Bayer Leverkusen 1-0 VfL Bochum – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bayer Leverkusen at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bayer Leverkusen vs VfL Bochum fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
VfL Bochum make the trip to BayArena to face Bayer Leverkusen in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12. The match kicks off on Saturday 20 November 2021 at 14:30 UTC.
Current Form
Bayer Leverkusen's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bayer Leverkusen's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at BayArena this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
VfL Bochum have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for VfL Bochum, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfL Bochum away from home this season: 1W 0D 5L from 6 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Bayer Leverkusen — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 64%.
VfL Bochum — key trading statistics (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bayer Leverkusen 64% versus VfL Bochum 27%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bayer Leverkusen 64% | VfL Bochum 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bayer Leverkusen 2.13 xG and VfL Bochum 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bayer Leverkusen attack 0.991 / defence 1.272 | VfL Bochum attack 0.673 / defence 1.270. League average goals — home 1.694 / away 1.217. VfL Bochum bring a strong defensive rating of 1.270 — this is suppressing Bayer Leverkusen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Bayer Leverkusen games / 11 VfL Bochum games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 60% | Draw 24% | VfL Bochum 15%. Fair-value odds: Bayer Leverkusen 1.67 | Draw 4.17 | VfL Bochum 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Bayer Leverkusen (60%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Bayer Leverkusen 60% | VfL Bochum 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bayer Leverkusen vs VfL Bochum | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: BayArena • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Nov 2021, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 60% | Draw 24% | VfL Bochum 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 59% | xG Bayer Leverkusen 2.13 / VfL Bochum 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Bayer Leverkusen attack 0.991 / def 1.272 | VfL Bochum attack 0.673 / def 1.270 | league avg home 1.694 / away 1.217 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.13
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Expected Goals
1.04
VfL Bochum xG
59%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bayer Leverkusen vs VfL Bochum kick off?
Bayer Leverkusen vs VfL Bochum kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 20 November 2021 at BayArena.
What was the final score in Bayer Leverkusen vs VfL Bochum?
Bayer Leverkusen 1 - 0 VfL Bochum.
Where is Bayer Leverkusen vs VfL Bochum being played?
The match is being played at BayArena.
What competition is Bayer Leverkusen vs VfL Bochum part of?
Bayer Leverkusen vs VfL Bochum is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Bayer Leverkusen vs VfL Bochum?
Our statistical model gives Bayer Leverkusen a 60% chance of winning, VfL Bochum a 15% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bayer Leverkusen vs VfL Bochum?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Bayer Leverkusen and VfL Bochum will score (BTTS).
Will Bayer Leverkusen vs VfL Bochum have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and VfL Bochum?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and VfL Bochum in?
Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. VfL Bochum (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bayer Leverkusen's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against VfL Bochum's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.13. Flip it around — VfL Bochum's attack (0.67x) against Bayer Leverkusen's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 45/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
60%
1.66
24%
4.12
15%
6.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.13
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Total xG
3.17
1.04
VfL Bochum xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
6.46
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
12%
8.43
Win to Nil
21%
4.70
2%
54.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.9 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bayer Leverkusen vs VfL Bochum?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Bayer Leverkusen and VfL Bochum expected to score?
The model projects 2.13 expected goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.04 for VfL Bochum, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Bayer Leverkusen vs VfL Bochum?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bayer Leverkusen come into this having played 11 games, going 5W 3D 3L for 1.64 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-D. The sample for Bayer Leverkusen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, VfL Bochum sit at 1.18 PPG from 11 outings (4W 1D 6L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for VfL Bochum is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bayer Leverkusen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of VfL Bochum — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Bayer Leverkusen's home form reads 2W 0D 3L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.64 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, VfL Bochum have taken 0.60 points per game from 5 outings (1W 0D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.18 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of VfL Bochum's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayer Leverkusen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bayer Leverkusen are averaging 2.18 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; VfL Bochum are on 0.91 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bayer Leverkusen have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; VfL Bochum in 27%.
Defensively: VfL Bochum in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
VfL Bochum
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and VfL Bochum in coming into this match?
Bayer Leverkusen have gone 5W 3D 3L in their last 11 games (1.64 PPG), while VfL Bochum have gone 4W 1D 6L in their last 11 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bayer Leverkusen at home or VfL Bochum away?
Bayer Leverkusen's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bayer Leverkusen at home: 1.20 PPG; VfL Bochum away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Bayer Leverkusen or VfL Bochum been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bayer Leverkusen have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, VfL Bochum in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bayer Leverkusen won 0-5 on 12 May 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against VfL Bochum — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Bayer Leverkusen
2
Draws
1
VfL Bochum
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and VfL Bochum?
From 8 meetings on record, Bayer Leverkusen have won 5, VfL Bochum have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bayer Leverkusen and VfL Bochum last play each other?
They last met on 28 March 2025, when Bayer Leverkusen 3-1 VfL Bochum.
Who has won more matches between Bayer Leverkusen and VfL Bochum?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
VfL Bochum see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bayer Leverkusen 40%, VfL Bochum 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Bayer Leverkusen and 80% for VfL Bochum. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bayer Leverkusen keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; VfL Bochum in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bayer Leverkusen home games / VfL Bochum away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bayer Leverkusen play VfL Bochum?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Bayer Leverkusen's recent matches and 40% of VfL Bochum's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bayer Leverkusen vs VfL Bochum usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Bayer Leverkusen's matches and 80% of VfL Bochum's.
Do Bayer Leverkusen and VfL Bochum tend to score early?
Bayer Leverkusen have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, VfL Bochum in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bayer Leverkusen edge out VfL Bochum 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayer Leverkusen beat VfL Bochum 1-0 at BayArena, Regular Season - 12, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayer Leverkusen 2.13 xG and VfL Bochum 1.04 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bayer Leverkusen fell 1.1 short of their projected output. VfL Bochum landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayer Leverkusen attack 0.99 / defence 1.27 against VfL Bochum attack 0.67 / defence 1.27, drawn from 45/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bayer Leverkusen 60% | Draw 24% | VfL Bochum 15%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayer Leverkusen 64%, VfL Bochum 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
VfL Bochum's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.18. That form edge translated into the three points. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.20 average — tighter than their form line. VfL Bochum (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.