Borussia Dortmund 2-1 Hertha BSC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund at 67% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Borussia Dortmund vs Hertha BSC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Borussia Dortmund and Hertha BSC meet at Signal-Iduna-Park in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 14 May 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
Borussia Dortmund's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Borussia Dortmund have posted 6W 0D 4L at Signal-Iduna-Park — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Hertha BSC have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Hertha BSC have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Borussia Dortmund's 1.70 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Hertha BSC's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Borussia Dortmund lead 2W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.7 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 Dec 2021, ended 2–3 with Hertha BSC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Borussia Dortmund — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 85% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Hertha BSC — key trading statistics (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Dortmund 70% and Hertha BSC 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Borussia Dortmund 75% | Hertha BSC 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Dortmund 2.68 xG and Hertha BSC 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.545 / defence 1.273 | Hertha BSC attack 0.694 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.646 / away 1.414. Borussia Dortmund carry an above-average attack strength of 1.545 — their λ of 2.68 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 67 Borussia Dortmund games / 67 Hertha BSC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 67% | Draw 18% | Hertha BSC 15%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Dortmund 1.49 | Draw 5.56 | Hertha BSC 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Dortmund (67%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.93. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.93 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.68 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund as the most likely outcome at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 75% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Dortmund 70% | Hertha BSC 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Dortmund vs Hertha BSC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Signal-Iduna-Park • Kick-off: Saturday 14 May 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 67% | Draw 18% | Hertha BSC 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 67% | xG Borussia Dortmund 2.68 / Hertha BSC 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.545 / def 1.273 | Hertha BSC attack 0.694 / def 1.052 | league avg home 1.646 / away 1.414 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.68
Borussia Dortmund xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Hertha BSC xG
67%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Dortmund vs Hertha BSC kick off?
Borussia Dortmund vs Hertha BSC kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 14 May 2022 at Signal-Iduna-Park.
What was the final score in Borussia Dortmund vs Hertha BSC?
Borussia Dortmund 2 - 1 Hertha BSC.
Where is Borussia Dortmund vs Hertha BSC being played?
The match is being played at Signal-Iduna-Park.
What competition is Borussia Dortmund vs Hertha BSC part of?
Borussia Dortmund vs Hertha BSC is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Dortmund vs Hertha BSC?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Dortmund a 67% chance of winning, Hertha BSC a 15% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs Hertha BSC?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Borussia Dortmund and Hertha BSC will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Dortmund vs Hertha BSC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and Hertha BSC?
Record (3 meetings): Borussia Dortmund 2W | Draws 0 | Hertha BSC 1W.
What form are Borussia Dortmund and Hertha BSC in?
Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Hertha BSC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Borussia Dortmund's attacking strength (1.54x league average) is weighed against Hertha BSC's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.68. Flip it around — Hertha BSC's attack (0.69x) against Borussia Dortmund's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.8%. Close behind: 3-1 (7.9%), 1-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
67%
1.49
18%
5.49
15%
6.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.9%
Home win
2 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.68
Borussia Dortmund xG
Total xG
3.93
1.25
Hertha BSC xG
1.49
67%
Home win
5.49
18%
Draw
6.72
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.05
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
7%
14.53
Win to Nil
19%
5.21
1%
97.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 7.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Dortmund vs Hertha BSC?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.8%.
How many goals are Borussia Dortmund and Hertha BSC expected to score?
The model projects 2.68 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.25 for Hertha BSC, a combined total of 3.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Dortmund vs Hertha BSC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Borussia Dortmund's recent record stands at 41W 7D 19L from 67 games, a 1.94 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-W in the last five.
Hertha BSC, meanwhile, have gone 17W 17D 33L across 67 games — 1.01 PPG, with L-W-W-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Borussia Dortmund by 0.93 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hertha BSC heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Borussia Dortmund have managed 23W 2D 8L from 33 games — 2.15 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Hertha BSC's away record stands at 6W 9D 18L across 33 trips, a 0.82 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Borussia Dortmund are averaging 2.36 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Hertha BSC are on 1.15 scored and 1.81 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Dortmund have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 67 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Dortmund
Current Season
Hertha BSC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Dortmund and Hertha BSC in coming into this match?
Borussia Dortmund have gone 41W 7D 19L in their last 67 games (1.94 PPG), while Hertha BSC have gone 17W 17D 33L in their last 67 (1.01 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Dortmund at home or Hertha BSC away?
Borussia Dortmund's home record (2.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Dortmund at home: 2.15 PPG; Hertha BSC away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 February 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Borussia Dortmund have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Borussia Dortmund won 2-5 on 21 Nov 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Borussia Dortmund have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Hertha BSC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Borussia Dortmund
0
Draws
1
Hertha BSC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and Hertha BSC?
From 6 meetings on record, Borussia Dortmund have won 5, Hertha BSC have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Dortmund and Hertha BSC last play each other?
They last met on 19 February 2023, when Borussia Dortmund 4-1 Hertha BSC.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Dortmund and Hertha BSC?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Hertha BSC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Dortmund 67%, Hertha BSC 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 82% for Borussia Dortmund and 54% for Hertha BSC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Dortmund keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Hertha BSC in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Dortmund home games / Hertha BSC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Dortmund play Hertha BSC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Borussia Dortmund's games and 54% of Hertha BSC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Dortmund vs Hertha BSC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 82% of Borussia Dortmund's matches and 54% of Hertha BSC's.
Do Borussia Dortmund and Hertha BSC tend to score early?
Borussia Dortmund have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Hertha BSC in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Borussia Dortmund edge out Hertha BSC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat Hertha BSC 2-1 at Signal-Iduna-Park, Regular Season - 34, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Dortmund 2.68 xG and Hertha BSC 1.25 xG, a combined 3.93. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Dortmund attack 1.54 / defence 1.27 against Hertha BSC attack 0.69 / defence 1.05, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Dortmund 67% | Draw 18% | Hertha BSC 15%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 67%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Dortmund 75%, Hertha BSC 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Hertha BSC's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 1.01. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.