Bayer Leverkusen 0-0 VfB Stuttgart – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen at 52% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
VfB Stuttgart make the trip to BayArena to face Bayer Leverkusen in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Friday 1 November 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bayer Leverkusen have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W D D W D. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at BayArena, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
VfB Stuttgart (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W D D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for VfB Stuttgart, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, VfB Stuttgart have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.10 for Bayer Leverkusen, 1.80 for VfB Stuttgart — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Bayer Leverkusen have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, VfB Stuttgart in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Across 6 previous meetings, Bayer Leverkusen are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 3 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Bayer Leverkusen and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Bayer Leverkusen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
VfB Stuttgart goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bayer Leverkusen 62% and VfB Stuttgart 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Bayer Leverkusen 76% | VfB Stuttgart 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bayer Leverkusen 2.44 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.289 / defence 1.106 | VfB Stuttgart attack 0.947 / defence 1.169. League average goals — home 1.622 / away 1.635. Bayer Leverkusen carry an above-average attack strength of 1.289 — their λ of 2.44 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 42 Bayer Leverkusen games / 42 VfB Stuttgart games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 52% | Draw 23% | VfB Stuttgart 25%. Fair-value odds: Bayer Leverkusen 1.92 | Draw 4.35 | VfB Stuttgart 4.00. Bayer Leverkusen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 78% | BTTS probability 77% | Total xG 4.16. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 78% — a total xG of 4.16 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 77% reflects that both xG figures (2.44 / 1.71) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bayer Leverkusen at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bayer Leverkusen if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 4.16 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 78% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 77% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bayer Leverkusen 80% | VfB Stuttgart 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: BayArena • Kick-off: Friday 1 Nov 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 52% | Draw 23% | VfB Stuttgart 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 78% | BTTS 77% | xG Bayer Leverkusen 2.44 / VfB Stuttgart 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.289 / def 1.106 | VfB Stuttgart attack 0.947 / def 1.169 | league avg home 1.622 / away 1.635 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (52%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.44
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Expected Goals
1.71
VfB Stuttgart xG
77%
BTTS
94%
Over 1.5
78%
Over 2.5
60%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart kick off?
Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 1 November 2024 at BayArena.
What was the final score in Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart?
Bayer Leverkusen 0 - 0 VfB Stuttgart.
Where is Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart being played?
The match is being played at BayArena.
What competition is Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart part of?
Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our statistical model gives Bayer Leverkusen a 52% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 25% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our model estimates a 77% probability that both Bayer Leverkusen and VfB Stuttgart will score (BTTS).
Will Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 78%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and VfB Stuttgart?
Record (6 meetings): Bayer Leverkusen 3W | Draws 3 | VfB Stuttgart 0W.
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and VfB Stuttgart in?
Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-D-W-D. VfB Stuttgart (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Bayer Leverkusen's attack rating (1.29) and VfB Stuttgart's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 2.44 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — VfB Stuttgart's attack (0.95x) against Bayer Leverkusen's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.71.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.4%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
52%
1.91
23%
4.43
25%
3.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
1 – 1
6.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.44
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Total xG
4.16
1.71
VfB Stuttgart xG
1.91
52%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
3.99
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
92%
Over 1.5
1.09
8%
Under 1.5
12.50
78%
Over 2.5
1.28
22%
Under 2.5
4.55
60%
Over 3.5
1.67
40%
Under 3.5
2.50
40%
Over 4.5
2.50
60%
Under 4.5
1.67
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
77%
BTTS Yes
1.31
23%
BTTS No
4.26
Clean Sheet
18%
5.54
9%
11.53
Win to Nil
9%
10.58
2%
45.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 3.8 | 6.6 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.0 | 6.9 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 6.5 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.0%.
How many goals are Bayer Leverkusen and VfB Stuttgart expected to score?
The model projects 2.44 expected goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.71 for VfB Stuttgart, a combined total of 4.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bayer Leverkusen's recent record stands at 32W 9D 1L from 42 games, a 2.50 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Bayer Leverkusen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VfB Stuttgart, meanwhile, have gone 26W 7D 9L across 42 games — 2.02 PPG, with W-D-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for VfB Stuttgart is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bayer Leverkusen by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over VfB Stuttgart heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Bayer Leverkusen have managed 16W 4D 1L from 21 games — 2.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
VfB Stuttgart's away record stands at 11W 2D 8L across 21 trips, a 1.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayer Leverkusen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bayer Leverkusen are averaging 2.60 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; VfB Stuttgart are on 2.26 scored and 1.31 conceded. VfB Stuttgart's attacking output running into Bayer Leverkusen's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Bayer Leverkusen have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; VfB Stuttgart in 62%.
Defensively: Bayer Leverkusen have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
VfB Stuttgart
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and VfB Stuttgart in coming into this match?
Bayer Leverkusen have gone 32W 9D 1L in their last 42 games (2.50 PPG), while VfB Stuttgart have gone 26W 7D 9L in their last 42 (2.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bayer Leverkusen at home or VfB Stuttgart away?
Bayer Leverkusen's home record (2.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bayer Leverkusen at home: 2.48 PPG; VfB Stuttgart away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Bayer Leverkusen or VfB Stuttgart been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bayer Leverkusen have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, VfB Stuttgart in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 9 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: VfB Stuttgart have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: VfB Stuttgart won 1-4 on 10 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against VfB Stuttgart — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bayer Leverkusen
4
Draws
2
VfB Stuttgart
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and VfB Stuttgart?
From 10 meetings on record, Bayer Leverkusen have won 4, VfB Stuttgart have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Bayer Leverkusen and VfB Stuttgart last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when VfB Stuttgart 3-1 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between Bayer Leverkusen and VfB Stuttgart?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
VfB Stuttgart are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bayer Leverkusen 62%, VfB Stuttgart 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for Bayer Leverkusen and 76% for VfB Stuttgart. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bayer Leverkusen keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bayer Leverkusen home games / VfB Stuttgart away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bayer Leverkusen play VfB Stuttgart?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Bayer Leverkusen's games and 57% of VfB Stuttgart's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bayer Leverkusen vs VfB Stuttgart usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of Bayer Leverkusen's matches and 76% of VfB Stuttgart's.
Do Bayer Leverkusen and VfB Stuttgart tend to score early?
Bayer Leverkusen have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, VfB Stuttgart in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bayer Leverkusen's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayer Leverkusen and VfB Stuttgart finished level at 0-0 at BayArena, Regular Season - 9, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayer Leverkusen 2.44 xG and VfB Stuttgart 1.71 xG, a combined 4.16. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Bayer Leverkusen fell 2.4 short of their projected output. VfB Stuttgart landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.29 / defence 1.11 against VfB Stuttgart attack 0.95 / defence 1.17, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bayer Leverkusen 52% | Draw 23% | VfB Stuttgart 25%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 78%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 94% and missed. Over 3.5 was 60% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 77% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 76% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayer Leverkusen 76%, VfB Stuttgart 76%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
VfB Stuttgart's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Bayer Leverkusen arrived the stronger side — 2.50 PPG against 2.02. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bayer Leverkusen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.71 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. VfB Stuttgart (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.62 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.