Borussia Dortmund 6-1 VfL Wolfsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Borussia Dortmund vs VfL Wolfsburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Signal-Iduna-Park plays host to Borussia Dortmund versus VfL Wolfsburg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Saturday 16 April 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Borussia Dortmund have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Borussia Dortmund at Signal-Iduna-Park this season: 7W 0D 3L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
VfL Wolfsburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
VfL Wolfsburg away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Borussia Dortmund's favour (2.00 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Borussia Dortmund lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2021, ended 3–1 with Borussia Dortmund winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Borussia Dortmund half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 85% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
VfL Wolfsburg half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Borussia Dortmund 68% versus VfL Wolfsburg 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Dortmund 73% | VfL Wolfsburg 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Dortmund 2.64 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.389 / defence 1.147 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.895 / defence 1.172. League average goals — home 1.622 / away 1.318. Borussia Dortmund carry an above-average attack strength of 1.389 — their λ of 2.64 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 63 Borussia Dortmund games / 63 VfL Wolfsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 64% | Draw 19% | VfL Wolfsburg 17%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Dortmund 1.56 | Draw 5.26 | VfL Wolfsburg 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Dortmund (64%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.99. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.99 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (2.64 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 76% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Borussia Dortmund 60% | VfL Wolfsburg 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Dortmund vs VfL Wolfsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Signal-Iduna-Park • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Apr 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 64% | Draw 19% | VfL Wolfsburg 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 70% | xG Borussia Dortmund 2.64 / VfL Wolfsburg 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.389 / def 1.147 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.895 / def 1.172 | league avg home 1.622 / away 1.318 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.64
Borussia Dortmund xG
Expected Goals
1.35
VfL Wolfsburg xG
70%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Dortmund vs VfL Wolfsburg kick off?
Borussia Dortmund vs VfL Wolfsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 16 April 2022 at Signal-Iduna-Park.
What was the final score in Borussia Dortmund vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Borussia Dortmund 6 - 1 VfL Wolfsburg.
Where is Borussia Dortmund vs VfL Wolfsburg being played?
The match is being played at Signal-Iduna-Park.
What competition is Borussia Dortmund vs VfL Wolfsburg part of?
Borussia Dortmund vs VfL Wolfsburg is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Dortmund vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Dortmund a 64% chance of winning, VfL Wolfsburg a 17% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Borussia Dortmund and VfL Wolfsburg will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Dortmund vs VfL Wolfsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and VfL Wolfsburg?
Record (1 meetings): Borussia Dortmund 1W | Draws 0 | VfL Wolfsburg 0W.
What form are Borussia Dortmund and VfL Wolfsburg in?
Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Borussia Dortmund's attacking strength (1.39x league average) is weighed against VfL Wolfsburg's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.64. Flip it around — VfL Wolfsburg's attack (0.90x) against Borussia Dortmund's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.7%. Close behind: 3-1 (7.7%), 1-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
64%
1.56
19%
5.31
17%
5.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.7%
Home win
1 – 1
6.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.64
Borussia Dortmund xG
Total xG
3.99
1.35
VfL Wolfsburg xG
1.56
64%
Home win
5.31
19%
Draw
5.88
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.44
30%
BTTS No
3.29
Clean Sheet
26%
3.87
7%
14.01
Win to Nil
17%
6.02
1%
82.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 6.6 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.7 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 7.7 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Dortmund vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are Borussia Dortmund and VfL Wolfsburg expected to score?
The model projects 2.64 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.35 for VfL Wolfsburg, a combined total of 3.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Dortmund vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 63 outings, Borussia Dortmund have picked up 1.97 PPG on a 39W 7D 17L record — W-W-D-L-W across the most recent five.
VfL Wolfsburg's form line: 27W 14D 22L from 63 games, 1.51 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-W.
Put side by side, Borussia Dortmund are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against VfL Wolfsburg.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Borussia Dortmund have posted 2.19 PPG from 31 outings (22W 2D 7L).
On the road, VfL Wolfsburg have gone 11W 8D 12L from 31 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Borussia Dortmund are averaging 2.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; VfL Wolfsburg are on 1.49 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Dortmund have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Defensively: VfL Wolfsburg in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Dortmund
Current Season
VfL Wolfsburg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Dortmund and VfL Wolfsburg in coming into this match?
Borussia Dortmund have gone 39W 7D 17L in their last 63 games (1.97 PPG), while VfL Wolfsburg have gone 27W 14D 22L in their last 63 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Dortmund at home or VfL Wolfsburg away?
Borussia Dortmund's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Dortmund at home: 2.19 PPG; VfL Wolfsburg away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Borussia Dortmund or VfL Wolfsburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Borussia Dortmund have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, VfL Wolfsburg in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Borussia Dortmund go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Borussia Dortmund won 6-0 on 7 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Borussia Dortmund have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against VfL Wolfsburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Borussia Dortmund
1
Draws
1
VfL Wolfsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and VfL Wolfsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Dortmund have won 8, VfL Wolfsburg have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Dortmund and VfL Wolfsburg last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when VfL Wolfsburg 1-2 Borussia Dortmund.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Dortmund and VfL Wolfsburg?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Dortmund 64%, VfL Wolfsburg 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 81% for Borussia Dortmund and 55% for VfL Wolfsburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 55% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Dortmund keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Dortmund home games / VfL Wolfsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Dortmund play VfL Wolfsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Borussia Dortmund's games and 52% of VfL Wolfsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Dortmund vs VfL Wolfsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 81% of Borussia Dortmund's matches and 55% of VfL Wolfsburg's.
Do Borussia Dortmund and VfL Wolfsburg tend to score early?
Borussia Dortmund have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, VfL Wolfsburg in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Borussia Dortmund run riot with a 6-1 hammering of VfL Wolfsburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat VfL Wolfsburg 6-1 at Signal-Iduna-Park, Regular Season - 30, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Dortmund 2.64 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.35 xG, a combined 3.99. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. Borussia Dortmund beat their projection by 3.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Dortmund attack 1.39 / defence 1.15 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.90 / defence 1.17, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Dortmund 64% | Draw 19% | VfL Wolfsburg 17%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 64%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Dortmund 73%, VfL Wolfsburg 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.51. That form edge translated into the three points. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.61 average — above their attacking norm. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.