FC Augsburg 2-0 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bayer Leverkusen (59%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FC Augsburg face Bayer Leverkusen.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
WWK Arena plays host to FC Augsburg versus Bayer Leverkusen in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Saturday 6 December 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
FC Augsburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Augsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Augsburg at WWK Arena this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bayer Leverkusen (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Bayer Leverkusen have posted 5W 4D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Bayer Leverkusen are the stronger side — 1.50 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FC Augsburg have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Bayer Leverkusen in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Across the last 8 meetings, Bayer Leverkusen have the stronger historical record — 6 wins to FC Augsburg's 2, with 0 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.9 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2025, ended 0–2 with Bayer Leverkusen winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Bayer Leverkusen have won 6 of 8 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
FC Augsburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Bayer Leverkusen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Augsburg 52% and Bayer Leverkusen 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 59% | Bayer Leverkusen 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.45 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 2.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.792 / defence 1.331 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.269 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 1.642 / away 1.445. FC Augsburg's attack strength of 0.792 is below the league average — the 1.45 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bayer Leverkusen have an above-average attack strength of 1.269 — the away xG of 2.44 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 46 FC Augsburg games / 46 Bayer Leverkusen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 21% | Draw 20% | Bayer Leverkusen 59%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 4.76 | Draw 5.00 | Bayer Leverkusen 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Bayer Leverkusen (59%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.89. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.89 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.45 / 2.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.89 combined xG gives a 75% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 60% | Bayer Leverkusen 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Dec 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 21% | Draw 20% | Bayer Leverkusen 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 70% | xG FC Augsburg 1.45 / Bayer Leverkusen 2.44 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.792 / def 1.331 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.269 / def 1.112 | league avg home 1.642 / away 1.445 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
2.44
Bayer Leverkusen xG
70%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 6 December 2025 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
FC Augsburg 2 - 0 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 21% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 59% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen?
Record (8 meetings): FC Augsburg 2W | Draws 0 | Bayer Leverkusen 6W.
What form are FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC Augsburg's attack at 0.79x the league average against Bayer Leverkusen's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bayer Leverkusen's attack (1.27x) against FC Augsburg's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 2.44.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-2 carries the highest individual probability at 8.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.2%), 1-3 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
21%
4.68
20%
5.12
59%
1.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.2%
Draw
1 – 3
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
3.89
2.44
Bayer Leverkusen xG
4.68
21%
Home win
5.12
20%
Draw
1.69
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.35
Clean Sheet
9%
11.51
24%
4.25
Win to Nil
2%
53.82
14%
7.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 6.1 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 3.0 | 7.2 | 8.8 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 2.1 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 5.2 | 6.4 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.6 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.8%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 2.44 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 3.89.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 46 outings, FC Augsburg have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 14W 11D 21L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for FC Augsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bayer Leverkusen's form line: 26W 14D 6L from 46 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-L. The sample for Bayer Leverkusen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bayer Leverkusen are the form team by 0.85 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC Augsburg.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, FC Augsburg have posted 1.27 PPG from 22 outings (8W 4D 10L).
On the road, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 12W 9D 1L from 22 away games — 2.05 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayer Leverkusen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 2.17 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bayer Leverkusen in 70%.
Last 46 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Blended
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 14W 11D 21L in their last 46 games (1.15 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 26W 14D 6L in their last 46 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
Bayer Leverkusen's away record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.27 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 2.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
FC Augsburg go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bayer Leverkusen won 5-1 on 22 Jan 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Augsburg have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bayer Leverkusen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC Augsburg
0
Draws
6
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 4, Bayer Leverkusen have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Bayer Leverkusen 1-2 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 50%, Bayer Leverkusen 77% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 54% for FC Augsburg and 68% for Bayer Leverkusen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Augsburg keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; FC Augsburg have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play Bayer Leverkusen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of FC Augsburg's games and 77% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of FC Augsburg's matches and 68% of Bayer Leverkusen's.
Do FC Augsburg and Bayer Leverkusen tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Augsburg cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bayer Leverkusen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Augsburg beat Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.45 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 2.44 xG, a combined 3.89. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Bayer Leverkusen landed 2.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.79 / defence 1.33 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.27 / defence 1.11, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 21% | Draw 20% | Bayer Leverkusen 59%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a FC Augsburg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 59%, Bayer Leverkusen 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.15. Form was overturned, with FC Augsburg winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.18 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.