Bayer Leverkusen 3-1 FC Augsburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Augsburg at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bayer Leverkusen vs FC Augsburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
BayArena plays host to Bayer Leverkusen versus FC Augsburg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Monday 26 October 2020 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bayer Leverkusen have collected 1.50 PPG across 4 Bundesliga outings this season: 1W 3D 0L. Last five: D D D W. They are averaging 0.75 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Bayer Leverkusen have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Augsburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games (1.75 PPG). Last five: W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.25 per game is modest, conceding 0.75 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. FC Augsburg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.75 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Bayer Leverkusen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
FC Augsburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bayer Leverkusen 50% versus FC Augsburg 25%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bayer Leverkusen 0% | FC Augsburg 25%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bayer Leverkusen 1.07 xG and FC Augsburg 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bayer Leverkusen attack 0.922 / defence 1.098 | FC Augsburg attack 0.899 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.206 / away 1.348. Data: 4 Bayer Leverkusen games / 4 FC Augsburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 26% | Draw 35% | FC Augsburg 39%. Fair-value odds: Bayer Leverkusen 3.85 | Draw 2.86 | FC Augsburg 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Augsburg as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Augsburg if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Bayer Leverkusen 50% | FC Augsburg 25% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bayer Leverkusen vs FC Augsburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: BayArena • Kick-off: Monday 26 Oct 2020, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bayer Leverkusen 26% | Draw 35% | FC Augsburg 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 52% | xG Bayer Leverkusen 1.07 / FC Augsburg 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Bayer Leverkusen attack 0.922 / def 1.098 | FC Augsburg attack 0.899 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.206 / away 1.348 • Poisson stance: FC Augsburg (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Expected Goals
1.33
FC Augsburg xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bayer Leverkusen vs FC Augsburg kick off?
Bayer Leverkusen vs FC Augsburg kicked off at 19:30 on Monday 26 October 2020 at BayArena.
What was the final score in Bayer Leverkusen vs FC Augsburg?
Bayer Leverkusen 3 - 1 FC Augsburg.
Where is Bayer Leverkusen vs FC Augsburg being played?
The match is being played at BayArena.
What competition is Bayer Leverkusen vs FC Augsburg part of?
Bayer Leverkusen vs FC Augsburg is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Bayer Leverkusen vs FC Augsburg?
Our statistical model gives Bayer Leverkusen a 26% chance of winning, FC Augsburg a 39% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making FC Augsburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bayer Leverkusen vs FC Augsburg?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Bayer Leverkusen and FC Augsburg will score (BTTS).
Will Bayer Leverkusen vs FC Augsburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and FC Augsburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and FC Augsburg in?
Bayer Leverkusen (all comps): 1W-3D-0L in 4 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-D-D-W. FC Augsburg (all comps): 2W-1D-1L in 4 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 0.75 | L5 W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Bayer Leverkusen's attack at 0.92x the league average against FC Augsburg's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Augsburg's attack (0.90x) against Bayer Leverkusen's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Augsburg Win
26%
3.82
35%
2.85
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Bayer Leverkusen xG
Total xG
2.40
1.33
FC Augsburg xG
3.82
26%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
7%
14.44
13%
7.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bayer Leverkusen vs FC Augsburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Bayer Leverkusen and FC Augsburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.33 for FC Augsburg, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Bayer Leverkusen vs FC Augsburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bayer Leverkusen's recent record stands at 1W 3D 0L from 4 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with D-D-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Bayer Leverkusen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Augsburg, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 1L across 4 games — 1.75 PPG, with W-W-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Augsburg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Bayer Leverkusen against 1.75 for FC Augsburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bayer Leverkusen are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; FC Augsburg are on 1.25 scored and 0.75 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: FC Augsburg in 25%.
Defensively: Bayer Leverkusen have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; FC Augsburg in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bayer Leverkusen
Early Season
FC Augsburg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bayer Leverkusen and FC Augsburg in coming into this match?
Bayer Leverkusen have gone 1W 3D 0L in their last 4 games (1.50 PPG), while FC Augsburg have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 (1.75 PPG).
Have Bayer Leverkusen or FC Augsburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bayer Leverkusen have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, FC Augsburg in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
FC Augsburg go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bayer Leverkusen won 5-1 on 22 Jan 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bayer Leverkusen have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Augsburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Bayer Leverkusen
0
Draws
4
FC Augsburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bayer Leverkusen and FC Augsburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Bayer Leverkusen have won 6, FC Augsburg have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bayer Leverkusen and FC Augsburg last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Bayer Leverkusen 1-2 FC Augsburg.
Who has won more matches between Bayer Leverkusen and FC Augsburg?
Bayer Leverkusen have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bayer Leverkusen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
FC Augsburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bayer Leverkusen 50%, FC Augsburg 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Bayer Leverkusen and 25% for FC Augsburg.
On the defensive side: Bayer Leverkusen keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; FC Augsburg in 50%; FC Augsburg in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bayer Leverkusen home games / FC Augsburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bayer Leverkusen play FC Augsburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Bayer Leverkusen's recent matches and 25% of FC Augsburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bayer Leverkusen vs FC Augsburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Bayer Leverkusen's recent games and 25% of FC Augsburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bayer Leverkusen and FC Augsburg tend to score early?
Bayer Leverkusen have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, FC Augsburg in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bayer Leverkusen cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FC Augsburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bayer Leverkusen beat FC Augsburg 3-1 at BayArena, Regular Season - 5, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bayer Leverkusen 1.07 xG and FC Augsburg 1.33 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Bayer Leverkusen beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bayer Leverkusen attack 0.92 / defence 1.10 against FC Augsburg attack 0.90 / defence 0.96, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bayer Leverkusen 26% | Draw 35% | FC Augsburg 39%, with FC Augsburg to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Bayer Leverkusen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 12% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bayer Leverkusen 0%, FC Augsburg 25%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bayer Leverkusen's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Augsburg's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bayer Leverkusen 1.50 PPG, FC Augsburg 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bayer Leverkusen win broke the near-deadlock. Bayer Leverkusen scored 3 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm. FC Augsburg shipped 3 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.