Borussia Dortmund 2-5 Bayer Leverkusen – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Borussia Dortmund at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 21 as Borussia Dortmund welcome Bayer Leverkusen to Signal-Iduna-Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 6 February 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Borussia Dortmund have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Borussia Dortmund, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Borussia Dortmund have posted 9W 0D 1L at Signal-Iduna-Park — 2.70 PPG. They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Borussia Dortmund are significantly better at Signal-Iduna-Park than their overall form suggests.
Bayer Leverkusen — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bayer Leverkusen's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Borussia Dortmund at 1.90 PPG versus Bayer Leverkusen's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Borussia Dortmund, 0 for Bayer Leverkusen and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 7.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2021, ended 4–3 with Borussia Dortmund winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Borussia Dortmund in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 92% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
Bayer Leverkusen in-play and half-time data (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Borussia Dortmund 72% and Bayer Leverkusen 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Borussia Dortmund 78% | Bayer Leverkusen 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Borussia Dortmund 2.48 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.442 / defence 0.924 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.242 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.714 / away 1.333. Borussia Dortmund carry an above-average attack strength of 1.442 — their λ of 2.48 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Bayer Leverkusen have an above-average attack strength of 1.242 — the away xG of 1.53 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 54 Borussia Dortmund games / 54 Bayer Leverkusen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 57% | Draw 21% | Bayer Leverkusen 22%. Fair-value odds: Borussia Dortmund 1.75 | Draw 4.76 | Bayer Leverkusen 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Borussia Dortmund (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 4.01. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 4.01 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (2.48 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Borussia Dortmund as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 4.01 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 76% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 4.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 73% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Borussia Dortmund 80% | Bayer Leverkusen 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Signal-Iduna-Park • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Feb 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Borussia Dortmund 57% | Draw 21% | Bayer Leverkusen 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 73% | xG Borussia Dortmund 2.48 / Bayer Leverkusen 1.53 • Poisson strength factors: Borussia Dortmund attack 1.442 / def 0.924 | Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.242 / def 1.004 | league avg home 1.714 / away 1.333 • Poisson stance: Borussia Dortmund (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.48
Borussia Dortmund xG
Expected Goals
1.53
Bayer Leverkusen xG
73%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen kick off?
Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 6 February 2022 at Signal-Iduna-Park.
What was the final score in Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Borussia Dortmund 2 - 5 Bayer Leverkusen.
Where is Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen being played?
The match is being played at Signal-Iduna-Park.
What competition is Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen part of?
Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our statistical model gives Borussia Dortmund a 57% chance of winning, Bayer Leverkusen a 22% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Borussia Dortmund the favourite.
Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen will score (BTTS).
Will Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen?
Record (1 meetings): Borussia Dortmund 1W | Draws 0 | Bayer Leverkusen 0W.
What form are Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen in?
Borussia Dortmund (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Borussia Dortmund's attacking strength (1.44x league average) is weighed against Bayer Leverkusen's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.48. The same calculation in reverse, Bayer Leverkusen's attack versus Borussia Dortmund's defence, projects 1.53 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.8%), 3-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Borussia Dortmund Win
57%
1.75
21%
4.69
22%
4.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.1%
Home win
1 – 1
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.48
Borussia Dortmund xG
Total xG
4.01
1.53
Bayer Leverkusen xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.69
21%
Draw
4.65
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.72
Clean Sheet
22%
4.62
8%
11.97
Win to Nil
12%
8.08
2%
55.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 6.9 | 5.3 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 7.1 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen expected to score?
The model projects 2.48 expected goals for Borussia Dortmund and 1.53 for Bayer Leverkusen, a combined total of 4.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 54 outings, Borussia Dortmund have picked up 1.98 PPG on a 34W 5D 15L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Borussia Dortmund is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bayer Leverkusen's form line: 24W 15D 15L from 54 games, 1.61 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-W. The sample for Bayer Leverkusen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Borussia Dortmund on 1.98 PPG, Bayer Leverkusen on 1.61. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Borussia Dortmund have posted 2.30 PPG from 27 outings (20W 2D 5L).
On the road, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 11W 8D 8L from 27 away games — 1.52 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Borussia Dortmund come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Borussia Dortmund are averaging 2.35 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Bayer Leverkusen are on 1.89 scored and 1.31 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Borussia Dortmund have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games; Bayer Leverkusen in 65%.
Last 54 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Borussia Dortmund
Blended
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen in coming into this match?
Borussia Dortmund have gone 34W 5D 15L in their last 54 games (1.98 PPG), while Bayer Leverkusen have gone 24W 15D 15L in their last 54 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Borussia Dortmund at home or Bayer Leverkusen away?
Borussia Dortmund's home record (2.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Borussia Dortmund at home: 2.30 PPG; Bayer Leverkusen away: 1.52 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Feb 2022, when Bayer Leverkusen won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Borussia Dortmund's record when hosting Bayer Leverkusen specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Borussia Dortmund
2
Draws
3
Bayer Leverkusen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen?
From 10 meetings on record, Borussia Dortmund have won 5, Bayer Leverkusen have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Borussia Dortmund 0-1 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen?
Borussia Dortmund have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Borussia Dortmund are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Borussia Dortmund 67%, Bayer Leverkusen 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 82% for Borussia Dortmund and 56% for Bayer Leverkusen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Borussia Dortmund keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Bayer Leverkusen in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Borussia Dortmund home games / Bayer Leverkusen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Borussia Dortmund play Bayer Leverkusen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Borussia Dortmund's games and 56% of Bayer Leverkusen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Borussia Dortmund vs Bayer Leverkusen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 82% of Borussia Dortmund's matches and 56% of Bayer Leverkusen's.
Do Borussia Dortmund and Bayer Leverkusen tend to score early?
Borussia Dortmund have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Bayer Leverkusen in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Bayer Leverkusen run riot with a 2-5 hammering of Borussia Dortmund.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayer Leverkusen beat Borussia Dortmund 2-5 at Signal-Iduna-Park, Regular Season - 21, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Borussia Dortmund 2.48 xG and Bayer Leverkusen 1.53 xG, a combined 4.01. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Bayer Leverkusen outscored their 1.53 projection by 3.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Borussia Dortmund attack 1.44 / defence 0.92 against Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.24 / defence 1.00, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Borussia Dortmund 57% | Draw 21% | Bayer Leverkusen 22%, with Borussia Dortmund to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Bayer Leverkusen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Borussia Dortmund 78%, Bayer Leverkusen 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Borussia Dortmund's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Borussia Dortmund 1.98 PPG, Bayer Leverkusen 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bayer Leverkusen win broke the near-deadlock. Borussia Dortmund (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.22 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.