Bayern München 2-1 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bayern München at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bayern München vs SC Freiburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees SC Freiburg travel to Allianz Arena to take on Bayern München. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 November 2021, 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Bayern München — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 2.50 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 3.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bayern München, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bayern München at Allianz Arena this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 3.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Arena.
Looking at all fixtures this season, SC Freiburg stand at 6W 4D 0L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SC Freiburg have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bayern München 2.50 PPG, SC Freiburg 2.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
Bayern München in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 66%.
SC Freiburg in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bayern München 73% and SC Freiburg 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bayern München 82% | SC Freiburg 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bayern München 2.08 xG and SC Freiburg 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bayern München attack 1.637 / defence 0.878 | SC Freiburg attack 1.046 / defence 0.741. League average goals — home 1.711 / away 1.265. Bayern München carry an above-average attack strength of 1.637 — their λ of 2.08 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. SC Freiburg's defence strength of 0.741 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 44 Bayern München games / 44 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bayern München 56% | Draw 26% | SC Freiburg 18%. Fair-value odds: Bayern München 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | SC Freiburg 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Bayern München (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.08 / 1.16) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bayern München at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.24 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates are neutral: Bayern München 40% | SC Freiburg 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bayern München vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Allianz Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bayern München 56% | Draw 26% | SC Freiburg 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 63% | xG Bayern München 2.08 / SC Freiburg 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Bayern München attack 1.637 / def 0.878 | SC Freiburg attack 1.046 / def 0.741 | league avg home 1.711 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: Bayern München (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
Bayern München xG
Expected Goals
1.16
SC Freiburg xG
63%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bayern München vs SC Freiburg kick off?
Bayern München vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at Allianz Arena.
What was the final score in Bayern München vs SC Freiburg?
Bayern München 2 - 1 SC Freiburg.
Where is Bayern München vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Arena.
What competition is Bayern München vs SC Freiburg part of?
Bayern München vs SC Freiburg is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Bayern München vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives Bayern München a 56% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 18% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bayern München the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bayern München vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Bayern München and SC Freiburg will score (BTTS).
Will Bayern München vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bayern München and SC Freiburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bayern München and SC Freiburg in?
Bayern München (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 3.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. SC Freiburg (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Bayern München's attack rating (1.64) and SC Freiburg's defence rating (0.74), the model arrives at 2.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SC Freiburg's attack versus Bayern München's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayern München Win
56%
1.79
26%
3.83
18%
5.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
2 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
Bayern München xG
Total xG
3.24
1.16
SC Freiburg xG
1.79
56%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
5.52
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.68
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
13%
7.96
Win to Nil
17%
5.72
2%
43.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bayern München vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Bayern München and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for Bayern München and 1.16 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Bayern München vs SC Freiburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 44 outings, Bayern München have picked up 2.34 PPG on a 32W 7D 5L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Bayern München is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Freiburg's form line: 18W 13D 13L from 44 games, 1.52 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bayern München are the form team by 0.82 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SC Freiburg.
Venue Form
On home soil, Bayern München have posted 2.50 PPG from 22 outings (17W 4D 1L).
On the road, SC Freiburg have gone 8W 5D 9L from 22 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayern München come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bayern München are averaging 3.11 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.57 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bayern München have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bayern München
Blended
SC Freiburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bayern München and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
Bayern München have gone 32W 7D 5L in their last 44 games (2.34 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 18W 13D 13L in their last 44 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bayern München at home or SC Freiburg away?
Bayern München's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bayern München at home: 2.50 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bayern München have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Oct 2022, when Bayern München won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bayern München's record when hosting SC Freiburg specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Bayern München
1
Draws
0
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bayern München and SC Freiburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Bayern München have won 9, SC Freiburg have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bayern München and SC Freiburg last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when SC Freiburg 2-3 Bayern München.
Who has won more matches between Bayern München and SC Freiburg?
Bayern München have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bayern München are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
SC Freiburg see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bayern München 64%, SC Freiburg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for Bayern München and 59% for SC Freiburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 73% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bayern München keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; SC Freiburg in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bayern München home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bayern München play SC Freiburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Bayern München's games and 50% of SC Freiburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bayern München vs SC Freiburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of Bayern München's matches and 59% of SC Freiburg's.
Do Bayern München and SC Freiburg tend to score early?
Bayern München have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, SC Freiburg in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bayern München edge out SC Freiburg 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayern München beat SC Freiburg 2-1 at Allianz Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayern München 2.08 xG and SC Freiburg 1.16 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayern München attack 1.64 / defence 0.88 against SC Freiburg attack 1.05 / defence 0.74, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bayern München 56% | Draw 26% | SC Freiburg 18%, with Bayern München to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayern München 82%, SC Freiburg 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bayern München's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.
SC Freiburg's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayern München arrived the stronger side — 2.34 PPG against 1.52. That form edge translated into the three points. Bayern München (home/away splits) managed 2 against a 3.82 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.