Eintracht Frankfurt 1-0 FSV Mainz 05 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Eintracht Frankfurt (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Eintracht Frankfurt face FSV Mainz 05.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 10 as Eintracht Frankfurt welcome FSV Mainz 05 to Deutsche Bank Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 9 November 2025 at 18:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W L D W D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eintracht Frankfurt's home record at Deutsche Bank Park: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
FSV Mainz 05 — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FSV Mainz 05, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, FSV Mainz 05 have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On current form, Eintracht Frankfurt have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Eintracht Frankfurt, 1 for FSV Mainz 05 and 4 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Eintracht Frankfurt in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
FSV Mainz 05 in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Frankfurt 67% and FSV Mainz 05 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Frankfurt 67% | FSV Mainz 05 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 2.23 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.161 / defence 1.107 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.971 / defence 1.158. League average goals — home 1.662 / away 1.476. Data: 43 Eintracht Frankfurt games / 43 FSV Mainz 05 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 52% | Draw 21% | FSV Mainz 05 27%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 1.92 | Draw 4.76 | FSV Mainz 05 3.70. Eintracht Frankfurt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.82. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.82 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (2.23 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Eintracht Frankfurt as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.82 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 73% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 71% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Eintracht Frankfurt 50% | FSV Mainz 05 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05 | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Deutsche Bank Park • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Nov 2025, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 52% | Draw 21% | FSV Mainz 05 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 71% | xG Eintracht Frankfurt 2.23 / FSV Mainz 05 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.161 / def 1.107 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.971 / def 1.158 | league avg home 1.662 / away 1.476 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.23
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.59
FSV Mainz 05 xG
71%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
53%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05 kick off?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05 kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 9 November 2025 at Deutsche Bank Park.
What was the final score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05?
Eintracht Frankfurt 1 - 0 FSV Mainz 05.
Where is Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05 being played?
The match is being played at Deutsche Bank Park.
What competition is Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05 part of?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05 is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 52% chance of winning, FSV Mainz 05 a 27% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Eintracht Frankfurt and FSV Mainz 05 will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and FSV Mainz 05?
Record (8 meetings): Eintracht Frankfurt 3W | Draws 4 | FSV Mainz 05 1W.
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and FSV Mainz 05 in?
Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Eintracht Frankfurt's attack at 1.16x the league average against FSV Mainz 05's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 2.23 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FSV Mainz 05's attack versus Eintracht Frankfurt's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
52%
1.91
21%
4.81
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.8%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.23
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Total xG
3.82
1.59
FSV Mainz 05 xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.81
21%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
53%
Over 3.5
1.89
47%
Under 3.5
2.13
34%
Over 4.5
2.94
66%
Under 4.5
1.52
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.40
29%
BTTS No
3.48
Clean Sheet
20%
4.88
11%
9.35
Win to Nil
11%
9.35
3%
34.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 7.8 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.7 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 6.5 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.8%.
How many goals are Eintracht Frankfurt and FSV Mainz 05 expected to score?
The model projects 2.23 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 1.59 for FSV Mainz 05, a combined total of 3.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Eintracht Frankfurt's recent record stands at 21W 11D 11L from 43 games, a 1.72 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FSV Mainz 05, meanwhile, have gone 15W 12D 16L across 43 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for FSV Mainz 05 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Eintracht Frankfurt on 1.72 PPG, FSV Mainz 05 on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Eintracht Frankfurt have managed 12W 4D 5L from 21 games — 1.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FSV Mainz 05's away record stands at 9W 3D 9L across 21 trips, a 1.43 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eintracht Frankfurt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Eintracht Frankfurt are averaging 2.09 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; FSV Mainz 05 are on 1.51 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
FSV Mainz 05
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and FSV Mainz 05 in coming into this match?
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 21W 11D 11L in their last 43 games (1.72 PPG), while FSV Mainz 05 have gone 15W 12D 16L in their last 43 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Frankfurt at home or FSV Mainz 05 away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 1.90 PPG; FSV Mainz 05 away: 1.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 May 2023, when Eintracht Frankfurt won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eintracht Frankfurt's record when hosting FSV Mainz 05 specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Eintracht Frankfurt
4
Draws
2
FSV Mainz 05
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and FSV Mainz 05?
From 10 meetings on record, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 4, FSV Mainz 05 have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Frankfurt and FSV Mainz 05 last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when FSV Mainz 05 2-1 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Frankfurt and FSV Mainz 05?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Frankfurt 62%, FSV Mainz 05 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Eintracht Frankfurt and 71% for FSV Mainz 05. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Eintracht Frankfurt keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; FSV Mainz 05 in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Frankfurt home games / FSV Mainz 05 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Frankfurt play FSV Mainz 05?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Eintracht Frankfurt's games and 57% of FSV Mainz 05's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Eintracht Frankfurt's matches and 71% of FSV Mainz 05's.
Do Eintracht Frankfurt and FSV Mainz 05 tend to score early?
Eintracht Frankfurt have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, FSV Mainz 05 in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Eintracht Frankfurt edge out FSV Mainz 05 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Frankfurt beat FSV Mainz 05 1-0 at Deutsche Bank Park, Regular Season - 10, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 2.23 xG and FSV Mainz 05 1.59 xG, a combined 3.82. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Eintracht Frankfurt fell 1.2 short of their projected output. FSV Mainz 05 landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.16 / defence 1.11 against FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.97 / defence 1.16, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 52% | Draw 21% | FSV Mainz 05 27%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 90% and missed. Over 3.5 was 53% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 67%, FSV Mainz 05 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Eintracht Frankfurt 1.72 PPG, FSV Mainz 05 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eintracht Frankfurt win broke the near-deadlock. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.76 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.