Borussia Mönchengladbach 0-0 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 23 as Borussia Mönchengladbach welcome SC Freiburg to Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK. Kick-off is set for Saturday 4 March 2023 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Borussia Mönchengladbach — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Mönchengladbach at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Borussia Mönchengladbach are significantly better at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SC Freiburg have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.90. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SC Freiburg's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Borussia Mönchengladbach) versus 1.70 (SC Freiburg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Borussia Mönchengladbach, 1 for SC Freiburg and 2 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Borussia Mönchengladbach in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
SC Freiburg in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Mönchengladbach 70% and SC Freiburg 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Mönchengladbach 66% | SC Freiburg 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.59 xG and SC Freiburg 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.151 / defence 1.106 | SC Freiburg attack 0.961 / defence 1.208. League average goals — home 1.867 / away 1.254. SC Freiburg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.208 — this is suppressing Borussia Mönchengladbach's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 56 Borussia Mönchengladbach games / 56 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 63% | Draw 20% | SC Freiburg 17%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.59 | Draw 5.00 | SC Freiburg 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Mönchengladbach (63%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.93. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.93 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.59 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Borussia Mönchengladbach at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.93 combined xG gives a 75% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Borussia Mönchengladbach 60% | SC Freiburg 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Mar 2023, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 63% | Draw 20% | SC Freiburg 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 70% | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.59 / SC Freiburg 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.151 / def 1.106 | SC Freiburg attack 0.961 / def 1.208 | league avg home 1.867 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.59
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
1.33
SC Freiburg xG
70%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 4 March 2023 at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 0 - 0 SC Freiburg.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 63% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 17% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg?
Record (3 meetings): Borussia Mönchengladbach 0W | Draws 2 | SC Freiburg 1W.
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg in?
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. SC Freiburg (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Borussia Mönchengladbach's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against SC Freiburg's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.59. The same calculation in reverse, SC Freiburg's attack versus Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.7%), 3-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
63%
1.58
20%
4.95
17%
6.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.6%
Home win
1 – 1
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.59
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
3.93
1.33
SC Freiburg xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.95
20%
Draw
6.03
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.44
30%
BTTS No
3.28
Clean Sheet
26%
3.79
7%
13.38
Win to Nil
17%
6.00
1%
80.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 7.6 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.8%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 2.59 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.33 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 3.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 56 outings, Borussia Mönchengladbach have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 20W 14D 22L record — W-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Freiburg's form line: 27W 15D 14L from 56 games, 1.71 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-D. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Borussia Mönchengladbach on 1.32 PPG, SC Freiburg on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Borussia Mönchengladbach have posted 1.79 PPG from 28 outings (15W 5D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 1.32 PPG overall — Borussia Mönchengladbach are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, SC Freiburg have gone 12W 7D 9L from 28 away games — 1.54 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.66 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
SC Freiburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 20W 14D 22L in their last 56 games (1.32 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 27W 15D 14L in their last 56 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or SC Freiburg away?
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.79 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Borussia Mönchengladbach or SC Freiburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, SC Freiburg in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Dec 2021, when SC Freiburg won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's record when hosting SC Freiburg specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Borussia Mönchengladbach
5
Draws
5
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 0, SC Freiburg have won 5, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when SC Freiburg 2-1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg?
SC Freiburg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Mönchengladbach 71%, SC Freiburg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 61% for SC Freiburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Freiburg in 39%; SC Freiburg in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Mönchengladbach play SC Freiburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's games and 50% of SC Freiburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Freiburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's matches and 61% of SC Freiburg's.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg tend to score early?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, SC Freiburg in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Borussia Mönchengladbach's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Freiburg finished level at 0-0 at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK, Regular Season - 23, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.59 xG and SC Freiburg 1.33 xG, a combined 3.93. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Borussia Mönchengladbach fell 2.6 short of their projected output. SC Freiburg landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.15 / defence 1.11 against SC Freiburg attack 0.96 / defence 1.21, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 63% | Draw 20% | SC Freiburg 17%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 92% and missed. Over 3.5 was 55% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 66%, SC Freiburg 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
SC Freiburg's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.32 PPG, SC Freiburg 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.