Bayer Leverkusen 2-2 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bayer Leverkusen at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Union Berlin make the trip to BayArena to face Bayer Leverkusen in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Saturday 8 January 2022 at 14:30 UTC.
Form
Bayer Leverkusen (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bayer Leverkusen have posted 5W 2D 3L at BayArena — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Bayer Leverkusen are significantly better at BayArena than their overall form suggests.
Union Berlin have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Union Berlin have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Bayer Leverkusen have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Union Berlin in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Bayer Leverkusen, 0 for Union Berlin and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Bayer Leverkusen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Union Berlin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bayer Leverkusen 63% and Union Berlin 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bayer Leverkusen 61% | Union Berlin 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bayer Leverkusen 1.80 xG and Union Berlin 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.146 / defence 1.135 | Union Berlin attack 0.927 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.313. Data: 51 Bayer Leverkusen games / 51 Union Berlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 46% | Draw 26% | Union Berlin 28%. Fair-value odds: Bayer Leverkusen 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Union Berlin 3.57. Bayer Leverkusen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.38) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bayer Leverkusen as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bayer Leverkusen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.18 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Bayer Leverkusen 60% | Union Berlin 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: BayArena • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Jan 2022, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 46% | Draw 26% | Union Berlin 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG Bayer Leverkusen 1.80 / Union Berlin 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.146 / def 1.135 | Union Berlin attack 0.927 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.712 / away 1.313 • Poisson stance: Bayer Leverkusen (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Union Berlin xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin kick off?
Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin kicked off at 14:30 on Saturday 8 January 2022 at BayArena.
What was the final score in Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin?
Bayer Leverkusen 2 - 2 Union Berlin.
Where is Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at BayArena.
What competition is Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin part of?
Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives Bayer Leverkusen a 46% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bayer Leverkusen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Bayer Leverkusen and Union Berlin will score (BTTS).
Will Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and Union Berlin?
Record (1 meetings): Bayer Leverkusen 0W | Draws 1 | Union Berlin 0W.
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and Union Berlin in?
Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Union Berlin (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Bayer Leverkusen's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Union Berlin's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.80. Flip it around — Union Berlin's attack (0.93x) against Bayer Leverkusen's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bayer Leverkusen Win
46%
2.18
26%
3.82
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Total xG
3.18
1.38
Union Berlin xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
25%
3.98
17%
6.05
Win to Nil
12%
8.69
5%
21.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 10.3 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.6 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Bayer Leverkusen and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.38 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bayer Leverkusen's recent record stands at 22W 14D 15L from 51 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Bayer Leverkusen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union Berlin, meanwhile, have gone 19W 20D 12L across 51 games — 1.51 PPG, with L-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.57 PPG for Bayer Leverkusen against 1.51 for Union Berlin. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Bayer Leverkusen have managed 12W 6D 7L from 25 games — 1.68 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union Berlin's away record stands at 6W 9D 10L across 25 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.51 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Union Berlin's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bayer Leverkusen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bayer Leverkusen are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 1.43 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bayer Leverkusen have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Union Berlin in 65%.
Last 51 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bayer Leverkusen
Blended
Union Berlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
Bayer Leverkusen have gone 22W 14D 15L in their last 51 games (1.57 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 19W 20D 12L in their last 51 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bayer Leverkusen at home or Union Berlin away?
Bayer Leverkusen's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bayer Leverkusen at home: 1.68 PPG; Union Berlin away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bayer Leverkusen won 5-0 on 6 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Union Berlin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Bayer Leverkusen
4
Draws
1
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and Union Berlin?
From 10 meetings on record, Bayer Leverkusen have won 5, Union Berlin have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Bayer Leverkusen and Union Berlin last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when Union Berlin 1-0 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who has won more matches between Bayer Leverkusen and Union Berlin?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Union Berlin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 72% for Bayer Leverkusen, 64% for Union Berlin — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Bayer Leverkusen) and 48% (Union Berlin). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bayer Leverkusen home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bayer Leverkusen play Union Berlin?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Bayer Leverkusen's games and 64% of Union Berlin's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bayer Leverkusen vs Union Berlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Bayer Leverkusen's matches and 48% of Union Berlin's.
Do Bayer Leverkusen and Union Berlin tend to score early?
Bayer Leverkusen have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Union Berlin in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bayer Leverkusen and Union Berlin share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayer Leverkusen and Union Berlin finished level at 2-2 at BayArena, Regular Season - 18, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayer Leverkusen 1.80 xG and Union Berlin 1.38 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayer Leverkusen attack 1.15 / defence 1.14 against Union Berlin attack 0.93 / defence 0.92, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bayer Leverkusen 46% | Draw 26% | Union Berlin 28%, with Bayer Leverkusen to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayer Leverkusen 61%, Union Berlin 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Union Berlin's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bayer Leverkusen 1.57 PPG, Union Berlin 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Union Berlin (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.