Borussia Dortmund 5-2 Borussia Mönchengladbach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund at 86% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Borussia Dortmund vs Borussia Mönchengladbach encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Borussia Dortmund and Borussia Mönchengladbach meet at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 May 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Borussia Dortmund's overall Bundesliga record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Borussia Dortmund's home record at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK: 10W 0D 0L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 4.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Borussia Dortmund are significantly better at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK than their overall form suggests.
Borussia Mönchengladbach have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Borussia Mönchengladbach have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Borussia Dortmund's 2.10 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Borussia Mönchengladbach's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Borussia Dortmund have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Borussia Dortmund, 2 for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 11 Nov 2022, ended 2–4 with Borussia Mönchengladbach winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Borussia Dortmund — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 84% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Borussia Mönchengladbach — key trading statistics (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Dortmund 66% and Borussia Mönchengladbach 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Borussia Dortmund 72% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Dortmund 3.51 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.775 / defence 0.781 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.811 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.829 / away 1.244. Borussia Dortmund carry an above-average attack strength of 1.775 — their λ of 3.51 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Borussia Dortmund's defence rating of 0.781 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 65 Borussia Dortmund games / 65 Borussia Mönchengladbach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 86% | Draw 10% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 4%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Dortmund 1.16 | Draw 10.00 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 25.00. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Dortmund (86%) — a 82pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 80% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 4.30. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 80% — a total xG of 4.30 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Borussia Dortmund are the pick at 86% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.30 combined xG gives a 80% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Dortmund 60% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Dortmund vs Borussia Mönchengladbach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: SIGNAL IDUNA PARK • Kick-off: Saturday 13 May 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 86% | Draw 10% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 4% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 80% | BTTS 54% | xG Borussia Dortmund 3.51 / Borussia Mönchengladbach 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.775 / def 0.781 | Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.811 / def 1.081 | league avg home 1.829 / away 1.244 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (86%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.51
Borussia Dortmund xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
54%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Dortmund vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kick off?
Borussia Dortmund vs Borussia Mönchengladbach kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 13 May 2023 at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK.
What was the final score in Borussia Dortmund vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Borussia Dortmund 5 - 2 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
Where is Borussia Dortmund vs Borussia Mönchengladbach being played?
The match is being played at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK.
What competition is Borussia Dortmund vs Borussia Mönchengladbach part of?
Borussia Dortmund vs Borussia Mönchengladbach is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Dortmund vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Dortmund a 86% chance of winning, Borussia Mönchengladbach a 4% chance, and a 10% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Borussia Dortmund and Borussia Mönchengladbach will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Dortmund vs Borussia Mönchengladbach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 80%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Record (3 meetings): Borussia Dortmund 1W | Draws 0 | Borussia Mönchengladbach 2W.
What form are Borussia Dortmund and Borussia Mönchengladbach in?
Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Borussia Mönchengladbach (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Borussia Dortmund's attack rating (1.77) and Borussia Mönchengladbach's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 3.51 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack (0.81x) against Borussia Dortmund's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 3-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.8%. Close behind: 4-0 (8.6%), 2-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
86%
1.16
10%
9.90
4%
25.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
4 – 0
8.6%
Home win
2 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.51
Borussia Dortmund xG
Total xG
4.30
0.79
Borussia Mönchengladbach xG
1.16
86%
Home win
9.90
10%
Draw
25.45
4%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
80%
Over 2.5
1.25
20%
Under 2.5
5.00
62%
Over 3.5
1.61
38%
Under 3.5
2.63
43%
Over 4.5
2.33
57%
Under 4.5
1.75
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
3%
33.48
Win to Nil
39%
2.56
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 1 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 8.4 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.8 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 8.6 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 6.0 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Dortmund vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Borussia Dortmund and Borussia Mönchengladbach expected to score?
The model projects 3.51 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund and 0.79 for Borussia Mönchengladbach, a combined total of 4.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Dortmund vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 86%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Borussia Dortmund come into this having played 65 games, going 42W 7D 16L for 2.05 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-W.
On the other side, Borussia Mönchengladbach sit at 1.29 PPG from 65 outings (22W 18D 25L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-W across their last five.
Borussia Dortmund carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.76 PPG clear of Borussia Mönchengladbach — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Borussia Dortmund's home form reads 26W 1D 5L across 32 games on their own ground, a 2.47 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.05 PPG overall — Borussia Dortmund are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Borussia Mönchengladbach have taken 0.81 points per game from 32 outings (5W 11D 16L). That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Borussia Mönchengladbach's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Borussia Dortmund are averaging 2.43 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Borussia Mönchengladbach are on 1.54 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Dortmund have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; Borussia Mönchengladbach in 65%.
Last 65 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Dortmund
Current Season
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Dortmund and Borussia Mönchengladbach in coming into this match?
Borussia Dortmund have gone 42W 7D 16L in their last 65 games (2.05 PPG), while Borussia Mönchengladbach have gone 22W 18D 25L in their last 65 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Dortmund at home or Borussia Mönchengladbach away?
Borussia Dortmund's home record (2.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Dortmund at home: 2.47 PPG; Borussia Mönchengladbach away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Borussia Dortmund won 6-0 on 20 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Borussia Dortmund have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Borussia Mönchengladbach — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Borussia Dortmund
1
Draws
3
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Dortmund have won 6, Borussia Mönchengladbach have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Dortmund and Borussia Mönchengladbach last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Borussia Mönchengladbach 1-0 Borussia Dortmund.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Dortmund and Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Borussia Mönchengladbach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 66% for Borussia Dortmund, 66% for Borussia Mönchengladbach — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 84% for Borussia Dortmund and 59% for Borussia Mönchengladbach. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Dortmund keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Borussia Mönchengladbach in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Dortmund home games / Borussia Mönchengladbach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Dortmund play Borussia Mönchengladbach?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 66% of Borussia Dortmund's games and 66% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Dortmund vs Borussia Mönchengladbach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 84% of Borussia Dortmund's matches and 59% of Borussia Mönchengladbach's.
Do Borussia Dortmund and Borussia Mönchengladbach tend to score early?
Borussia Dortmund have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Borussia Mönchengladbach in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Borussia Dortmund run riot with a 5-2 hammering of Borussia Mönchengladbach.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Borussia Dortmund beat Borussia Mönchengladbach 5-2 at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK, Regular Season - 32, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Dortmund 3.51 xG and Borussia Mönchengladbach 0.79 xG, a combined 4.30. The scoreboard read 5-2 for 7 actual goals. Borussia Dortmund beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Borussia Mönchengladbach outscored their 0.79 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Dortmund attack 1.77 / defence 0.78 against Borussia Mönchengladbach attack 0.81 / defence 1.08, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Dortmund 86% | Draw 10% | Borussia Mönchengladbach 4%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 86%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 80%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 94% and landed. Over 3.5 was 62% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Dortmund 72%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Borussia Mönchengladbach's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Borussia Dortmund arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.29. That form edge translated into the three points. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 3.12 average — above their attacking norm. Borussia Mönchengladbach (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.