Eintracht Frankfurt 1-0 FSV Mainz 05 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Eintracht Frankfurt (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Eintracht Frankfurt face FSV Mainz 05.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 19 as Eintracht Frankfurt welcome FSV Mainz 05 to Frankfurt Arena. Kick-off is set for Friday 26 January 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Frankfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eintracht Frankfurt's home record at Frankfurt Arena: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Eintracht Frankfurt are significantly better at Frankfurt Arena than their overall form suggests.
FSV Mainz 05 — All Games: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for FSV Mainz 05, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, FSV Mainz 05 have posted 0W 7D 3L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Eintracht Frankfurt have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Eintracht Frankfurt register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, FSV Mainz 05 in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Eintracht Frankfurt, 0 for FSV Mainz 05 and 3 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Eintracht Frankfurt in-play and half-time data (51 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
FSV Mainz 05 in-play and half-time data (51 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Eintracht Frankfurt 65% and FSV Mainz 05 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Frankfurt 59% | FSV Mainz 05 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Frankfurt 1.76 xG and FSV Mainz 05 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.095 / defence 0.902 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.777 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 1.750 / away 1.303. Data: 52 Eintracht Frankfurt games / 51 FSV Mainz 05 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 57% | Draw 25% | FSV Mainz 05 18%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Frankfurt 1.75 | Draw 4.00 | FSV Mainz 05 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Eintracht Frankfurt (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Eintracht Frankfurt as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Eintracht Frankfurt 60% | FSV Mainz 05 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05 | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Frankfurt Arena • Kick-off: Friday 26 Jan 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Frankfurt 57% | Draw 25% | FSV Mainz 05 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 50% | xG Eintracht Frankfurt 1.76 / FSV Mainz 05 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.095 / def 0.902 | FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.777 / def 0.920 | league avg home 1.750 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Frankfurt (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Expected Goals
0.91
FSV Mainz 05 xG
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05 kick off?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05 kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 26 January 2024 at Frankfurt Arena.
What was the final score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05?
Eintracht Frankfurt 1 - 0 FSV Mainz 05.
Where is Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05 being played?
The match is being played at Frankfurt Arena.
What competition is Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05 part of?
Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05 is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Frankfurt a 57% chance of winning, FSV Mainz 05 a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Frankfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Eintracht Frankfurt and FSV Mainz 05 will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and FSV Mainz 05?
Record (5 meetings): Eintracht Frankfurt 2W | Draws 3 | FSV Mainz 05 0W.
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and FSV Mainz 05 in?
Eintracht Frankfurt (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. FSV Mainz 05 (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Eintracht Frankfurt's attack at 1.09x the league average against FSV Mainz 05's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.76 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FSV Mainz 05's attack versus Eintracht Frankfurt's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 2-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Frankfurt Win
57%
1.77
25%
4.02
18%
5.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Eintracht Frankfurt xG
Total xG
2.67
0.91
FSV Mainz 05 xG
1.77
57%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
5.41
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
17%
5.82
Win to Nil
23%
4.40
3%
31.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.1 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Eintracht Frankfurt and FSV Mainz 05 expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Eintracht Frankfurt and 0.91 for FSV Mainz 05, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Eintracht Frankfurt's recent record stands at 20W 18D 13L from 51 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Eintracht Frankfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FSV Mainz 05, meanwhile, have gone 13W 18D 20L across 51 games — 1.12 PPG, with L-D-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for FSV Mainz 05 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Eintracht Frankfurt by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FSV Mainz 05 heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Eintracht Frankfurt have managed 13W 8D 3L from 24 games — 1.96 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.53 PPG overall — Eintracht Frankfurt are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
FSV Mainz 05's away record stands at 4W 10D 10L across 24 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Eintracht Frankfurt come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Eintracht Frankfurt are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; FSV Mainz 05 are on 1.33 scored and 1.65 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Eintracht Frankfurt have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; FSV Mainz 05 in 63%.
Last 51 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Frankfurt
Blended
FSV Mainz 05
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Frankfurt and FSV Mainz 05 in coming into this match?
Eintracht Frankfurt have gone 20W 18D 13L in their last 51 games (1.53 PPG), while FSV Mainz 05 have gone 13W 18D 20L in their last 51 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Frankfurt at home or FSV Mainz 05 away?
Eintracht Frankfurt's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Frankfurt at home: 1.96 PPG; FSV Mainz 05 away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 May 2023, when Eintracht Frankfurt won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Eintracht Frankfurt's record when hosting FSV Mainz 05 specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Eintracht Frankfurt
4
Draws
2
FSV Mainz 05
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Frankfurt and FSV Mainz 05?
From 10 meetings on record, Eintracht Frankfurt have won 4, FSV Mainz 05 have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Frankfurt and FSV Mainz 05 last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when FSV Mainz 05 2-1 Eintracht Frankfurt.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Frankfurt and FSV Mainz 05?
Eintracht Frankfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Eintracht Frankfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
FSV Mainz 05 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Frankfurt 58%, FSV Mainz 05 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Eintracht Frankfurt) and 58% (FSV Mainz 05).
On the defensive side: Eintracht Frankfurt keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Frankfurt home games / FSV Mainz 05 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Frankfurt play FSV Mainz 05?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Eintracht Frankfurt's games and 62% of FSV Mainz 05's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Eintracht Frankfurt vs FSV Mainz 05 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Eintracht Frankfurt's recent games and 58% of FSV Mainz 05's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eintracht Frankfurt and FSV Mainz 05 tend to score early?
Eintracht Frankfurt have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, FSV Mainz 05 in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Eintracht Frankfurt edge out FSV Mainz 05 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Frankfurt beat FSV Mainz 05 1-0 at Frankfurt Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Frankfurt 1.76 xG and FSV Mainz 05 0.91 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FSV Mainz 05 landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Frankfurt attack 1.09 / defence 0.90 against FSV Mainz 05 attack 0.78 / defence 0.92, drawn from 52/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Frankfurt 57% | Draw 25% | FSV Mainz 05 18%, with Eintracht Frankfurt to win its most likely call at 57%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Frankfurt 59%, FSV Mainz 05 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Frankfurt's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
FSV Mainz 05's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Eintracht Frankfurt arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.12. That form edge translated into the three points. Eintracht Frankfurt (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. FSV Mainz 05 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.