FC Augsburg 1-4 1. FC Köln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
WWK Arena plays host to FC Augsburg versus 1. FC Köln in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off: Saturday 30 April 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
FC Augsburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
FC Augsburg's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at WWK Arena this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
1. FC Köln (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, 1. FC Köln have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — FC Augsburg register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, 1. FC Köln in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: FC Augsburg 2W, 1. FC Köln 1W, 0D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2021, ended 2–0 with FC Augsburg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
FC Augsburg — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
1. FC Köln — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Augsburg 54% versus 1. FC Köln 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Augsburg 48% | 1. FC Köln 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Augsburg 1.36 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Augsburg attack 0.914 / defence 0.894 | 1. FC Köln attack 1.021 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.617 / away 1.325. Data: 65 FC Augsburg games / 65 1. FC Köln games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Augsburg 39% | Draw 29% | 1. FC Köln 32%. Fair-value odds: FC Augsburg 2.56 | Draw 3.45 | 1. FC Köln 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Augsburg at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Augsburg 70% | 1. FC Köln 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: WWK Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Apr 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Augsburg 39% | Draw 29% | 1. FC Köln 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 54% | xG FC Augsburg 1.36 / 1. FC Köln 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: FC Augsburg attack 0.914 / def 0.894 | 1. FC Köln attack 1.021 / def 0.921 | league avg home 1.617 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
FC Augsburg xG
Expected Goals
1.21
1. FC Köln xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln kick off?
FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 30 April 2022 at WWK Arena.
What was the final score in FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln?
FC Augsburg 1 - 4 1. FC Köln.
Where is FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln being played?
The match is being played at WWK Arena.
What competition is FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln part of?
FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln?
Our statistical model gives FC Augsburg a 39% chance of winning, 1. FC Köln a 32% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both FC Augsburg and 1. FC Köln will score (BTTS).
Will FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and 1. FC Köln?
Record (3 meetings): FC Augsburg 2W | Draws 0 | 1. FC Köln 1W.
What form are FC Augsburg and 1. FC Köln in?
FC Augsburg (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. 1. FC Köln (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC Augsburg's attack at 0.91x the league average against 1. FC Köln's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — 1. FC Köln's attack (1.02x) against FC Augsburg's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
39%
2.57
29%
3.40
32%
3.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
FC Augsburg xG
Total xG
2.57
1.21
1. FC Köln xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
3.15
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
12%
8.62
8%
12.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.6 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are FC Augsburg and 1. FC Köln expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for FC Augsburg and 1.21 for 1. FC Köln, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Augsburg come into this having played 65 games, going 19W 14D 32L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, 1. FC Köln sit at 1.31 PPG from 65 outings (22W 19D 24L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for FC Augsburg against 1.31 for 1. FC Köln. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
FC Augsburg's home form reads 12W 8D 12L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, 1. FC Köln have taken 1.25 points per game from 32 outings (10W 10D 12L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Augsburg are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Köln are on 1.29 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Köln in 63%.
Last 65 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Augsburg
Current Season
1. FC Köln
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Augsburg and 1. FC Köln in coming into this match?
FC Augsburg have gone 19W 14D 32L in their last 65 games (1.09 PPG), while 1. FC Köln have gone 22W 19D 24L in their last 65 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Augsburg at home or 1. FC Köln away?
FC Augsburg's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Augsburg at home: 1.38 PPG; 1. FC Köln away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since January 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Köln won 1-4 on 30 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Augsburg have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Köln — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC Augsburg
3
Draws
4
1. FC Köln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Augsburg and 1. FC Köln?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Augsburg have won 3, 1. FC Köln have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Augsburg and 1. FC Köln last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when FC Augsburg 2-0 1. FC Köln.
Who has won more matches between FC Augsburg and 1. FC Köln?
1. FC Köln have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Augsburg 59%, 1. FC Köln 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FC Augsburg) and 53% (1. FC Köln).
On the defensive side: 1. FC Köln in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Augsburg home games / 1. FC Köln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Augsburg play 1. FC Köln?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of FC Augsburg's games and 62% of 1. FC Köln's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Augsburg vs 1. FC Köln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FC Augsburg's recent games and 53% of 1. FC Köln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Augsburg and 1. FC Köln tend to score early?
FC Augsburg have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, 1. FC Köln in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant 1. FC Köln run riot with a 1-4 hammering of FC Augsburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Köln beat FC Augsburg 1-4 at WWK Arena, Regular Season - 32, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Augsburg 1.36 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.21 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. 1. FC Köln outscored their 1.21 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Augsburg attack 0.91 / defence 0.89 against 1. FC Köln attack 1.02 / defence 0.92, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Augsburg 39% | Draw 29% | 1. FC Köln 32%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual 1. FC Köln win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Augsburg 48%, 1. FC Köln 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Augsburg's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Köln's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Augsburg 1.09 PPG, 1. FC Köln 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Köln win broke the near-deadlock. FC Augsburg (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.