Bayern München 1-0 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bayern München (80%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bayern München face Union Berlin.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Union Berlin travel to Fußball Arena München to take on Bayern München. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 24 January 2024, 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Bayern München have gone 8W 0D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Bayern München, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bayern München's home record at Fußball Arena München: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 3.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Fußball Arena München.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Union Berlin stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Union Berlin's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game.
Bayern München carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.40 vs 0.80. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Bayern München: 3 wins from 4 previous clashes against 0 for Union Berlin, with 1 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2023, ended 3–0 with Bayern München winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Bayern München and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Bayern München in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Union Berlin in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bayern München 58% versus Union Berlin 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bayern München 72% | Union Berlin 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bayern München 2.76 xG and Union Berlin 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bayern München attack 1.460 / defence 0.716 | Union Berlin attack 0.711 / defence 1.071. League average goals — home 1.766 / away 1.310. Bayern München carry an above-average attack strength of 1.460 — their λ of 2.76 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Bayern München's defence rating of 0.716 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 51 Bayern München games / 50 Union Berlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bayern München 80% | Draw 14% | Union Berlin 6%. Fair-value odds: Bayern München 1.25 | Draw 7.14 | Union Berlin 16.67. The model has a clear lean to Bayern München (80%) — a 74pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 3.43. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.43 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bayern München as the most likely outcome at 80% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.43 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bayern München 40% | Union Berlin 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bayern München vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Fußball Arena München • Kick-off: Wednesday 24 Jan 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bayern München 80% | Draw 14% | Union Berlin 6% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 46% | xG Bayern München 2.76 / Union Berlin 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Bayern München attack 1.460 / def 0.716 | Union Berlin attack 0.711 / def 1.071 | league avg home 1.766 / away 1.310 • Poisson stance: Bayern München (80%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.76
Bayern München xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Union Berlin xG
46%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bayern München vs Union Berlin kick off?
Bayern München vs Union Berlin kicked off at 19:30 on Wednesday 24 January 2024 at Fußball Arena München.
What was the final score in Bayern München vs Union Berlin?
Bayern München 1 - 0 Union Berlin.
Where is Bayern München vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at Fußball Arena München.
What competition is Bayern München vs Union Berlin part of?
Bayern München vs Union Berlin is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Bayern München vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives Bayern München a 80% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 6% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Bayern München the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bayern München vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Bayern München and Union Berlin will score (BTTS).
Will Bayern München vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bayern München and Union Berlin?
Record (4 meetings): Bayern München 3W | Draws 1 | Union Berlin 0W.
What form are Bayern München and Union Berlin in?
Bayern München (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Union Berlin (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bayern München's attack at 1.46x the league average against Union Berlin's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 2.76 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Union Berlin's attack versus Bayern München's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (11.4%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayern München Win
80%
1.24
14%
7.34
6%
16.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
11.4%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.76
Bayern München xG
Total xG
3.43
0.67
Union Berlin xG
1.24
80%
Home win
7.34
14%
Draw
16.84
6%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
51%
1.95
6%
15.82
Win to Nil
41%
2.42
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 9.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 8.3 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 11.4 | 7.6 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 7.9 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bayern München vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Bayern München and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 2.76 expected goals for Bayern München and 0.67 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 3.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Bayern München vs Union Berlin?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 80%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bayern München come into this having played 50 games, going 33W 10D 7L for 2.18 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-L. The sample for Bayern München is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Union Berlin sit at 1.52 PPG from 50 outings (22W 10D 18L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bayern München carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Union Berlin — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bayern München's home form reads 17W 6D 2L across 25 games on their own ground, a 2.28 PPG return.
Away from home, Union Berlin have taken 1.08 points per game from 25 outings (8W 3D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.52 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Union Berlin's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayern München come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bayern München are averaging 2.76 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 1.36 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: Bayern München have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 50 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bayern München
Blended
Union Berlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bayern München and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
Bayern München have gone 33W 10D 7L in their last 50 games (2.18 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 22W 10D 18L in their last 50 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bayern München at home or Union Berlin away?
Bayern München's home record (2.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bayern München at home: 2.28 PPG; Union Berlin away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Bayern München or Union Berlin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bayern München have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Union Berlin in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bayern München and Union Berlin runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Mar 2022, when Bayern München won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bayern München's record when hosting Union Berlin specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Bayern München
3
Draws
0
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bayern München and Union Berlin?
From 10 meetings on record, Bayern München have won 7, Union Berlin have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bayern München and Union Berlin last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Bayern München 4-0 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between Bayern München and Union Berlin?
Bayern München have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bayern München are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 76% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bayern München 52%, Union Berlin 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Bayern München and 56% for Union Berlin. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bayern München keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Union Berlin in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bayern München home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bayern München play Union Berlin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Bayern München's recent matches and 44% of Union Berlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bayern München vs Union Berlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Bayern München's matches and 56% of Union Berlin's.
Do Bayern München and Union Berlin tend to score early?
Bayern München have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Union Berlin in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bayern München edge out Union Berlin 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayern München beat Union Berlin 1-0 at Fußball Arena München, Regular Season - 13, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayern München 2.76 xG and Union Berlin 0.67 xG, a combined 3.43. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bayern München fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayern München attack 1.46 / defence 0.72 against Union Berlin attack 0.71 / defence 1.07, drawn from 51/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bayern München 80% | Draw 14% | Union Berlin 6%, with Bayern München to win its most likely call at 80%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayern München 72%, Union Berlin 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bayern München's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Union Berlin's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayern München arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 1.52. That form edge translated into the three points. Bayern München (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 3.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Union Berlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.