Borussia Mönchengladbach 4-2 Borussia Dortmund – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK plays host to Borussia Mönchengladbach versus Borussia Dortmund in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Friday 11 November 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Borussia Mönchengladbach have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Borussia Mönchengladbach have posted 7W 0D 3L at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Borussia Mönchengladbach are significantly better at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK than their overall form suggests.
Borussia Dortmund (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Dortmund's form when playing away from home: 5W 0D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Borussia Dortmund are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1W, Borussia Dortmund 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Feb 2022, ended 0–6 with Borussia Dortmund winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Borussia Mönchengladbach goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Borussia Dortmund goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Mönchengladbach 71% and Borussia Dortmund 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Borussia Mönchengladbach 65% | Borussia Dortmund 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.95 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.133 / defence 0.997 | Borussia Dortmund attack 0.929 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.878 / away 1.319. Data: 48 Borussia Mönchengladbach games / 48 Borussia Dortmund games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 54% | Draw 22% | Borussia Dortmund 24%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.85 | Draw 4.55 | Borussia Dortmund 4.17. Borussia Mönchengladbach hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.95 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Borussia Mönchengladbach as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Borussia Dortmund (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Borussia Mönchengladbach if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Mönchengladbach 70% | Borussia Dortmund 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK • Kick-off: Friday 11 Nov 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 54% | Draw 22% | Borussia Dortmund 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 60% | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.95 / Borussia Dortmund 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.133 / def 0.997 | Borussia Dortmund attack 0.929 / def 0.915 | league avg home 1.878 / away 1.319 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Borussia Dortmund xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 11 November 2022 at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 4 - 2 Borussia Dortmund.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 54% chance of winning, Borussia Dortmund a 24% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and Borussia Dortmund will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Borussia Dortmund?
Record (2 meetings): Borussia Mönchengladbach 1W | Draws 0 | Borussia Dortmund 1W.
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Borussia Dortmund in?
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Borussia Mönchengladbach's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Borussia Dortmund's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.95. Flip it around — Borussia Dortmund's attack (0.93x) against Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
54%
1.84
22%
4.55
24%
4.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
3.17
1.22
Borussia Dortmund xG
1.84
54%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
4.21
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
29%
3.39
14%
7.01
Win to Nil
16%
6.25
3%
29.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 10.0 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.7 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Borussia Dortmund expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.22 for Borussia Dortmund, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent record stands at 17W 13D 18L from 48 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Dortmund, meanwhile, have gone 30W 4D 14L across 48 games — 1.96 PPG, with L-W-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Borussia Dortmund by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Borussia Mönchengladbach heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Borussia Mönchengladbach have managed 13W 4D 7L from 24 games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.33 PPG overall — Borussia Mönchengladbach are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Borussia Dortmund's away record stands at 12W 3D 9L across 24 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Borussia Dortmund are on 2.25 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games; Borussia Dortmund in 65%.
Last 48 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and Borussia Dortmund in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 17W 13D 18L in their last 48 games (1.33 PPG), while Borussia Dortmund have gone 30W 4D 14L in their last 48 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or Borussia Dortmund away?
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.79 PPG; Borussia Dortmund away: 1.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Borussia Dortmund won 6-0 on 20 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Borussia Dortmund — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1
Draws
6
Borussia Dortmund
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Borussia Dortmund?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 3, Borussia Dortmund have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and Borussia Dortmund last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-0 Borussia Dortmund.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for Borussia Mönchengladbach, 67% for Borussia Dortmund — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 62% for Borussia Dortmund. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 54% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / Borussia Dortmund away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Mönchengladbach play Borussia Dortmund?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's games and 67% of Borussia Dortmund's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Borussia Dortmund usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's matches and 62% of Borussia Dortmund's.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and Borussia Dortmund tend to score early?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Borussia Dortmund in 96% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Borussia Mönchengladbach cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Borussia Dortmund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Mönchengladbach beat Borussia Dortmund 4-2 at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK, Regular Season - 15, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.95 xG and Borussia Dortmund 1.22 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Borussia Mönchengladbach beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 1.13 / defence 1.00 against Borussia Dortmund attack 0.93 / defence 0.92, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 54% | Draw 22% | Borussia Dortmund 24%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 65%, Borussia Dortmund 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.33. Form was overturned, with Borussia Mönchengladbach winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.04 average — above their attacking norm. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.