Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-2 1899 Hoffenheim – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Borussia Mönchengladbach at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1899 Hoffenheim encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
1899 Hoffenheim make the trip to Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK to face Borussia Mönchengladbach in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13. The match kicks off on Saturday 19 December 2020 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W D D D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 2W 4D 0L this season (6 games, 1.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
1899 Hoffenheim have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for 1899 Hoffenheim, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 1W 2D 3L from 6 away fixtures this term (0.83 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Borussia Mönchengladbach. A 1.10 PPG lead over 1899 Hoffenheim (1.70 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Borussia Mönchengladbach register both teams scoring in 83% of relevant games, 1899 Hoffenheim in 100%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Borussia Mönchengladbach — key trading statistics (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
1899 Hoffenheim — key trading statistics (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Mönchengladbach 83% and 1899 Hoffenheim 83% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Mönchengladbach 58% | 1899 Hoffenheim 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.77 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.986 / defence 0.896 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.743 / defence 1.439. League average goals — home 1.248 / away 1.603. 1899 Hoffenheim bring a strong defensive rating of 1.439 — this is suppressing Borussia Mönchengladbach's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Borussia Mönchengladbach games / 12 1899 Hoffenheim games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 51% | Draw 30% | 1899 Hoffenheim 19%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.96 | Draw 3.33 | 1899 Hoffenheim 5.26. Borussia Mönchengladbach hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Borussia Mönchengladbach at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Borussia Mönchengladbach if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Mönchengladbach 83% | 1899 Hoffenheim 100% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1899 Hoffenheim | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Dec 2020, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Mönchengladbach 51% | Draw 30% | 1899 Hoffenheim 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.77 / 1899 Hoffenheim 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.986 / def 0.896 | 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.743 / def 1.439 | league avg home 1.248 / away 1.603 • Poisson stance: Borussia Mönchengladbach (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Expected Goals
1.07
1899 Hoffenheim xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1899 Hoffenheim kick off?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1899 Hoffenheim kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 19 December 2020 at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Borussia Mönchengladbach 1 - 2 1899 Hoffenheim.
Where is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1899 Hoffenheim being played?
The match is being played at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK.
What competition is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1899 Hoffenheim part of?
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1899 Hoffenheim is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach a 51% chance of winning, 1899 Hoffenheim a 19% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1899 Hoffenheim will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1899 Hoffenheim have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1899 Hoffenheim?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1899 Hoffenheim in?
Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-D-D-D. 1899 Hoffenheim (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack at 0.99x the league average against 1899 Hoffenheim's defence at 1.44x — combine the two and it projects 1.77 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — 1899 Hoffenheim's attack (0.74x) against Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Mönchengladbach Win
51%
1.98
30%
3.33
19%
5.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
Total xG
2.84
1.07
1899 Hoffenheim xG
1.98
51%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
5.14
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
17%
5.87
Win to Nil
17%
5.75
3%
30.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 11.1 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1899 Hoffenheim expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.07 for 1899 Hoffenheim, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1899 Hoffenheim?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Borussia Mönchengladbach come into this having played 12 games, going 4W 6D 2L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D-D. The sample for Borussia Mönchengladbach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, 1899 Hoffenheim sit at 1.00 PPG from 12 outings (3W 3D 6L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for 1899 Hoffenheim is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Borussia Mönchengladbach carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of 1899 Hoffenheim — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home form reads 2W 4D 0L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, 1899 Hoffenheim have taken 0.83 points per game from 6 outings (1W 2D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Mönchengladbach come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Borussia Mönchengladbach are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; 1899 Hoffenheim are on 1.58 scored and 1.83 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Mönchengladbach have seen both teams score in 83% of their recent games; 1899 Hoffenheim in 83%.
Last 12 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Blended
1899 Hoffenheim
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1899 Hoffenheim in coming into this match?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 4W 6D 2L in their last 12 games (1.50 PPG), while 1899 Hoffenheim have gone 3W 3D 6L in their last 12 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home or 1899 Hoffenheim away?
Borussia Mönchengladbach's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Mönchengladbach at home: 1.67 PPG; 1899 Hoffenheim away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Borussia Mönchengladbach won 5-1 on 14 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against 1899 Hoffenheim — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Borussia Mönchengladbach
2
Draws
2
1899 Hoffenheim
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1899 Hoffenheim?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 6, 1899 Hoffenheim have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1899 Hoffenheim last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Borussia Mönchengladbach 4-0 1899 Hoffenheim.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1899 Hoffenheim?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Borussia Mönchengladbach see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
1899 Hoffenheim are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 83% for Borussia Mönchengladbach, 100% for 1899 Hoffenheim — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 17% (Borussia Mönchengladbach) and 67% (1899 Hoffenheim).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Mönchengladbach home games / 1899 Hoffenheim away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Mönchengladbach play 1899 Hoffenheim?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's games and 100% of 1899 Hoffenheim's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Mönchengladbach vs 1899 Hoffenheim usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's recent games and 67% of 1899 Hoffenheim's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1899 Hoffenheim tend to score early?
Borussia Mönchengladbach have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, 1899 Hoffenheim in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as 1899 Hoffenheim defy the odds to beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1899 Hoffenheim beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-2 at Stadion im BORUSSIA-PARK, Regular Season - 13, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.77 xG and 1899 Hoffenheim 1.07 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. 1899 Hoffenheim outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.99 / defence 0.90 against 1899 Hoffenheim attack 0.74 / defence 1.44, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Mönchengladbach 51% | Draw 30% | 1899 Hoffenheim 19%, with Borussia Mönchengladbach to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a 1899 Hoffenheim win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Mönchengladbach 58%, 1899 Hoffenheim 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 83%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.
1899 Hoffenheim's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Mönchengladbach arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with 1899 Hoffenheim winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. 1899 Hoffenheim (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.