Borussia Dortmund 4-1 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Borussia Dortmund (72%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Borussia Dortmund face Hertha BSC.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Borussia Dortmund and Hertha BSC meet at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 19 February 2023 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Borussia Dortmund's overall Bundesliga record this term: 8W 0D 2L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Borussia Dortmund have posted 8W 1D 1L at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK.
Hertha BSC have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hertha BSC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Hertha BSC have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Borussia Dortmund's 2.40 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Hertha BSC's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Borussia Dortmund, who have won 4 of the last 5 meetings against Hertha BSC — a 0D 1W return for the visitors.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.6 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2022, ended 1–0 with Borussia Dortmund winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Borussia Dortmund and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.6 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Borussia Dortmund — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Hertha BSC — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Dortmund 65% and Hertha BSC 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Borussia Dortmund 70% | Hertha BSC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Dortmund 2.81 xG and Hertha BSC 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.371 / defence 1.015 | Hertha BSC attack 0.802 / defence 1.114. League average goals — home 1.843 / away 1.309. Borussia Dortmund carry an above-average attack strength of 1.371 — their λ of 2.81 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 54 Borussia Dortmund games / 54 Hertha BSC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 72% | Draw 17% | Hertha BSC 10%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Dortmund 1.39 | Draw 5.88 | Hertha BSC 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Dortmund (72%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.88. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.88 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.81 / 1.07) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund as the most likely outcome at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 74% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Borussia Dortmund 50% | Hertha BSC 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Dortmund vs Hertha BSC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: SIGNAL IDUNA PARK • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Feb 2023, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 72% | Draw 17% | Hertha BSC 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 63% | xG Borussia Dortmund 2.81 / Hertha BSC 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.371 / def 1.015 | Hertha BSC attack 0.802 / def 1.114 | league avg home 1.843 / away 1.309 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.81
Borussia Dortmund xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Hertha BSC xG
63%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Dortmund vs Hertha BSC kick off?
Borussia Dortmund vs Hertha BSC kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 19 February 2023 at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Dortmund vs Hertha BSC?
Borussia Dortmund 4 - 1 Hertha BSC.
Where is Borussia Dortmund vs Hertha BSC being played?
The match is being played at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK.
What competition is Borussia Dortmund vs Hertha BSC part of?
Borussia Dortmund vs Hertha BSC is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Dortmund vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Dortmund a 72% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 10% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Borussia Dortmund and Hertha BSC will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Dortmund vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and Hertha BSC?
Record (5 meetings): Borussia Dortmund 4W | Draws 0 | Hertha BSC 1W.
What form are Borussia Dortmund and Hertha BSC in?
Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Hertha BSC (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Borussia Dortmund's attacking strength (1.37x league average) is weighed against Hertha BSC's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.81. Flip it around — Hertha BSC's attack (0.80x) against Borussia Dortmund's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.7%. Close behind: 3-1 (8.2%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
72%
1.38
17%
5.80
10%
9.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.2%
Home win
3 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.81
Borussia Dortmund xG
Total xG
3.88
1.07
Hertha BSC xG
1.38
72%
Home win
5.80
17%
Draw
9.65
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
6%
16.69
Win to Nil
25%
4.01
1%
161.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 5.8 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.7 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.7 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Dortmund vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.7%.
How many goals are Borussia Dortmund and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 2.81 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.07 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 3.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Dortmund vs Hertha BSC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Borussia Dortmund's recent record stands at 35W 4D 15L from 54 games, a 2.02 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hertha BSC, meanwhile, have gone 14W 11D 29L across 54 games — 0.98 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Hertha BSC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Borussia Dortmund by 1.04 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hertha BSC heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Borussia Dortmund have managed 20W 1D 5L from 26 games — 2.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hertha BSC's away record stands at 5W 4D 17L across 26 trips, a 0.73 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Borussia Dortmund are averaging 2.31 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 1.13 scored and 1.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Dortmund have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
Hertha BSC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Dortmund and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
Borussia Dortmund have gone 35W 4D 15L in their last 54 games (2.02 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 14W 11D 29L in their last 54 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Dortmund at home or Hertha BSC away?
Borussia Dortmund's home record (2.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Dortmund at home: 2.35 PPG; Hertha BSC away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 February 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Borussia Dortmund have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Borussia Dortmund won 2-5 on 21 Nov 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Borussia Dortmund have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Hertha BSC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Borussia Dortmund
0
Draws
1
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and Hertha BSC?
From 6 meetings on record, Borussia Dortmund have won 5, Hertha BSC have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Dortmund and Hertha BSC last play each other?
They last met on 19 February 2023, when Borussia Dortmund 4-1 Hertha BSC.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Dortmund and Hertha BSC?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Dortmund 65%, Hertha BSC 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 81% for Borussia Dortmund and 58% for Hertha BSC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Dortmund keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Hertha BSC in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Dortmund home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Dortmund play Hertha BSC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Borussia Dortmund's games and 46% of Hertha BSC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Dortmund vs Hertha BSC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 81% of Borussia Dortmund's matches and 58% of Hertha BSC's.
Do Borussia Dortmund and Hertha BSC tend to score early?
Borussia Dortmund have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Hertha BSC in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Borussia Dortmund run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Hertha BSC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat Hertha BSC 4-1 at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK, Regular Season - 21, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Dortmund 2.81 xG and Hertha BSC 1.07 xG, a combined 3.88. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Borussia Dortmund beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Dortmund attack 1.37 / defence 1.01 against Hertha BSC attack 0.80 / defence 1.11, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Dortmund 72% | Draw 17% | Hertha BSC 10%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 72%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Dortmund 70%, Hertha BSC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Hertha BSC's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 0.98. Form held, and they took the win. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.92 average — above their attacking norm. Hertha BSC (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.