Borussia Dortmund 3-3 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Borussia Dortmund at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Borussia Dortmund host VfB Stuttgart at Signal Iduna Park in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 November 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Borussia Dortmund stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Borussia Dortmund's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 games at Signal Iduna Park this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Signal Iduna Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, VfB Stuttgart have recorded 7W 0D 3L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, VfB Stuttgart have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Borussia Dortmund 2.10 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 2.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Borussia Dortmund have won 3, VfB Stuttgart 4, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2025, ended 1–2 with VfB Stuttgart winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Borussia Dortmund trading profile (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
VfB Stuttgart trading profile (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Dortmund 61% and VfB Stuttgart 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Borussia Dortmund 61% | VfB Stuttgart 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Dortmund 1.62 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Dortmund attack 0.980 / defence 0.692 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.073 / defence 1.006. League average goals — home 1.645 / away 1.446. Borussia Dortmund's defence rating of 0.692 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 Borussia Dortmund games / 44 VfB Stuttgart games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 50% | Draw 25% | VfB Stuttgart 25%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Dortmund 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | VfB Stuttgart 4.00. Borussia Dortmund hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Dortmund are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Borussia Dortmund offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Borussia Dortmund 30% | VfB Stuttgart 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Signal Iduna Park • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Nov 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 50% | Draw 25% | VfB Stuttgart 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Borussia Dortmund 1.62 / VfB Stuttgart 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Dortmund attack 0.980 / def 0.692 | VfB Stuttgart attack 1.073 / def 1.006 | league avg home 1.645 / away 1.446 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Borussia Dortmund xG
Expected Goals
1.07
VfB Stuttgart xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 22 November 2025 at Signal Iduna Park.
What was the final score in Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart?
Borussia Dortmund 3 - 3 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at Signal Iduna Park.
What competition is Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Dortmund a 50% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart?
Record (8 meetings): Borussia Dortmund 3W | Draws 1 | VfB Stuttgart 4W.
What form are Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart in?
Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-W-W-D. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Borussia Dortmund's attack rating (0.98) and VfB Stuttgart's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, VfB Stuttgart's attack versus Borussia Dortmund's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
50%
2.01
25%
3.93
25%
4.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Borussia Dortmund xG
Total xG
2.70
1.07
VfB Stuttgart xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
4.03
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
20%
5.06
Win to Nil
17%
5.88
5%
20.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.8 | 6.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.07 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Borussia Dortmund's recent record stands at 23W 9D 12L from 44 games, a 1.77 PPG return, with D-L-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VfB Stuttgart, meanwhile, have gone 21W 8D 15L across 44 games — 1.61 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Borussia Dortmund on 1.77 PPG, VfB Stuttgart on 1.61. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Borussia Dortmund have managed 14W 4D 3L from 21 games — 2.19 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.77 PPG overall — Borussia Dortmund are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
VfB Stuttgart's away record stands at 9W 6D 6L across 21 trips, a 1.57 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Borussia Dortmund are averaging 1.98 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 1.84 scored and 1.48 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Dortmund have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; VfB Stuttgart in 64%.
Last 44 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
Borussia Dortmund have gone 23W 9D 12L in their last 44 games (1.77 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 21W 8D 15L in their last 44 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Dortmund at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
Borussia Dortmund's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Dortmund at home: 2.19 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Oct 2022, when Borussia Dortmund won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Dortmund's record when hosting VfB Stuttgart specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Borussia Dortmund
2
Draws
4
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Dortmund have won 4, VfB Stuttgart have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 0-2 Borussia Dortmund.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Dortmund 57%, VfB Stuttgart 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Borussia Dortmund and 71% for VfB Stuttgart. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Dortmund keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Dortmund home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Dortmund play VfB Stuttgart?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Borussia Dortmund's games and 62% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Dortmund vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Borussia Dortmund's matches and 71% of VfB Stuttgart's.
Do Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
Borussia Dortmund have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund and VfB Stuttgart finished level at 3-3 at Signal Iduna Park, Regular Season - 11, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Dortmund 1.62 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.07 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Borussia Dortmund beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. VfB Stuttgart outscored their 1.07 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Dortmund attack 0.98 / defence 0.69 against VfB Stuttgart attack 1.07 / defence 1.01, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Dortmund 50% | Draw 25% | VfB Stuttgart 25%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Dortmund 61%, VfB Stuttgart 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Borussia Dortmund 1.77 PPG, VfB Stuttgart 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.