Arminia Bielefeld 1-0 SC Freiburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SC Freiburg at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Arminia Bielefeld vs SC Freiburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Arminia Bielefeld and SC Freiburg meet at SchücoArena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28. This fixture gets under way on Friday 9 April 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Current Form
Arminia Bielefeld's overall Bundesliga record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Arminia Bielefeld, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at SchücoArena, Arminia Bielefeld have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
SC Freiburg have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for SC Freiburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, SC Freiburg have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
SC Freiburg arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Arminia Bielefeld lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Dec 2020, ended 0–2 with SC Freiburg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Arminia Bielefeld — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
SC Freiburg — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arminia Bielefeld 41% versus SC Freiburg 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arminia Bielefeld 48% | SC Freiburg 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arminia Bielefeld 0.83 xG and SC Freiburg 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.587 / defence 1.220 | SC Freiburg attack 0.712 / defence 1.183. League average goals — home 1.196 / away 1.330. Arminia Bielefeld's attack strength of 0.587 is below the league average — the 0.83 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 27 Arminia Bielefeld games / 27 SC Freiburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 25% | Draw 33% | SC Freiburg 42%. Fair-value odds: Arminia Bielefeld 4.00 | Draw 3.03 | SC Freiburg 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SC Freiburg as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SC Freiburg if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.99 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Arminia Bielefeld 20% | SC Freiburg 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arminia Bielefeld vs SC Freiburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: SchücoArena • Kick-off: Friday 9 Apr 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arminia Bielefeld 25% | Draw 33% | SC Freiburg 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Arminia Bielefeld 0.83 / SC Freiburg 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.587 / def 1.220 | SC Freiburg attack 0.712 / def 1.183 | league avg home 1.196 / away 1.330 • Poisson stance: SC Freiburg (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Expected Goals
1.16
SC Freiburg xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arminia Bielefeld vs SC Freiburg kick off?
Arminia Bielefeld vs SC Freiburg kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 9 April 2021 at SchücoArena.
What was the final score in Arminia Bielefeld vs SC Freiburg?
Arminia Bielefeld 1 - 0 SC Freiburg.
Where is Arminia Bielefeld vs SC Freiburg being played?
The match is being played at SchücoArena.
What competition is Arminia Bielefeld vs SC Freiburg part of?
Arminia Bielefeld vs SC Freiburg is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Arminia Bielefeld vs SC Freiburg?
Our statistical model gives Arminia Bielefeld a 25% chance of winning, SC Freiburg a 42% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making SC Freiburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arminia Bielefeld vs SC Freiburg?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Arminia Bielefeld and SC Freiburg will score (BTTS).
Will Arminia Bielefeld vs SC Freiburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and SC Freiburg?
Record (1 meetings): Arminia Bielefeld 0W | Draws 0 | SC Freiburg 1W.
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and SC Freiburg in?
Arminia Bielefeld (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. SC Freiburg (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Arminia Bielefeld's attack rating (0.59) and SC Freiburg's defence rating (1.18), the model arrives at 0.83 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SC Freiburg's attack (0.71x) against Arminia Bielefeld's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 0-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Freiburg Win
25%
4.01
33%
3.03
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Arminia Bielefeld xG
Total xG
1.99
1.16
SC Freiburg xG
4.01
25%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
44%
2.29
Win to Nil
8%
12.73
18%
5.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 15.9 | 9.2 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.2 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arminia Bielefeld vs SC Freiburg?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Arminia Bielefeld and SC Freiburg expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Arminia Bielefeld and 1.16 for SC Freiburg, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Arminia Bielefeld vs SC Freiburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Arminia Bielefeld come into this having played 27 games, going 6W 5D 16L for 0.85 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-D. The sample for Arminia Bielefeld is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SC Freiburg sit at 1.37 PPG from 27 outings (10W 7D 10L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for SC Freiburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Freiburg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of Arminia Bielefeld — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Arminia Bielefeld's home form reads 3W 1D 9L across 13 games on their own ground, a 0.77 PPG return.
Away from home, SC Freiburg have taken 1.15 points per game from 13 outings (4W 3D 6L).
Attack vs Defence
Arminia Bielefeld are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; SC Freiburg are on 1.48 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arminia Bielefeld
Blended
SC Freiburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arminia Bielefeld and SC Freiburg in coming into this match?
Arminia Bielefeld have gone 6W 5D 16L in their last 27 games (0.85 PPG), while SC Freiburg have gone 10W 7D 10L in their last 27 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arminia Bielefeld at home or SC Freiburg away?
SC Freiburg's away record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arminia Bielefeld at home: 0.77 PPG; SC Freiburg away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Arminia Bielefeld have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against SC Freiburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Arminia Bielefeld
2
Draws
1
SC Freiburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arminia Bielefeld and SC Freiburg?
From 4 meetings on record, Arminia Bielefeld have won 1, SC Freiburg have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Arminia Bielefeld and SC Freiburg last play each other?
They last met on 8 January 2022, when SC Freiburg 2-2 Arminia Bielefeld.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Arminia Bielefeld see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
SC Freiburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Arminia Bielefeld 31%, SC Freiburg 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Arminia Bielefeld) and 62% (SC Freiburg).
On the defensive side: Arminia Bielefeld have failed to score in 54% of games; SC Freiburg in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arminia Bielefeld home games / SC Freiburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arminia Bielefeld play SC Freiburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Arminia Bielefeld's recent matches and 54% of SC Freiburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Arminia Bielefeld vs SC Freiburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Arminia Bielefeld's recent games and 62% of SC Freiburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Arminia Bielefeld and SC Freiburg tend to score early?
Arminia Bielefeld have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, SC Freiburg in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Arminia Bielefeld defy the odds to beat SC Freiburg 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arminia Bielefeld beat SC Freiburg 1-0 at SchücoArena, Regular Season - 28, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arminia Bielefeld 0.83 xG and SC Freiburg 1.16 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. SC Freiburg landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arminia Bielefeld attack 0.59 / defence 1.22 against SC Freiburg attack 0.71 / defence 1.18, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Arminia Bielefeld 25% | Draw 33% | SC Freiburg 42%, with SC Freiburg to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Arminia Bielefeld win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arminia Bielefeld 48%, SC Freiburg 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arminia Bielefeld's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not.
SC Freiburg's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Freiburg arrived the stronger side — 1.37 PPG against 0.85. Form was overturned, with Arminia Bielefeld winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Arminia Bielefeld (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line. SC Freiburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.