1.71
Bayer Leverkusen xG
5.86
17%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
1.73
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
18%
5.54
44%
2.28
Win to Nil
3%
32.45
25%
3.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 13.5 | 11.6 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.71 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 21 outings, FC Augsburg have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 6W 4D 11L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bayer Leverkusen's form line: 10W 6D 5L from 21 games, 1.71 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-D. The sample for Bayer Leverkusen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bayer Leverkusen are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Augsburg.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FC Augsburg have posted 0.80 PPG from 10 outings (2W 2D 6L).
On the road, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayer Leverkusen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 1.86 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bayer Leverkusen in 62%.
Last 21 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Blended
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 6W 4D 11L in their last 21 games (1.05 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 10W 6D 5L in their last 21 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
Bayer Leverkusen's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 0.80 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 1.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
FC Augsburg go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bayer Leverkusen won 5-1 on 22 Jan 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Augsburg have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bayer Leverkusen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC Augsburg
0
Draws
6
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 4, Bayer Leverkusen have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Bayer Leverkusen 1-2 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 50%, Bayer Leverkusen 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FC Augsburg) and 50% (Bayer Leverkusen).
On the defensive side: Bayer Leverkusen in 40%; FC Augsburg have failed to score in 50% of games; Bayer Leverkusen in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play Bayer Leverkusen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of FC Augsburg's recent matches and 40% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FC Augsburg's recent games and 50% of Bayer Leverkusen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 22, as FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 0.83 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.71 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.74 / defence 1.30 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 0.90 / defence 0.97, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 17% | Draw 25% | Bayer Leverkusen 58%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 48%, Bayer Leverkusen 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 1.05. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.