Bayer Leverkusen 0-1 VfL Wolfsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bayer Leverkusen at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bayer Leverkusen vs VfL Wolfsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees VfL Wolfsburg travel to BayArena to take on Bayer Leverkusen. The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 January 2021, 14:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bayer Leverkusen stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bayer Leverkusen's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 1L across 8 games at BayArena this term (1.88 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 88% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
VfL Wolfsburg — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for VfL Wolfsburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfL Wolfsburg away from home this season: 2W 5D 2L from 9 away games — 1.22 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.22 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bayer Leverkusen 1.70 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Bayer Leverkusen register both teams scoring in 88% of relevant matches, VfL Wolfsburg in 67% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Bayer Leverkusen in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
VfL Wolfsburg in-play tendencies (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bayer Leverkusen 65% and VfL Wolfsburg 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bayer Leverkusen 59% | VfL Wolfsburg 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bayer Leverkusen 1.50 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.153 / defence 1.029 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.816 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.197 / away 1.444. Data: 17 Bayer Leverkusen games / 17 VfL Wolfsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 42% | Draw 28% | VfL Wolfsburg 29%. Fair-value odds: Bayer Leverkusen 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | VfL Wolfsburg 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bayer Leverkusen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bayer Leverkusen 88% | VfL Wolfsburg 67% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bayer Leverkusen vs VfL Wolfsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: BayArena • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Jan 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 42% | Draw 28% | VfL Wolfsburg 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Bayer Leverkusen 1.50 / VfL Wolfsburg 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.153 / def 1.029 | VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.816 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.197 / away 1.444 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Expected Goals
1.21
VfL Wolfsburg xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bayer Leverkusen vs VfL Wolfsburg kick off?
Bayer Leverkusen vs VfL Wolfsburg kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 23 January 2021 at BayArena.
What was the final score in Bayer Leverkusen vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Bayer Leverkusen 0 - 1 VfL Wolfsburg.
Where is Bayer Leverkusen vs VfL Wolfsburg being played?
The match is being played at BayArena.
What competition is Bayer Leverkusen vs VfL Wolfsburg part of?
Bayer Leverkusen vs VfL Wolfsburg is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Bayer Leverkusen vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our statistical model gives Bayer Leverkusen a 42% chance of winning, VfL Wolfsburg a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bayer Leverkusen vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Bayer Leverkusen and VfL Wolfsburg will score (BTTS).
Will Bayer Leverkusen vs VfL Wolfsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and VfL Wolfsburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and VfL Wolfsburg in?
Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. VfL Wolfsburg (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bayer Leverkusen's attack rating (1.15) and VfL Wolfsburg's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, VfL Wolfsburg's attack versus Bayer Leverkusen's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
42%
2.37
28%
3.51
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Total xG
2.71
1.21
VfL Wolfsburg xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
22%
4.47
Win to Nil
13%
7.96
7%
15.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.1 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bayer Leverkusen vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Bayer Leverkusen and VfL Wolfsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.21 for VfL Wolfsburg, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Bayer Leverkusen vs VfL Wolfsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bayer Leverkusen come into this having played 17 games, going 9W 5D 3L for 1.88 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-W. The sample for Bayer Leverkusen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, VfL Wolfsburg sit at 1.71 PPG from 17 outings (7W 8D 2L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for VfL Wolfsburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bayer Leverkusen on 1.88 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bayer Leverkusen's home form reads 4W 3D 1L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.88 PPG return.
Away from home, VfL Wolfsburg have taken 1.25 points per game from 8 outings (2W 4D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.71 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of VfL Wolfsburg's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayer Leverkusen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bayer Leverkusen are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; VfL Wolfsburg are on 1.53 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bayer Leverkusen have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; VfL Wolfsburg in 65%.
Last 17 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
VfL Wolfsburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and VfL Wolfsburg in coming into this match?
Bayer Leverkusen have gone 9W 5D 3L in their last 17 games (1.88 PPG), while VfL Wolfsburg have gone 7W 8D 2L in their last 17 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bayer Leverkusen at home or VfL Wolfsburg away?
Bayer Leverkusen's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bayer Leverkusen at home: 1.88 PPG; VfL Wolfsburg away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bayer Leverkusen and VfL Wolfsburg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bayer Leverkusen have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Apr 2026, when Bayer Leverkusen won 6-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bayer Leverkusen's record when hosting VfL Wolfsburg specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Bayer Leverkusen
3
Draws
1
VfL Wolfsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and VfL Wolfsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Bayer Leverkusen have won 6, VfL Wolfsburg have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bayer Leverkusen and VfL Wolfsburg last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Bayer Leverkusen 6-3 VfL Wolfsburg.
Who has won more matches between Bayer Leverkusen and VfL Wolfsburg?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
VfL Wolfsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Bayer Leverkusen at 88%, VfL Wolfsburg at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Bayer Leverkusen) and 38% (VfL Wolfsburg).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bayer Leverkusen home games / VfL Wolfsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bayer Leverkusen play VfL Wolfsburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 88% of Bayer Leverkusen's games and 62% of VfL Wolfsburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bayer Leverkusen vs VfL Wolfsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Bayer Leverkusen's recent games and 38% of VfL Wolfsburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bayer Leverkusen and VfL Wolfsburg tend to score early?
Bayer Leverkusen have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, VfL Wolfsburg in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as VfL Wolfsburg defy the odds to beat Bayer Leverkusen 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfL Wolfsburg beat Bayer Leverkusen 0-1 at BayArena, Regular Season - 18, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayer Leverkusen 1.50 xG and VfL Wolfsburg 1.21 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bayer Leverkusen fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.15 / defence 1.03 against VfL Wolfsburg attack 0.82 / defence 1.08, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bayer Leverkusen 42% | Draw 28% | VfL Wolfsburg 29%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual VfL Wolfsburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayer Leverkusen 59%, VfL Wolfsburg 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
VfL Wolfsburg's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bayer Leverkusen 1.88 PPG, VfL Wolfsburg 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VfL Wolfsburg win broke the near-deadlock. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. VfL Wolfsburg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.