Arminia Bielefeld 0-0 Union Berlin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Union Berlin at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Arminia Bielefeld vs Union Berlin fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
SchücoArena plays host to Arminia Bielefeld versus Union Berlin in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off: Sunday 7 March 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Arminia Bielefeld have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Arminia Bielefeld, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arminia Bielefeld's home record at SchücoArena: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Union Berlin's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Union Berlin, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Union Berlin have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Arminia Bielefeld 0W, Union Berlin 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2020, ended 0–5 with Union Berlin winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Arminia Bielefeld goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Union Berlin goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arminia Bielefeld 41% versus Union Berlin 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arminia Bielefeld 54% | Union Berlin 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arminia Bielefeld 0.96 xG and Union Berlin 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.741 / defence 1.315 | Union Berlin attack 0.733 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.187 / away 1.405. Arminia Bielefeld's attack strength of 0.741 is below the league average — the 0.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 22 Arminia Bielefeld games / 23 Union Berlin games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 25% | Draw 31% | Union Berlin 44%. Fair-value odds: Arminia Bielefeld 4.00 | Draw 3.23 | Union Berlin 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Union Berlin as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Union Berlin if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Arminia Bielefeld 40% | Union Berlin 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arminia Bielefeld vs Union Berlin | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: SchücoArena • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Mar 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 25% | Draw 31% | Union Berlin 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG Arminia Bielefeld 0.96 / Union Berlin 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.741 / def 1.315 | Union Berlin attack 0.733 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.187 / away 1.405 • Poisson stance: Union Berlin (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Union Berlin xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arminia Bielefeld vs Union Berlin kick off?
Arminia Bielefeld vs Union Berlin kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 7 March 2021 at SchücoArena.
What was the final score in Arminia Bielefeld vs Union Berlin?
Arminia Bielefeld 0 - 0 Union Berlin.
Where is Arminia Bielefeld vs Union Berlin being played?
The match is being played at SchücoArena.
What competition is Arminia Bielefeld vs Union Berlin part of?
Arminia Bielefeld vs Union Berlin is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Arminia Bielefeld vs Union Berlin?
Our statistical model gives Arminia Bielefeld a 25% chance of winning, Union Berlin a 44% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Union Berlin the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arminia Bielefeld vs Union Berlin?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Arminia Bielefeld and Union Berlin will score (BTTS).
Will Arminia Bielefeld vs Union Berlin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and Union Berlin?
Record (1 meetings): Arminia Bielefeld 0W | Draws 0 | Union Berlin 1W.
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and Union Berlin in?
Arminia Bielefeld (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Union Berlin (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Arminia Bielefeld's attack rating (0.74) and Union Berlin's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 0.96 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Union Berlin's attack (0.73x) against Arminia Bielefeld's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 22/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.8%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Union Berlin Win
25%
4.04
31%
3.24
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Total xG
2.31
1.35
Union Berlin xG
4.04
25%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
26%
3.88
38%
2.60
Win to Nil
6%
15.65
17%
5.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 13.4 | 9.1 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.1 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arminia Bielefeld vs Union Berlin?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Arminia Bielefeld and Union Berlin expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Arminia Bielefeld and 1.35 for Union Berlin, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Arminia Bielefeld vs Union Berlin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Arminia Bielefeld's recent record stands at 5W 3D 14L from 22 games, a 0.82 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Arminia Bielefeld is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Union Berlin, meanwhile, have gone 8W 10D 4L across 22 games — 1.55 PPG, with D-L-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Union Berlin is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Union Berlin by 0.73 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Arminia Bielefeld heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Arminia Bielefeld have managed 4W 0D 7L from 11 games — 1.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Union Berlin's away record stands at 4W 3D 4L across 11 trips, a 1.36 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Arminia Bielefeld are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Union Berlin are on 1.59 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Union Berlin in 64%.
Last 22 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arminia Bielefeld
Blended
Union Berlin
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and Union Berlin in coming into this match?
Arminia Bielefeld have gone 5W 3D 14L in their last 22 games (0.82 PPG), while Union Berlin have gone 8W 10D 4L in their last 22 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arminia Bielefeld at home or Union Berlin away?
Union Berlin's away record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arminia Bielefeld at home: 1.09 PPG; Union Berlin away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Union Berlin won 5-0 on 7 Nov 2020, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Arminia Bielefeld have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Union Berlin — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Arminia Bielefeld
1
Draws
2
Union Berlin
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and Union Berlin?
From 4 meetings on record, Arminia Bielefeld have won 1, Union Berlin have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Arminia Bielefeld and Union Berlin last play each other?
They last met on 19 February 2022, when Arminia Bielefeld 1-0 Union Berlin.
Who has won more matches between Arminia Bielefeld and Union Berlin?
Union Berlin have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Arminia Bielefeld see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Union Berlin see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arminia Bielefeld 36%, Union Berlin 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Arminia Bielefeld) and 46% (Union Berlin).
On the defensive side: Arminia Bielefeld have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arminia Bielefeld home games / Union Berlin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arminia Bielefeld play Union Berlin?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Arminia Bielefeld's recent matches and 64% of Union Berlin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Arminia Bielefeld vs Union Berlin usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Arminia Bielefeld's recent games and 46% of Union Berlin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Arminia Bielefeld's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arminia Bielefeld and Union Berlin finished level at 0-0 at SchücoArena, Regular Season - 24, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arminia Bielefeld 0.96 xG and Union Berlin 1.35 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Arminia Bielefeld fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Union Berlin landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.74 / defence 1.31 against Union Berlin attack 0.73 / defence 1.09, drawn from 22/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arminia Bielefeld 25% | Draw 31% | Union Berlin 44%, with Union Berlin to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arminia Bielefeld 54%, Union Berlin 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Union Berlin's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Union Berlin arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Arminia Bielefeld (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line. Union Berlin (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.