Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-2 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union Berlin at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 20 as Borussia Mönchengladbach welcome Union Berlin to Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 January 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Borussia Mönchengladbach stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Borussia Mönchengladbach have posted 4W 2D 4L at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Union Berlin have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Union Berlin have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.10 PPG, Union Berlin 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Borussia Mönchengladbach, 1 for Union Berlin and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2021, ended 1–2 with Union Berlin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Borussia Mönchengladbach trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Union Berlin trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Mönchengladbach 70% and Union Berlin 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Mönchengladbach 68% | Union Berlin 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.55 xG and Union Berlin 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.965 / defence 1.234 | Union Berlin attack 0.963 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.673 / away 1.343. Data: 53 Borussia Mönchengladbach games / 53 Union Berlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 35% | Draw 28% | Union Berlin 37%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Union Berlin 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Union Berlin are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Union Berlin offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.14 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Mönchengladbach 70% | Union Berlin 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jan 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 35% | Draw 28% | Union Berlin 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 65% | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.55 / Union Berlin 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.965 / def 1.234 | Union Berlin attack 0.963 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.673 / away 1.343 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Union Berlin xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 22 January 2022 at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 1 - 2 Union Berlin.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 35% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and Union Berlin will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Union Berlin?
Record (1 meetings): Borussia Mönchengladbach 0W | Draws 0 | Union Berlin 1W.
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Union Berlin in?
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Union Berlin (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack at 0.96x the league average against Union Berlin's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Union Berlin's attack versus Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
35%
2.85
28%
3.60
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
3.14
1.59
Union Berlin xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
20%
4.93
21%
4.71
Win to Nil
7%
14.04
8%
12.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 6.9 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.7 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.2 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.59 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent record stands at 19W 14D 20L from 53 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union Berlin, meanwhile, have gone 20W 21D 12L across 53 games — 1.53 PPG, with L-D-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Borussia Mönchengladbach on 1.34 PPG, Union Berlin on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Borussia Mönchengladbach have managed 12W 6D 8L from 26 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union Berlin's away record stands at 6W 10D 10L across 26 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.53 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Union Berlin's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Mönchengladbach come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 1.45 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Union Berlin in 66%.
Last 53 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
Union Berlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 19W 14D 20L in their last 53 games (1.34 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 20W 21D 12L in their last 53 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or Union Berlin away?
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.62 PPG; Union Berlin away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Borussia Mönchengladbach's record when hosting Union Berlin specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1
Draws
6
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Union Berlin?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 3, Union Berlin have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and Union Berlin last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-0 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Union Berlin?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Borussia Mönchengladbach at 69%, Union Berlin at 65%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Borussia Mönchengladbach) and 50% (Union Berlin). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Mönchengladbach play Union Berlin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's games and 65% of Union Berlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Union Berlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's matches and 50% of Union Berlin's.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and Union Berlin tend to score early?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Union Berlin in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Union Berlin edge out Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Union Berlin beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-2 at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK, Regular Season - 20, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.55 xG and Union Berlin 1.59 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.96 / defence 1.23 against Union Berlin attack 0.96 / defence 0.96, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 35% | Draw 28% | Union Berlin 37%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 68%, Union Berlin 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Union Berlin's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.34 PPG, Union Berlin 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Union Berlin win broke the near-deadlock. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward. Union Berlin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.